Do Out-of-Form Liverpool Stand Any Chance Against All-Conquering PSG? ...Middle East

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Do Out-of-Form Liverpool Stand Any Chance Against All-Conquering PSG?

Liverpool face Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League knockouts for a second season running. Arne Slot’s side go into their quarter-final in much worse shape than last time, though.

On 5 March 2025, Liverpool travelled to take on Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League. The Reds had a 13-point lead at the top of the Premier League and came away from the Parc des Princes with a 1-0 victory after the first leg. That did not tell the whole story, though.

    PSG dominated large parts of that game, attempting 27 shots and forcing a remarkable nine saves out of Liverpool’s Alisson, the joint most by a goalkeeper in a Champions League knockout game.

    Liverpool won thanks to a late goal from substitute Harvey Elliott, despite having 25 fewer shots (2 to 27). It was the joint-biggest negative difference in shots by a winning team on record (from 2003-04) in a Champions League knockout game (after PSG vs Bayern in April 2021).

    Luis Enrique’s men did get revenge in the return leg, beating Liverpool 1-0 at Anfield despite the hosts having almost twice as many shots as the Ligue 1 side in normal time (18-10). PSG ultimately won on penalties, before going on to lift the trophy for the first time after thrashing Inter in the final last May.

    Liverpool averaged just 38.6% possession and had 14 fewer shots on target than PSG over the two legs (4 for, 18 against); it’s their biggest negative shots-on-target differential in a Champions League knockout tie on record (since 2003-04).

    They have been paired with PSG once more, this time in the quarter-finals of this season’s competition, with the first leg in the French capital again. Liverpool arrive in Paris in far worse shape than last time, though. Fifth in the league, they are closer in terms of points to 14th than top, and they are fresh off a humbling by Manchester City in the FA Cup at the weekend.

    It has been a bit of a running joke that Arne Slot has regularly referenced those PSG games in his press conferences, both due to his obvious frustration at going out on penalties, but also his admiration for how both games were played. He has claimed multiple times that it was exactly how he wants football to be, even though his team ultimately lost.

    The Reds boss has pointed to the trend towards defensive and direct football in the Premier League being an issue for his team for much of the 2025-26 campaign, and he clearly wishes more opponents played like PSG, as he believes it is far more entertaining.

    After the second leg last season, Slot claimed it was “the best game of football that I was ever involved in.”

    Then, prior to the 0-0 draw with Arsenal in January, he was asked about his preferred style of football. “My football is Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool, Liverpool vs Paris Saint-Germain,” he said. “That is how I would love to have every single game, but you need two teams to have an open game of football and not all these things that don’t make a game of football nice.

    “Against Fulham [a 2-2 draw in January], I don’t think many people thought it was a joy to watch. I have said many times I found our games against Paris Saint-Germain a joy to watch. So, compare these games with each other and ask yourself why one is a joy to watch and the other is harder to watch.”

    The former Feyenoord boss seemingly wanted his team to eventually evolve into a devastating force like PSG, potentially providing a stronger challenge to the giants of Europe in the Champions League while tightening their stranglehold on the Premier League.

    It’s fair to say that hasn’t happened.

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    Prior to meeting PSG in the Champions League round of 16 last season, Slot’s Liverpool had played 43 games in all competitions since his arrival in the summer of 2024, winning 32 (74.4%), drawing seven (16.3%) and losing just four (9.3%).

    Since they were knocked out by the eventual European champions, they have played 58 games, winning 29 (50%), drawing 10 (17.2%) and losing 19 (32.8%). Liverpool have gone from losing fewer than 10% of their games under Slot before PSG last season to being defeated in almost a third of their games since.

    By comparison, since beating Liverpool last season, PSG have played 67 matches in all competitions, winning 45 (67.2%), drawing 10 (14.9%) and losing 12 (17.9%).

    You would think facing PSG just over a year later would provide the perfect opportunity for Liverpool to show their development in that time, but the debate around Anfield right now is a long way from wondering how far they’ve come, rather contemplating just how far they’ve fallen.

    Heading into their round-of-16 tie last season, the Opta supercomputer judged Liverpool to be favourites to advance (58.3%). This time, it is PSG who made it through in the majority of its 10,000 simulations (59.6%).

    Just looking at the first leg in Paris, Liverpool had a 34.4% win probability last season, compared to this season’s 24.3%.

    That is understandable given the Premier League champions come into this tie seventh in the Opta Power Rankings, two places below PSG, whereas last season they went into their first leg in first place, three places above their opponents.

    Their emphatic comeback in the second leg of their last-16 tie with Galatasaray last month hinted at solutions being found. Mohamed Salah in particular shone in their 4-0 win at Anfield to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg in Istanbul, in what we now know will be his final Champions League campaign for Liverpool.

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    However, an insipid 2-1 loss at Brighton followed, while a chastening 4-0 hammering at Manchester City in the FA Cup on Saturday was hardly ideal preparation for travelling to Paris. It was the biggest defeat Liverpool have suffered under Slot, and only the second time they had conceded four times in a game since his arrival, after losing 4-1 at home to PSV in the league phase of the Champions League in November.

    While this season has been a poor one for Liverpool, it would be remiss to not look back a little further. They ultimately won the Premier League title, but were noticeably starting to run out of steam by this point last term. They limply lost the League Cup final to Newcastle United immediately after elimination from the Champions League by PSG, also losing 3-2 at Fulham in the league around laboured one-goal victories over Everton, West Ham and Leicester City.

    They did thrash Tottenham 5-1 to clinch the title on a memorable afternoon at Anfield in April 2025, but they didn’t win any more games after that (D2 L2) as they seemed to really take their foot off the gas after securing first place. That win over a Spurs side with two eyes on the Europa League by that point was arguably Liverpool’s only convincing performance between the start of March and the end of the 2024-25 campaign.

    This season has had ups and downs, such as their five-game winning streak to start in the league, though that always felt like a house of cards, and ultimately proved to be. Even their 13-game unbeaten run in the middle of the season included disappointing home draws against promoted trio Sunderland, Leeds and Burnley.

    Liverpool have produced some excellent performances in the Champions League, though, including wins over Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid, Inter and Marseille in the league phase, as well as that home win over Galatasaray that could easily have seen them score twice as many as they did.

    It is the Premier League where they have really struggled for consistency, and that they still have a decent chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League is more down to the stumbling of others than their own performances, as well as England almost certainly getting a fifth qualifying spot once again.

    Reports suggest the club’s hierarchy remain behind Slot, understanding the difficult circumstances and giving him the benefit of the doubt after his remarkable title win last season.

    That patience won’t last forever, though, and arguably more so than results, it is Liverpool’s performances that must improve. As PSG know all too well, you can play very well and still lose, but it’s difficult to think of many occasions this season when Liverpool have deserved more in defeat.

    On the biggest stage against arguably the best opposition is the perfect opportunity for Slot and his players to prove people wrong, and to show they remain a strong team with a head coach who can elicit a top performance out of them in a massive game.

    The alternative is that they are picked apart by PSG, as Chelsea were in the last 16, and the distance between where they are and where they want to be is highlighted even more.

    PSG have a tremendous recent record against Premier League teams. They are unbeaten in their last six Champions League games against English sides (W5 D1) and have progressed from all four of their knockout ties against English opponents since the start of last season (Liverpool, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Chelsea).

    It is somewhat symbolic that the two stars of Liverpool’s unlikely 1-0 win in Paris last season will not be there this time. Alisson is out injured, while Elliott has spent the season on loan at Aston Villa, albeit not doing very much due to former PSG boss Unai Emery seemingly having little faith in him.

    It is time for new heroes to emerge. Alexander Isak is back from a broken leg, though unlikely to start, while Florian Wirtz is due a big performance and often looks better in the Champions League. The German has created 27 chances from open play in nine Champions League games for Liverpool, already the most on record by a player in their first 10 games for an English club on record in the competition (since 2003-04).

    There is also this season’s top scorer, Hugo Ekitiké (17 goals in all competitions), who will surely want to make an impact against his former club.

    Slot said the games between his team and PSG last season were “a joy to watch”. Given Liverpool’s current form, it’s difficult to imagine these two legs being enjoyed by anyone of a Reds persuasion from anywhere other than behind the sofa.

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    Do Out-of-Form Liverpool Stand Any Chance Against All-Conquering PSG? Opta Analyst.

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