2026 M. NCAA Previews: Ilya Kharun The New Favorite With Luca Urlando Out In 200 Butterfly ...Middle East

By Sophie Kaufman on SwimSwam

2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Swimming and Diving Championships

Men’s 200 Butterfly

Let’s get the elephant on the pool deck out of the way first – this event got a major shakeup this week when NCAA record holder and defending champion Luca Urlando pulled out of the 2026 NCAA Championships. Urlando announced his withdrawal on Instagram, citing a “minor injury” as the reason he will not be suiting up in Atlanta this weekend.

Urlando was the clear favorite in this event. He spent the past 12 months pushing this event to new heights, breaking Jack Conger’s long-standing mark, then becoming the first man to break 1:37 seconds. He owns the five fastest times in history and had already reset the NCAA record once this season, clipping two-hundredths off his NCAA title-winning time at the Georgia Fall Invite with a 1:36.41.

The New Favorite

Urlando’s absence is a huge blow to the event, though it has not changed the way the event is structured that much. He was the big favorite coming in, but there was also an obvious runner-up candidate as well, sitting ahead of a messy fight for the ‘A’ final. Now, that runner-up candidate, Ilya Kharun, has become the man a step ahead of the rest in the hunt for the NCAA title.

At least in the short-course yards pool, Kharun has been overshadowed by Urlando’s achievements in this event. But the Sun Devil has been constantly improving in this event. This season, he lowered his lifetime best to 1:37.56 during the CSCAA Dual Meet Challenge. That effort was the seventh-fastest performance in history and made him the third-fastest performer behind Urlando and Conger.

In Kharun’s freshman year, he did not swim his fastest time of the season at NCAAs, though he earned his first individual national title. He righted that as a sophomore, posting a season-best for third. This year, he’ll look to marry those things and go his fastest time of the season to claim his second 200 butterfly NCAA title in three years.

The New Wave

Thomas Heilman (photo: Jack Spitser)

After Kharun, the rest of the men’s 200 butterfly field is chaotic. There’s major opportunity in the event this year; though four of the 2025 ‘A’ finalists return, only Kharun is seeded in the top eight. Many swimmers have also taken major steps forward this year. 11 men are seeded sub-1:40 seconds and eight of those swimmers broke that barrier for the first time this season. The three who had already been under that mark are Kharun, Thomas Heilman, and Krzysztof Chmielewski.

The top of the 200 butterfly psych sheet is filled with new threats. In some ways, that does include Heilman. This will be his first NCAA Championships, after all. But the Virginia freshman does feel like a more known quantity than many of the men surrounding him on the psych sheet. He has had success at the national level, qualifying for senior international teams in long-course. He also spent his club career breaking historic National Age Group records. He’s seeded at 1:39.09, but has been as fast as 1:38.95, making him one of the only men in this field who’s been faster than 1:39. The question is whether he will be able to be at that best, which he swam in December 2024, or better in Atlanta this week.

2025 ‘B’ Finalists Push Pace

Kharun is the only 2025 ‘A’ finalist seeded to score. Instead, last year’s ‘B’ final has pushed to the front of the field; there are five ‘B’ finalists back in this event this year: Jacob Johnson, Logan Robinson, Haakon Naughton, Gibson Holmes, and Cooper Lucas.

Robinson is the highest-seeded of this crew and leads the contingent of men who broke 1:40 for the first time this season. He accomplished that during his title-winning swim at last month’s ACC Championships in a 1:38.78. He bypassed the 1:39 second range entirely, improving from the 1:40.23 he swam for 11th last year at his first NCAA Championships. Robinson has improved quickly in this event, he came into the 2024-25 season with a 1:44.84 PB.

Naughton finished just behind Robinson in the ‘B’ final last year, adding .13 seconds from prelims to touch in 1:40.37 for 12th. The Wildcats have had a strong season as a team; they qualified all five relays with ‘A’ cuts and the scored, pre-withdrawal psych sheets project a top 25 after they took 29th place last year. Naughton will play a key role in Arizona’s success, and maintaining his projected spot in the ‘A’ final is key to that. He is the #6 seed after swimming a 1:39.22 lifetime best at the Big 12 Championships, improving from 1:40.24.

Logan Robinson (photo: Jack Spitser)

Stanford’s Holmes is the third 2025 ‘B’ finalist seeded to make the top 8. The junior finished 6th at the ACC Championships (1:40.81) but became another addition to the freshly sub-1:40 crew at the SMU Last Chance Invite. There, Holmes unleashed a 1:39.45 lifetime best, hacking over a second off his previous best (the 1:40.67 he swam for 14th last year). Holmes showed last year at his first NCAA Championships that he could drop from conference to NCAAs; this year, he’ll need to try to maintain his peak from the early-March Last Chance meet.

Minnesota’s Johnson and Texas’ Lucas are a bit further down the psych sheet, but can’t be forgotten about. Johnson is a 20 0butterfly specialist who began rewriting Minnesota’s record book when he arrived in the Twin Cities last season. He’s had a quieter season this year, but that’s a side effect of not taking down your own record in multiple dual meets. Johnson lowered the program record to 1:39.96 last season with his 10th place NCAA finish. He’s lurking near that time with a 1:40.20 season-best from Big 12s.

Lucas, meanwhile, is sitting just on the outside of scoring range in the psych sheets as the #17 seed. He popped a lifetime best 1:40.40 at the Texas Hall of Fame Invite and is part of a slew of swimmers seeded with a 1:40-mid time, a group that also includes teammate Kyle Peck (1:40.42).

From Zero Points To Top Eight?

There are five men returning from the 2025 NCAA ‘B’ final, three of whom are currently seeded to score. Perhaps more impressively, there are five men seeded to score who missed out on finals last year, and three of them are seeded to earn a spot in the final.

Michigan’s Tyler Ray leads this quintet thanks to a 1:38.82 at Big Tens, which makes him the #3 seed. Ray was exceptional at Big Tenss—his best event was the 100 butterfly, but his momentum carried over to the 200 butterfly as well. His swim took almost eight-tenths off his former best (1:39.60) from midseason, which was his first time breaking 1:40. Ray came into the season with a 1:40.44 lifetime best from the 2024 NCAA Championships and has chopped 1.62 seconds from that mark already this year.

Mitchell Schott (credit: Ryan Samson/Ivy League)

Ray had a misfire in this event last year; after coming in seeded at 1:40.55, he swam 1:41.49 in prelims and missed the top 16. Princeton’s Mitchell Schott saw a similar add, swimming 1:41.64 after coming into the meet with a 1:40.42. Last season was Schott’s breakout year, though, and the new knowledge of his capabilities will presumably mean that NCAAs is his main goal. Still, he’s continued to see improvements; his 1:39.05 from the Ivy League Championships improved his standing as the fastest mid-major swimmer in event history.

Based on their seed times, Ray and Schott look like the two most likely swimmers to make a jump from outside scoring range into the top 8 this year—as long as they can avoid another prelims fumble. Seb Lunak and Drew Hitchcock are aiming to do the same, while Raekwon Noel is hoping to take it one step further. Noel did not compete at NCAAs last year but is projected to be in the 200 fly top 8 this year after a 1:39.26 lifetime best effort at Big 10s. It was a huge drop for Noel from his former best of 1:41.14, which he swam at a January dual meet. The question for Noel, like with Holmes, will be whether he will be able to maintain that drop into NCAAs.

Without Urlando in the picture, Hitchcock is Georgia’s best hope for points in this event. As a freshman, he narrowly missed a second swim, finishing 18th after adding .13 seconds from seed. He and Lunak both cleared 1:40 for the first time this season and are separated by .01; Lunak has the edge with his 1:39.75 lifetime best from ACCs. Lunak tied for 20th last season in 1:41.29, adding from a 1:40.12.

Even with all the schedule changes, the 200 butterfly is still on the last day of the meet. Swimmers will have misfires—they do in every event. The margin for error is slimmer if someone is hoping for a second swim, especially in an event like this that is wide open behind the favorite. Many of the returning ‘A’ finalists haven’t been as fast as last year’s ‘B’ finalists or those who missed scoring entirely. So, if you’re filling out your top eight, the question will be how heavily to weigh the returning ‘A’ finalists’ experience against the lessons this new wave learned last year.

Returning ‘A’ Finalists

Krzysztof Chmielewski (photo: Jack Spitser)

Besides Kharun, K. Chmielewski, Martin Espernberger, and Colin Geer are looking to repeat as finalists this season. Chmielewski is the only one of these four besides Kharun that’s broken 1:40 this season. He’s seeded with a 1:39.81, which is within a second of his lifetime best 1:39.09 from the 2025 NCAA Championships, where he placed 6th.

Geer is seeded only two spots behind Chmielewski, ranking 13th with his season-best 1:40.09. This event is open enough that not having broken 1:40 this season is far from a dealbreaker. But the pressure is on with the absence of ‘B’ finals, and with 11 men already under that mark, it seems the 1:40 mark is going to be one of the lowest bars to clear in order to score. Geer has been under that time before, as has Tennessee’s Espernberger. Espernberger has the faster lifetime best of the two with his 1:39.34 from the 2024 Tennessee Invite, though Geer’s 1:39.58 from 2025 Big Tens is not far off the Volunteer’s pace.

Espernberger finished 5th in 2025, while Geer took 8th.

SwimSwam Picks

Dark Horse: Aiden Hayes, NC State — The 2023 NCAA champion in this event isn’t your typical dark horse, but he does still fit the criteria. Hayes won his title three years ago with a lifetime best 1:38.79, edging out Brendan Burns in a thriller. Hayes has had his ups and downs since then, battling back from an injury that forced him to miss the entire 2024-25 season. He’s been mostly focused on sprints this season, which has paid off–he swam a lifetime best in the 100 butterfly at ACCs last month. He skipped the 200 butterfly at those championships, which is why he’s way down the psych sheet as the #32 seed with a 1:43.14 season best. That’s also why he’s our dark horse for this race: what he can throw down this season in a tapered 200 butterfly is still a big question mark. But if he’s on, he’s certainly an ‘A’ finalist and a top-three threat, though it may be a stretch for him to challenge Kharun. 

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