In a Major League Baseball season, the numbers you see in April aren’t necessary what will be there come September. The Opta preseason projections were out in front of some numbers and others now reflect atop or at the bottom of advanced leaderboards. Will they last?
To the moon and beyond: The quick starters to the MLB season want to resemble Artemis 2 by pushing their numbers even further.
The ones off to a slow start? Well, they’re trying to dig some stats out of one of those newly discovered craters on the moon.
The advanced data within the Opta leaderboards and in projections go beyond traditional MLB stats to help answer what’s sustainable this season.
The advanced data update throughout the season. Just two weeks into the 2026 campaign, we’re looking at five examples that stand out – for better or worse.
95
Atlanta’s win projection.
Surprise, surprise? Well, no, don’t be, it’s sustainable, even with the Braves coming off a 76-86 season that was their first below .500 since 2017.
The Opta preseason win projection for the Braves was 93 (rounded up from 92.7 after all those preseason simulations), and that trailed only the Los Angeles Dodgers (99), who have won the last two World Series.
Now, it would help first-year manager Walt Weiss’ team to get the injured Spencers back on the mound – Spencer Strider should be back much more sooner than Spencer Schwellenbach – but opposing pitchers don’t necessarily like to navigate a Braves lineup that isn’t even led by Ronald Acuna Jr. right now. Drake Baldwin, the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year, ranks sixth with a 190 RV+ (100 is league average for raw value), and is tied for the most home runs (five) and has the most RBIs (15) in MLB.
77.5
Toronto’s win projection.
So you want underachieving to help balance out the win projection? The Blue Jays are right there in the middle between 77 and 78, and it’s looking more like they could go in either direction.
Yeah, seriously. Vlad Jr. and Co. were oh-so-close to beating the Dodgers in the World Series, but they were only seventh in our model’s AL preseason projections with 82.7 wins.
Maybe salvaging a series-ending win to cap this week’s rematch with the Dodgers will spur the Blue Jays (5-7) back to more even play. They had a 4-1 start (with a 5.2 run average), then a six-game losing streak (with a 1.8 run average). While some of their offensive numbers remain average, they’re second from the bottom in extra-base hits (25) and run differential per game (-1.83).
14
Sandy Alcantara’s RV-.
That number is simply off the charts, and it’s been forged with the league’s most innings pitched (24.1). For contrast, last year’s Cy Young Award winners also were off the charts with Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes delivering a 41 RV- and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal a 44 RV-. OK, we’ll term Alcantara’s current number as off, off the charts.
Lower than 100 league average is better for RV-, but the depth of Alcantara’s number is not sustainable – nor is his 0.74 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and one extra base hit allowed (actually that didn’t occur until he was into his 25th inning). You might think otherwise if you’ve seen the movement of his four-seamer – he’s 10th in strike+.
The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner hinted at a return to elite form over the final month and a half of last season, and it’s looking like it’s here to stay. He missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery, then opened last season with a disastrous 6-11 record, 6.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .272 batting average against in his first 23 starts.
It all clicked in his final eight starts: 5-1/2.68 ERA/0.86 WHIP/.185 BAA while he worked at least six innings in every outing.
200
The RV+ of five hitters.
The young hitters have taken over in MLB. Surely, you keep hearing about rookies such as Konnor Griffin, Keven McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt, who all debuted this season and seem ready to realize all the hype.
But other youth is represented among the five hitters who are above 200 RV+: Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart (234, first), the New York Yankees’ Ben Rice (206, third) and St. Louis’ Jordan Walker (201, fifth), who’ve all debuted in recent years and now have grabbed the cleanup spot in their respective lineup.
Add in the aforementioned Drake Baldwin (190 RV+, sixth) down in Atlanta, and MLB has a bright future. Many of these younger hitters suggest the production will last.
45
Cal Raleigh’s RV+.
It’s not the worst RV+ among qualifying hitters (the Big Dumper would like to thank another backstop, Yainer Diaz, for his 17 RV+).
But it’s a stunning start for the runner-up for 2025 AL MVP coming off the first-ever 60-home run season by a catcher. The Seattle Mariners slugger has one round-tripper and a .143 batting average with 21 strikeouts in 49 at-bats (Opta’s XK% is a slightly more-kind 0.32).
A switch-hitter, Raleigh is probably bound to pick up the hitting soon – just not as last year’s level. But note the lack of hitting is contagious: the Mariners (an MLB-worst 4-9) are batting .184, which over a season would be worse than all be three teams (1932 Newark Bears, .169; 1884 Wilmington Quicksteps, .175; and 1884 St. Paul Saints, .180).
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Getting It Started: Will These Early MLB Stats Last or Fade Away? Opta Analyst.
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