Two writers over at MLB.com, Mike Petriello and Will Leitch, had a little fun drafting the 2026 MLB World Series winner favorites, from 1 to 30. It’s one of those things that’s an enjoyable read as we desperately await the real games to begin.
That said, I do also find the thought and analysis that goes into the picks interest, particularly when Petriello picks the Chicago Cubs all the way up at number three and says this:
“Petriello: I am not blind to the fact that the Brewers are the three-time NL Central champions, and that the Cubs haven’t actually won their division in a full season since way back in 2017. And yet: I picked Chicago here, not Milwaukee. It wouldn’t be a season preview if someone wasn’t out here failing to fully respect Milwaukee, right? Why should this year be any different?
Part of this is that winning the division isn’t a requirement for winning the World Series, so even if the Cubs finish second again, they could still get the ring, but also I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen of Shota Imanaga this spring, and I have hope they can unlock Edward Cabrera a bit. The lackluster rotation has had me down on this team the last few seasons – and I regret to say that I do not share everyone’s optimism about Cade Horton – but it’s at least deeper. The defense is great. They should hit.
I have to admit, though: It’s very uncomfortable picking this team this high. You could probably order teams 3-13 here in any way you like. I sure hope Seiya Suzuki is healthy, though …. “
Even I as a Cubs fan probably wouldn’t be drafting the Cubs behind only the Dodgers and Mariners as World Series favorites going into 2026, but I certainly agree that they’re in that very large tier of legitimate contenders behind the Dodgers.
I also agree that the rotation is probably more of a concern for the Cubs than their lineup or their defense, even as I can’t help but think about how the rotation COULD be quite a bit better this year than last year (Edward Cabrera arrives, Cade Horton gets a full year, Shota Imanaga bounces back, Justin Steele returns, even better depth, etc.). Consider that the Cubs’ rotation had the 8th best ERA in baseball last year, which is obviously owned in no small part to the superlative defense (the rotation’s FIP was 18th), but when you’re talking about the overall projection for a team, you can’t actually separate the pitching from the defense! Because the whole point is to talk about anticipated results.
That is to say, even if the rotation is justifiably the concerning part of this roster, then that’s quite a compliment to the roster, eh? Because this rotation, to me, has a very strong chance to repeat as a top-8/top-12-ish group. If that happens, this is a Cubs group that should win 92+ games again if they have decent health, and any team that wins 92+ games should be well set up to make a postseason run.
(And, with apologies to Mr. Petriello, I think he falls into that group of national punditry that looks at Cade Horton’s ERA versus his peripherals, and presumes he was just a lucky contact-manager last year … without actually looking more deeply into the evolution of his pitch mix and execution as the year went on, and noting how dramatically his peripherals improved through the year … as you would expect/hope for a very good and promising rookie. That doesn’t mean Horton will repeat last year’s sub-3 ERA, mind you, because there was some good fortune in it. But if the peripherals improve, you’re talking about a guy with a true-talent 3-ish ERA anyway, and that’s the kind of starter who, ironically, would be getting lots of love regardless of the results.)
The Brewers, in case you were curious, lasted until pick 13, which (1) sounds about right for how the Brewers are viewed every single year, and (2) more or less guarantees that they will once again win 90+ games. Of course, the counter there is that, despite always being better than expected and making the playoffs, the Brewers haven’t actually made it to the World Series during this run.
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