Just hours remain until Donald Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face “hell”.
The US President has vowed to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran fails to ease its grip on the vital chokepoint by 8pm Eastern Time on Tuesday (1am Wednesday BST).
It is not the first time Trump has put a deadline on his demands since US and Israeli strikes began, having previously given Iran 48 hours to reopen the strait on 21 March.
As global oil prices continue to soar because of the closure, domestic and international pressure is mounting on Washington to find an off-ramp.
Tehran has shown little willingness to concede to American demands over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians on Monday rejected a ceasefire proposal, instead signalling their desire for a permanent end to the war.
Trump has warned the whole country could be “taken out in one night” if his demands are not met by Tuesday evening. But, as Iran well knows, the President has few options if he intends to follow through on his threats.
US President Donald Trump mimics firing a gun as he speaks about the conflict in Iran during a White House press briefing on Monday (Photo: Kent Nishimura / AFP via Getty Images)Ground operations
More than 50,000 US troops, along with aircraft and warships, have converged on the Middle East, prompting speculation that Trump could be plotting a ground operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the rescue of a US colonel from deep inside Iranian territory after an F-15 fighter jet was shot down, the White House may feel emboldened to commit more troops to combat inside Iran.
But any attempt to put boots on the ground in Iran is fraught with both political and military risk.
The war in Iran is already domestically unpopular in the US, with Pew Research data suggesting six in ten Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the matter. A full-scale land assault would almost certainly mean more American casualties – and drive public opinion more staunchly against the war.
Not only this, but Iran’s geography and military would make any land warfare a profound challenge for invading forces. A large and heavily mountainous country, Iran’s terrain gives it substantial natural defences against its enemies. Dr Adam Hanieh of the Soas Middle East Institute told The i Paper that a US ground campaign would face “major problems”.
“Iran is a large, densely populated country with difficult terrain, which makes any occupation qualitatively different from previous US invasions such as Iraq in 2003,” he said.
Tehran is also ramping up its defences in preparation, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Tehran is pouring assets in to protecting its largest oil port and ramping up recruitment.
Limited attacks into Iran
Trump could instead opt for more targeted raids. A Pentagon official recently told The Washington Post that operations could be more limited in their scope.
Options include seizing key locations to force open the Strait of Hormuz or going after Iran’s uranium stockpiles. Trump has hinted that he has drawn up plans for a raid to take control of the key Iranian oil terminal at Kharg Island, from where the bulk of Tehran’s oil exports depart.
The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the disruption to the global economy will be. However, limited action would carry its own risks for Trump.
Hanieh said: “Even a limited operation around the Strait of Hormuz would be exposed to asymmetric retaliation such as mines, drones, and missile strikes that raise the cost of maintaining control.
“Iran’s strategy is not to defeat the US conventionally, but to widen the conflict across the region, targeting energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and allied states.
“So the key problem is not simply military feasibility, but that any ground operation would likely deepen the crisis it is supposed to resolve.”
Iran’s nuclear materials are believed to be deep underground and far inside the country, presenting a logistical challenge for any military operation to seize it.
Targeted bombing campaigns
Trump might decide against ground operations in Iran, instead continuing air strikes and bombing campaigns to force Iran into submission.
The President has already warned that “all hell would rain down” on Iran if the regime refuses to bend to his demands.
But this strategy has already thrown up issues for America and its allies, with the Gulf States bearing much of the brunt of Iran’s retaliation to US and Israeli attacks.
Tehran has shown little sign of buckling, despite the ongoing onslaught.
Trump might seek to use targeted strikes to cripple Iran’s infrastructure and nuclear programmes, but the wider region would continue to burn until either side gave way.
“Iran’s strategy is not to defeat the US conventionally, but to widen the conflict across the region, targeting energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, and allied states,” Hanieh added.
“Iran can raise the costs of confrontation through the disrupting the position of the Gulf in the global economy, but it does so within a regional order where the US and Israel still hold the capacity to inflict significant and long-lasting military damage to lives and infrastructure.”
International observers have expressed concern that attacks on civilian infrastructure could be classified as war crimes.
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