The official announcement that JD Vance was to visit, days before Hungarians cast their ballots in a hotly contested election, was greeted by Budapest with no less than four exclamation marks and three emojis.
“!!Official!!” Viktor Orbán’s political director, Balázs Orbán, wrote on social media as he confirmed the news. The White House said Vance, along with his wife Usha, will land in Hungary on Tuesday, in what is widely seen as an attempt to bolster Orbán as he trails in the polls.
But the US isn’t the only country throwing its weight behind Orbán. Support has also apparently come from Hungary’s east, as Russian intelligence agencies, along with disinformation networks with links to Russia, are alleged to be working to sway the election.
Questions have begun to swirl as to why the two countries appear to agree on the need to keep Orbán – who once described Hungary as a “petri dish for illiberalism” – in power.
“That is somewhat ironic, isn’t it?” said Jeremy Shapiro, the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “If you would have asked me five years ago: ‘Would that happen?’ I would certainly say no.”
Hungarian prime minister Orban meets Russian President Putin in Moscow in 2024. Photograph: Vivien Cher Benko/HUNGARIAN PM’S PRESS OFFICE HANDOUT/EPAIt was a glimpse of how US-Russian relations had transformed of late, he said. “On one level, the US and Russia are sort of playing their old rivalry games, but on another level, they seem to be aligning ideologically in terms of their commitment to, let’s say, a white nationalist Christian civilisational ethic.”
As the central European country prepares to head to the ballot, the election in a country of about 9.5 million has taken on an outsized importance. Donald Trump has repeatedly endorsed Orbán, describing him as a “fantastic guy” and a “strong and powerful leader”.
Hungary, long seen by many as pro-Russian and a “bit of a Russian mole” within the EU and Nato, had not changed, nor had Russia, said Shapiro. “It’s the US that has changed here,” Shapiro said. “The US has essentially realigned itself ideologically and redefined its relationship with Russia. Viktor Orbán is ground zero of that because he’s the clearest sort of white Christian civilisational leader in Europe, and he’s the one who has had the most ideological impact and exchange with the Trump administration.”
Trump and those around him have long talked up Hungary, depicting it, in the words of one local journalist, as a sort of “Christian conservative Disneyland”.
The veneration has continued, even as Hungary plunged in press freedom rankings, faced accusations of no longer being a full democracy, and according to Transparency International, became the most corrupt country in the EU.
Orbán’s efforts to foster a warm relationship with the Trump administration stands in sharp contrast to his dealings with the EU, where the relationship has plunged to new lows amid clashes on migration, LGBTQ+ rights and, most recently, Orbán’s refusal to sign off on a €90bn loan to Ukraine.
In February, Marco Rubio was candid about the extent to which the Trump administration was prepared to back Orbán. “I can say to you with confidence that President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success,” the US secretary of state told Orbán at a press conference.
If Orbán were to face struggles, Trump would be “very interested” in finding ways to help, Rubio added. “We want this country to do well. It’s in our national interest, especially as long as you’re the prime minister and the leader of this country.”
The Ukraine war is taking centre stage in Hungarian election campaign. ‘Our message to Brussels is that we will not pay’ reads the poster. Photograph: Bernadett Szabó/ReutersWeeks later, reports began to emerge of the lengths that Russia also appeared to be going to in order to secure Orbán’s victory. The Washington Post reported that Russian intelligence operatives had proposed staging an assassination attempt on Orbán to bolster his chances of winning, while the Guardian found that disinformation networks with links to Russia were publishing content aimed at undermining Orbán’s main opponent.
It may be too soon to conclude that Russia and the US are on the same side, however, as their motivations are distinctly different, said Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
“For the Russians, having Orbán as the fifth column in the EU – as someone who can derail or block or slow down European decision-making or as a conduit for intelligence operations – is quite useful. He has rendered many services to the Russians over the years,” he said.
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