The greatest day of the year is closing in, and I couldn’t think of a better way to celebrate Opening Day (and my first post for Bleacher Nation) than with one of my favorite pieces of content each year: It’s bold predictions time!
I’m excited to share some of my Cubs thoughts and stories with you throughout the season, and I wanted to start strong. To be clear, I am not saying all of these bold predictions will come to pass. Or even that any will come true.
Instead, I share them only as a fun way to preview the 2026 Cubs season and underscore some of the areas of the team I feel strongly about.
So let’s get started with some honorable mentions/bonus predictions for the 2026 Cubs, before working backwards from 5 –> 1.
Bonus Predictions for the 2026 Cubs
—Michael Busch wins the NL Gold Glove at first base.
We could even go a step further and say Busch earns some down-ballot NL MVP votes.
The Cubs believe Busch can win a Gold Glove someday, and he has shown well at first base — a position he has been playing full-time for only two years.
Busch finished sixth among MLB first basemen last year with 2 Defensive Runs Saved and was fourth in the NL behind only Atlanta’s Matt Olson (17), Cincinnati’s Spencer Steer (8), and San Diego’s Luis Arráez (3).
Arráez is now playing second base in San Francisco, while Steer is headed for more of a utility role. Busch overcoming Olson is a tall task, but we don’t call them “very mild and easily achievable predictions,” now do we?
If Busch plays more against left-handed pitchers (which is the plan right now) and spends the entire year in the leadoff spot (at least against righties), he could continue to build the counting stats and show the entire league — and MVP or Gold Glove voters — how valuable he is to the Cubs.
—Matt Shaw approaches 450 plate appearances.
To be clear, that would be more than he had in his rookie season (437 PAs).
Right now, it’s hard to see a path to serious playing time for Shaw. The Cubs’ infield is set with veteran Alex Bregman now manning the hot corner alongside Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Busch.
But injuries will impact this lineup — something we’re already seeing with Seiya Suzuki. It remains to be seen if Shaw will play at all in right field in Suzuki’s absence (both Michael Conforto and Dylan Carlson look like they could fill the role in the short-term), but that is an option.
Bregman missed 48 games last year due to injury and has played more than 150 contests just twice over the last five full seasons. He’ll turn 32 on March 30. Swanson is also 32, and the Cubs will want to keep both veterans healthy since they have eyes on a long postseason run.
Plus, Shaw can see some at-bats at the DH spot against lefties and maybe ends up getting some time at first base, too.
A total like 450 PAs may seem too lofty, but the point is: I can see a world where Shaw plays more than anybody is expecting right now.
© Allan Henry-Imagn Images5. Daniel Palencia makes the All-Star Game.
I’m a big believer in World Baseball Classic success carrying over to the MLB regular season. I think it’s just a confidence thing — when a player performs well on the big stage in a playoff-like environment so close to the start of the regular season, it’s bound to carry over.
We saw Vinnie Pasquantino, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, and even Pete Crow-Armstrong show out in the WBC. But how can anybody leave the tournament with more confidence than Palencia?
He was the clear-cut closer for a strong Venezuela team that surprised the world and won it all. Palencia’s stuff looked absolutely nasty, and he did not allow a hit or a run in 5 WBC innings, racking up 3 saves and 9 strikeouts.
Frame it ???#WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/opJoq0D57Y
— MLB (@MLB) March 18, 2026He has the stuff. He has the closing job. He has the world’s attention. Now, Palencia just needs a strong first half to make his first trip to the Midsummer Classic.
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong tallies an 8-WAR season.
Baseball Reference or FanGraphs — regardless of your favorite go-to source for WAR, you can see a number that starts with an “8” next to PCA’s 2026 season.
For reference, only three position players sported a WAR of 8 or higher on FanGraphs last season — Aaron Judge (10.1), Cal Raleigh (9.1), and Bobby Witt Jr. (8.0).
Crow-Armstrong posted 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR in 2025, and that was a season in which he had a .287 on-base percentage. Imagine if he saw a relatively modest improvement in that category and only reached the league-average mark (.315). That would go a long way toward boosting his WAR.
Increasing his OBP is the simplest — and most likely — path toward an elite 8+ WAR season, but Crow-Armstrong can get there in other ways, too. Much has been made of his second-half struggles (.634 OPS, 6 HR, 8 SB) and issues with lefties (.188 AVG, .594 OPS), but I don’t think it’s talked about enough that 2025 marked his first full season in the majors.
He just turned 24 on Wednesday and has a brand-new contract extension that keeps him in Chicago through 2032. This is a player that still has some growing and learning to do — but can now play with the security that comes with a long-term deal.
Crow-Armstrong’s defense and baserunning give him an extremely high floor. If he can continue his progression offensively and find more consistency in that part of his game, the sky is the limit on what he can achieve.
© Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images3. Nico Hoerner will hit 15 homers this season.
Wait, what?
Yes, Hoerner will not only set a career high in homers, but he’ll blow by his previous mark of 10 set in 2022. And he will more than double his 2024 and 2025 longball output (7).
Why?
Well, I’ll admit, this one is not very “scientific.” Hoerner and the Cubs have hoped he would hit for more power for years — without sacrificing what he does well (hit for a high average with low strikeouts, use the whole field, etc.).
What if this is the year that comes to fruition? He hit 7 homers each of the last two years while dealing with a forearm injury (2024) and recovering from surgery on said injury (2025).
Hoerner crushed two homers in 43 Cactus League plate appearances. If you extrapolate that out to 650 PAs, that’s 30 homers.
Straight to the lawn from Nico. pic.twitter.com/9ghO8R6Ac1
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) March 15, 2026OK, that’s not how spring stats work. But Hoerner has always been relatively streaky with his longballs, so if he gets off to a good start, I think 15 could be within his reach.
2. Cade Horton finishes third in NL Cy Young voting … behind Paul Skenes and Eury Pérez.
This might not seem all that bold to this audience, as Cubs fans are well aware of what Horton is capable of after his incredible second half last season (8-1, 1.03 ERA, 0.78 WHIP).
But I feel like Horton is still being slept on/doubted at a national level, and I believe strongly that will change in 2026.
And it’s because of that second half, though it’s not just about the numbers. It’s about how Horton found success. On a pitch count of roughly 75 per outing as the Cubs tried to limit his workload, Horton mowed down opposing lineups, pitching to contact and attacking the zone.
He also has the stuff to miss bats (11.3 K/9 in the minors), but his main goal was to pitch deep into games with his 75-80 pitch allotment.
That dynamism is why I’m so high on Horton. He can find success pitching like Kyle Hendricks. Or he can find success pitching like prime Kerry Wood.
The only question about Horton in 2026 related to the CY race is workload. Will he pitch enough innings to garner enough votes? I think the same concerns exist for Pérez, though — like Horton — the talent is undeniable. With Skenes, no such concerns exist, so just pencil him in for a second straight NL CY right now.
© Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images1. We’ve already seen how the NLCS will end.
March 14 provided a snapshot of how the 2026 National League Championship Series will finish: With Daniel Palencia inducing a popout from Shohei Ohtani.
DOWN GO THE CHAMPS!Ohtani flies out to end the game and Venezuela is on to the WBC Semifinals! ?? pic.twitter.com/rzS1rwoq0o
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 15, 2026That’s right: I’m predicting a Cubs-Dodgers NLCS … that will end with the Cubs punching their ticket to the 2026 World Series (where they will meet up with the Mariners, if anybody’s interested in another bold prediction).
Now, this one has a lot going on. For starters, I’m not so sure Palencia would be closing in the playoffs — even if he’s pitching the ninth in the regular season. We already saw how Craig Counsell and the Cubs utilized him as a fireman in any inning during the 2025 playoffs.
There are also a lot of variables in play — including Ohtani being at the plate for the potential final out. And of course, the Cubs beating the super team that is the Los Angeles Dodgers in a best-of-seven series.
But hey, it could happen! And why not end on a fun one?
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