The race for Europe is more exciting than ever, in part because an unlikely set of circumstances could mean as many as 11 English teams playing in European competition in 2026-27.
The title race might be as good as over already, but the Premier League is arguably as competitive and exciting a place as it has ever been.
Nowhere more so is that the case than in the race for Europe, where as many as 13 teams are conceivably in with a chance of success.
A series of factors have combined to make this race for Europe so open.
Firstly, both the Champions League and Europa League are bigger than in previous years. Then, there is a third European competition in the Conference League, which has only been around for a few years. Then, the strength of the Premier League means an English winner of any competition will add to the number of teams competing in Europe next season. And finally, the middle of the Premier League is incredibly bunched – more so than almost ever before.
Just seven points separate Liverpool in fifth place and Bournemouth in 13th. It’s the smallest gap between fifth and 13th on this date in any of the last 33 seasons, since the first season of the Premier League in 1992-93.
Meanwhile, just four points separate seventh and 13th, which is also the second-lowest gap between those positions in Premier League history at this stage in a season.
Ahead of 2025-26, nine English teams qualified for Europe: six went into the Champions League for the first time ever, while two more went into the Europa League, and one into the Conference League.
There’s a decent chance there’ll be as many this time around – and there’s also a possibility there’ll be even more – but there are a lot of ‘ifs’ in the calculations before anything is confirmed.
So, what are the possibilities?
How Many Premier League Teams Will Be in Europe Next Season?
Champions League
The expanded Champions League format allows for two extra spots to be given out to the leagues whose teams perform best in Europe in the previous season, based on UEFA’s very complicated points system.
As things stand this season, the Premier League is all but certain to – as it did last term – earn one of those two spots, with five of its nine European participants still active in their respective competitions.
According to the BBC, if any of those five teams get just one draw from the 10 games over their upcoming two-legged quarter-finals, a fifth Champions League spot for England will be confirmed. That happened in 100% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations of the rest of the season.
There is also the possibility of two more Champions League spots for English clubs, but that eventuality would simultaneously require excellent results in Europe and poor form domestically from Liverpool and Aston Villa. They would need to win their respective European competition (Liverpool the Champions League, or Villa the Europa League), and also finish outside the Premier League’s top five (assuming the top five qualify for the Champions League).
If they do that, then they will still earn a spot in the Champions League, and they would not take their spots in the other European competitions that their league positions would usually have earned them. If they both do so, it would mean seven English teams in the Champions League next season. Of course, this also applies if Nottingham Forest win the Europa League.
Note: if any club wins a European competition but also finishes high up enough in the table to qualify for Europe, their qualification through their league position is not transferred to another team e.g. if Arsenal win the Champions League, they won’t earn the team who finishes sixth in the Premier League a spot in next season’s competition.
Europa League
There are (at least) two spots available to English teams. Assuming (again) that the top five Premier League sides qualify for the Champions League, the teams finishing sixth and the winners of the FA Cup will qualify for the Europa League.
However, if any one of Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea or Liverpool win the FA Cup – which is looking very likely at this stage, simply because of the calibre of the other remaining teams – and finishes in a league position that would be enough to qualify for either the Champions or Europa League (so, the top six), their UEL spot will go to the next-highest ranked team in the Premier League who haven’t already otherwise qualified for Europe.
If, alongside the above, neither Liverpool or Villa win a European competition while finishing outside the top five, this Europa League spot would go to the seventh-placed team in the Premier League. If exactly one of Liverpool or Villa is victorious in Europe while also finishing outside the top five, the team that finishes eighth in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League.
If both of them win their European competition and finish outside the top five, the teams who finish in eighth and ninth will qualify for the Europa League. According to the Opta supercomputer, there is just a 0.07% chance of that happening, but it’s a chance nonetheless.
Meanwhile, if Crystal Palace win the Conference League while finishing outside the Premier League’s top six, they will enter the Europa League at the league phase next season.
Conference League
Manchester City earned England’s Conference League spot by winning the EFL Cup, but they will finish inside the top six of the league and so their position passes down the league to the highest-placed team who haven’t already qualified for Europe.
Depending on who wins the FA Cup and how many extra spots are earned in the Champions League by Liverpool or Villa, the team that ends the Premier League season in position eighth, ninth, or 10th could qualify for the Conference League.
So, There Could be 11 English Teams in Europe Next Season?
In short: yes.
That would require all of Liverpool, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace winning their respective European competitions while also finishing outside the top five – for Liverpool and Villa – or the top six – for Palace. That would leave the 11-club split as follows: seven for the Champions League, three for the Europa League and one for the Conference League.
The Opta supercomputer reckons the chance of all of those things happening concurrently is 0.02%. In other words, in 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, 11 Premier League teams qualified for Europe just twice.
Put more simply: it’s extremely unlikely.
So, How Many Will There Be?
Liverpool are unlikely to win the Champions League, and they are also more likely to finish in the top five than outside it. Aston Villa are favourites to win the Europa League but are even less likely to finish outside the top five than Liverpool. Palace are the favourites to win the Conference League, but it’s still more likely that they don’t than they do.
With all that in mind, it is more probable that no extra places are earned because English teams won continental competitions while finishing outside the qualifying positions in the Premier League.
However, it is likely that five English teams will qualify for the Champions League and a Europa League spot will go to the team finishing in seventh because a top-six team wins the FA Cup.
That would mean the teams finishing in the top eight in the Premier League this season qualify for Europe. Here are the percentage chances of each team finishing in each position, according to the most recent batch of 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season by the Opta supercomputer.
Brighton are the most likely team outside of the current top seven to sneak into eighth position, doing so in 17.2% of those simulations, while Brentford are looking good value to finish in seventh.
Everton (seventh in 16.8% of simulations and eighth in 16.6%) have a good chance of getting into Europe, while Fulham, Newcastle, Sunderland, and even Bournemouth aren’t out of the race. Crystal Palace’s best hopes of a return to Europe lie in winning the Conference League, but they also have a chance of a top-eight finish in the Premier League, too.
All of those teams should also head into the remainder of the season hoping that Liverpool and Aston Villa secure European glory while falling away in the league. If both do so and Palace also win the Conference League, there will be more Premier League teams competing in Europe in 2026-27 than those who are not.
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How 11 Premier League Teams Could Qualify For Europe Next Season Opta Analyst.
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