Small-sample, early-season Wins Above Replacement is not really a metric that is all that helpful. There’s a lot of noise in the underlying data, especially on the defensive side, and there isn’t much predictive value for a guy balling out over 12 games.
HOWEVER, it is nevertheless fun when a Chicago Cubs player sits atop the WAR leaderboard at any given time.
Such is the case for newly-extended second baseman Nico Hoerner, who is tied for the WAR lead by whichever iteration of the metric you prefer (1.0 at FanGraphs, 1.2 at Baseball-Reference). Hoerner, who is hitting .333/.453/.548/183 wRC+ here in the early going, has already stolen five bases and is playing his typically superlative defense at second base. There’s no phase of the game where he struggles, and it’s nice to see his overall value captured in the WAR metric. At least for today.
At 1.0 WAR, Nico Hoerner has been the most valuable player in baseball so far this season. pic.twitter.com/PH1IsS0kf4
— Brett Taylor (@Brett_A_Taylor) April 9, 2026Last night’s leadoff homer was also good to see, because even though power isn’t a critical component of Hoerner’s game, it is an area where even just a little improvement would go a long way in boosting his overall productivity.
For Nico Hoerner’s part, it sounds like he still isn’t really trying to hit home runs up there, which isn’t a bad thing. You have to understand your strengths and weaknesses, and know how you can be the best version of yourself. Maybe that means running into some home runs from time to time as the byproduct of a good at bat and good swings, but it doesn’t necessarily mean trying to force them:
“We’re well aware as players things that we don’t do at a high level or things that we can do better, and it’s part of my game that I don’t do it at a high level, but what do you do with that?” Hoerner told the Chicago Tribune after the Cubs win over the Rays. “And for me, I’ve had stretches where I’ve thought of hitting for power as taking chances and big swings, and I think that’s taken me away from some of my strengths and has honestly been a little sloppy and not the best version of myself. But I also don’t regret those times because I think it’s all part of figuring out who you are as a player ….
“Hitting for power isn’t necessarily hitting home runs for me,” Hoerner said. “I’m not going into at-bats trying to hit home runs. But I do want to get pitches that I can drive. I want to hit balls hard on high line drives, preferably to the pull side in the air, but not getting away from the things that make myself, myself.”
That’s a very mature attitude, and one that can yield incremental improvements as a player picks up more experience as Hoerner has. Leaning into your physical gifts, staying within yourself, and learning about what’s addressable (and what isn’t).
I love the idea that, despite his relatively huge 2025 season, we still haven’t even seen the best of Nico Hoerner. Maybe he won’t quite be at a “lead all of baseball in WAR” level come September, but it’s not like it’s THAT far of a stretch, given what he did last year.
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