We’ve simulated the NCAA women’s basketball tournament thousands of times to find the chances of teams advancing throughout March Madness. With UConn, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas in the Final Four, we’re back to where the original bracket started.
It was easy to want to skip to the final chapters, but, sure enough, the storyline of the women’s NCAA Tournament has wound to the exciting part.
It’s all about to get really good.
As was originally anticipated with the 68-team bracket, last year’s Final Four teams are all back for this year’s big weekend in Phoenix – a repeat scenario that occurred previously only in 1995 and ’96.
It’s also the fifth time the women’s Final Four is comprised of only No. 1 seeds, with defending champion UConn, South Carolina, UCLA and Texas combining on a 143-7 record – and four of those losses are head-to-head within the foursome.
Make no mistake, this is not the UConn Invitational, even through coach Geno Auriemma’s powerhouse has won 54 straight games, is making its record 25th Final Four appearance – 10 more than the other three programs combined – and owns 12 national titles, with Tennessee (eight) the only other program above three.
Final Four Schedule
All Times ET
Friday – Semifinals (ESPN)
South Carolina (35-3) vs. UConn (38-0), 7 p.m. Texas (35-3) vs. UCLA (35-1), 9:30 p.m.Sunday – Championship (ABC)
Semifinal winners, 3:30 p.m.In the first of Friday night’s semifinals, UConn is taking on a South Carolina program that it defeated 82-59 in last year’s national championship game, but the Gamecocks have won three titles since 2017. UCLA enters the nightcap with a 29-game winning streak, but only since it lost to a Texas squad that also won two of its three meetings with South Carolina.
Individually, there’s a Who’s Who of All-Americans, led by UConn sophomore forward Sarah Strong and with the women’s Final Four including 11 players ranked in the top 26 of DRIP and 16 of the top 37 in WAR.
For March Madness predictions, we’ve simulated the tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
Overall championship probabilities as of March 31.Women’s Final Four
No. 1 South Carolina (35-3) vs. No. 1 UConn (38-0)
Tipoff – 7 p.m. ET Friday (ESPN)
Win Probability – South Carolina: 39.0%; UConn: 61.0%
TRACR Ranking – South Carolina: 67.2 (fourth in NCAA Division I); UConn: 73.2 (first)
Offensive TRACR – South Carolina: 39.7 (second); UConn: 38.2 (fourth)
Defensive TRACR – South Carolina: -27.5 (third); UConn: -35.0 (first)
NCAA Tournament Wins – South Carolina (Sacramento 4 Regional): Southern, 103-34 (first round); USC, 101-61 (second round); Oklahoma, 94-68 (Sweet 16); TCU, 78-52 (Elite Eight). UConn (Fort Worth 1 Regional): UTSA, 90-52 (first round); Syracuse, 98-45 (second round); North Carolina, 63-42 (Sweet 16); Notre Dame, 70-52 (Elite Eight).
UConn is seeking to become the first repeat national champion since its 2013-16 teams won four titles in a row.Coaches – South Carolina: Dawn Staley (18th season); UConn: Geno Auriemma (41st season)
3 Key Players – South Carolina: Joyce Edwards, 6-3 forward (19.7 ppg, 58.2 FG%, 6.7 rpg); Raven Johnson, 5-9 guard (10.2 ppg, 5.3 apg, 57 steals); Madina Okot, 6-6 center (13.2 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 55 blocked shots). UConn: Sarah Strong, 6-2 forward (18.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 60 blocked shots); Azzie Fudd, 5-11 guard (17.5 ppg, 45.5 3-point%, 3.1 apg); KK Arnold, 5-9 guard (7.1 ppg, 3.95 assist-to-turnover ratio).
What to Know – UConn leads the all-time series 11-5, including 2-1 in NCAA Tournament meetings. … The Big East champion Huskies are ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense (50.1 points per game), and it drops even lower in the tourney (47.8) while they’ve also led the field in steals per game (16.5) and turnovers forced per game (22.3). … Strong ranks No. 1 in DRIP and No. 2 in WAR, while Fudd – the most outstanding player of last year’s Final Four – is sixth and fourth, respectively. … The first four players off the UConn bench all shoot over 50%, with 6-2 freshman Bianca Quinonez surging in the tourney (17.3 ppg, including 9 of 19 on 3-pointers, and 10 steals). … South Carolina spreads the wealth with all five starters scoring in double figures (also Ta’Niya Latson, 14.4, and Tessa Johnson, 12.9). Latson, a Florida State transfer, leads active D-I players in career points (2,569). … While UConn is No. 1 in FG% defense for the season, the Gamecocks are No. 1 in the NCAA Tournament (32.0), adding in a +17.8 average rebounding margin that also tops the field. … Freshman guard Agot Makeer has come alive for the SEC regular-season champion with four straight games of 10+ points after having only three combined entering the NCAAs.
No. 1 Texas (35-3) vs. No. 1 UCLA (35-1)
Tipoff – 9:30 p.m. ET Friday (ESPN)
Win Probability – Texas: 46.7%; UCLA: 53.3%
TRACR Ranking – Texas: 66.8 (third in NCAA Division I); UCLA: 69.2 (second)
Offensive TRACR – Texas: 36.3 (fifth); UCLA: 43.1 (first)
Defensive TRACR – Texas: -30.5 (second); UCLA: -26.1 (fourth)
NCAA Tournament Wins – Texas (Fort Worth 3 Regional): Missouri State, 87-45 (first round); Oregon, 100-58 (second round); Kentucky, 76-54 (Sweet 16); Michigan, 77-41 (Elite Eight); UCLA (Sacramento 2 Regional): Cal Baptist, 96-43 (first round); Oklahoma State, 87-68 (second round); Minnesota, 80-56 (Sweet 16); Duke, 70-58 (Elite Eight)
The women’s Final Four teams have won all of their NCAA Tournament games by double figures.Coaches – Texas: Vic Schaefer (sixth season); UCLA: Cori Close (15th season)
3 Key Players – Texas: Madison Booker, 6-1 forward (19.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 3.8 apg); Jordan Lee (13.3 ppg, 71 3-pointers, 2.6 apg); Rori Harmon, 5-6 guard (8.4 ppg, 6.3 apg, 105 steals). UCLA: Lauren Betts, 6-7 center (17.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 71 blocked shots); Kiki Rice, 5-11 guard (15.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 4.3 apg); Gianna Kneepkens, 6-0 guard (12.8 ppg, 42.9 3-point%, 2.9 apg).
What to Know – Texas leads the all-time series 8-6, including a 76-65 win on Nov. 26 in Las Vegas to hand UCLA its only loss of the season. Harmon (972 assists in 156 career games) led the Longhorns with 26 points and five assists, while UCLA committed 20 turnovers. … Booker ranks third in WAR, with Lee (11) and Harmon (12) not far behind, but UCLA has five players in the top 18, led by Rice at No. 7. … Lee is the only Longhorn with more than 23 3-pointers as the team averages only 4.3 made per game (a mere 324 ranking out of 363 D-I teams). … Texas starts 6-4 Breya Cunningham and brings 6-6 Kyle Oldacre off the bench, but UCLA generally has a size advantage, led by the 6-7 Betts. In the NCAAs, the Bruins have scored 50+ points in the paint in each win, and 52.5 on average. … UCLA has gained 89.4% of its points from seniors for the highest percentage in D-I. … Rice has made an NCAA Tournament-high 25 free throws with just one miss, and is shooting 90.3% for the season. … Texas captured the 1986 D-I national title; in 1978, UCLA won the AIAW Tournament that was a precursor to the women’s NCAAs.
Potential Championship Matchups (Win Probability)
UConn annually plays tough nonconference opposition, but its regular season schedule appeared weaker than usual because it didn’t include UCLA, Texas and South Carolina. Or LSU (No. 5 TRACR), for that matter.
Texas comes out favorably among the Final Four teams, having gone 2-1 versus South Carolina and 1-0 against UCLA. South Carolina and UCLA did not play each other.
UCLA (41.7%) vs. UConn (58.3%)
Texas (36.8%) vs. UConn (63.2%)
South Carolina (45.6%) vs. UCLA (54.4%)
South Carolina (50.8%) vs. Texas (49.2%)
For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
Women’s Final Four Predictions: UConn Faces a Challenge in Repeat Clash of Titans Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about women s final four predictions uconn faces a challenge in repeat clash of titans was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Women’s Final Four Predictions: UConn Faces a Challenge in Repeat Clash of Titans )
Also on site :
- Hezbollah Denies Bahraini Interior Ministry& 039;s Baseless Allegations
- Sabrina Carpenter, Bad Bunny, Taylor Swift & More Nominated for 2026 Webby Awards
- The 5 TV Premieres We're Most Excited for in April 2026