Alex Bregman’s Elite Early Swing Data is Encouraging ...Middle East

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Alex Bregman’s Elite Early Swing Data is Encouraging

Overall, it’s been a productive first four games for the new Cubs third baseman, Alex Bregman, who is slashing .235/.316/.588 (153 wRC+) with two homers, two strikeouts, and two walks through 19 plate appearances. The sample size is obviously meaningless, especially when you’re talking about results, but it’s been nice to see nonetheless.

What is a little less meaningless, and a lot more interesting to me, however, is the nature of the swings he’s putting on these balls.

    At a high level, I can tell you that Alex Bregman’s 95 MPH average exit velocity, 20% barrel rate (3 total barrels), and 66.7% hard-hit rate are all excellent, near-elite level numbers. But even though those stats are “peripheral” or “advanced” analytics relative to a player’s results/slash line, it’s probably not worth reading into those too much, this early.

    For that, we have to go one level deeper, and that means looking at the swings themselves. If you head over to the Statcast swing data available on FanGraphs, you’ll find Alex Bregman’s name atop some really important leaderboards. And when you take a second to really internalize what these things mean, you’ll probably understand why the Cubs wanted him so badly.

    Although Alex Bregman’s overall swing speed is just a touch below average (swing speed isn’t everything, even if, all things equal you’d prefer it to be higher), his angle of attack and path to the ball (and the contact he makes when he does connect) is very good so far this season, which is especially encouraging because it’s part of what has always made him succesful.

    To put everything that follows simply: The swing speed and swing length Alex Bregman takes to the ball, while good for making contact, are not typically conducive to lots of power. But because he swings just fast enough and has such an ideal attack angle, he’s able to square up the ball perfectly and record “blasts” at a much higher rate than his peers.

    Let’s check out some numbers.

    © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Alex Bregman’s Elite Swing Data

    Alex Bregman’s Swing length:

    2026: 7.0 ft (39th in MLB) Career: 7.0 ft League Avg: 7.3 ft

    You can read all about what goes into swing length here, but the primary highlight here is that a shorter path to the ball is less likely to result in a whiff. Predictably, Luis Arraez is annually the shortest swing in baseball.

    The rub, however, is that a shorter swing path is also less likely to result in powerful contact, unless you hit it perfectly. But Alex Bregman has (so far) broken the mold in that respect.

    Alex Bregman’s Squared Up Contact%

    2026: 68.8% (1st in MLB) Career: 41.0% League Avg. 31.5%

    Every swing has a maximum exit velocity based on the swing speed and the speed of the pitch when the ball makes contact. So the percentage above is basically illustrating how much of the obtainable exit velocity a player actually captured on the balls he put in play. As you can see, Bregman has always been solidly above average in that respect for his career, but has so far been on another planet this season. Once again, I wouldn’t read too much into that in terms of expecting him to stay there, but it’s a good early sign that the things that have always made him successful are clicking (to the extreme) so far this season.

    Another similar metric is Blast Contact Rate. In baseball, a blast is when a batter “squares up” a ball but does so with a measurably high bat speed. In other words, it’s one thing to have a short bat path, a fast swing, and to square it up, but doing it all at once results in the best overall production on average. And once again …

    Alex Bregman’s Blast Contact%

    2026: 31.3% (13th in MLB) Career: 14% League Avg.: 13.3%

    Same as the others: Bregman is usually slightly better than average in this department, but has been elite this season in the super tiny sample.

    And finally, there’s one more characteristic to consider: the ideal attack angle. Statcast tracks the percentage of competitive swings in the ideal attack angle range (5-20 degrees) and represents it as a percentage. I think you already know where this is headed…

    Alex Bregman’s Ideal Attack Angle%

    2026: 83.3% (t-1st in MLB) Career: 67.7% League Avg.: 50.5%

    I know, I know, it’s crazy early to be looking at stats like this. But this is slightly more telling than results, because it has to do with what the batter is doing totally in isolation, excluding the impact of chance on balls in play.

    But even more to the point, I didn’t quite know how impressive Alex Bregman was in all of these next-level swing metrics before this season. I suppose some of that was intuitive based on the fact that he never really strikes out, and that he has always been able to hit for power without sacrificing contact, but it’s good to see that holding strong in the first year of his $175M deal.

    I have a feeling these are (some of) the characteristics the Cubs front office loved about Bregman before signing him this winter. They clearly show what kind of hitter he is, and hopefully, these positive early results are a good sign of things to come.

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