SCOTTSDALE — The National League West has not sent more than two teams to the postseason since the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies put on an epic show in the 2017 Wild Card Game.
Even with expanded playoffs increasing the number of postseason spots to six per league since 2022, the NL West has consistently sent two clubs to October: the Los Angeles Dodgers and someone else.
The Dodgers are the favorites to accomplish the rare three-peat, which has only been done twice in MLB history, both by the New York Yankees.
The Rockies, meanwhile, are expected to be in the doldrums once again, although the organization has made substantive changes with new president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta and general manager Josh Byrnes.
That leaves a middle class of three teams that might be pretty good but have plenty of flaws entering the season: Arizona, the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants. If history repeats itself — and given depth of the National League — it is unlikely that two of these teams make the postseason, ramping up the competition level between them.
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The Padres earned a playoff spot in each of the previous two years, while the D-backs last reached October in 2023 and the Giants in 2021.
The D-backs, Padres and Giants are similar in the sense that they each have star players but also roster depth questions that add a level of variance to their potential outcomes.
The Padres and Giants are also rolling out first-time MLB managers, while the Diamondbacks are sticking with continuity in skipper Torey Lovullo for a 10th season.
FanGraphs projects the Giants to win 82 games, the D-backs 81 and the Padres 79. Baseball Prospectus has the Padres and Giants tied with 81.4 wins and the D-backs trailing at 78.5. FanGraphs gives the D-backs a 33.8% chance to make the playoffs.
Neither outlet has more than one NL West team in the postseason field, signaling that someone in this trio will have to create some separation.
Let’s dive into the strengths and weaknesses of these clubs to figure out who has the best chance to crack the postseason bracket in a critical year for each party involved.
San Diego Padres (90-72 in 2025)
(AP Photo/Erin Hooley)
Notable additions: INF Sung-Mun Song, OF Miguel Andujar, RHP German Marquez, RHP Griffin Canning, OF Nick Castellanos, 1B Ty France, RHP Walker Buehler
Notable losses: RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Robert Suarez, 1B Ryan O’Hearn, 2B Luis Arraez
The Padres were a mediocre offense last season, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. finishing eighth for NL MVP and Manny Machado making another All-Star Game. They ranked 18th in runs, 28th in home runs and 16th in OPS.
Not much has changed in the lineup. The most notable addition was Miguel Andujar to supply power while three-time batting champion Luis Arraez is now playing for the Giants.
San Diego thrived in run prevention, finishing third in team ERA, first in bullpen ERA and first in save percentage.
That bullpen should remain the strength of the team with Mason Miller — and his 104 mph heater — stepping into the closer role after a dominant finish to his 2025 campaign. San Diego lost closer Robert Suarez to Atlanta, but the back end of the bullpen remains deep with Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada all pitching to an All-Star level last year.
The rotation is not on the same solid ground with Dylan Cease having left in free agency and Yu Darvish out for the year. The Padres re-signed 2024 breakout Michael King and will get All-Star Joe Musgrove back from Tommy John surgery — he is being slow-played to start the year. They make up a talented top three with Nick Pivetta.
But there is a lot riding on that trio with a group of fliers and breakout hopefuls vying for rotation spots behind it.
The Padres entered the offseason in an unsure spot as a franchise. The Seidler family announced it would be exploring a sale of the team, and manager Mike Shildt unexpectedly retired after San Diego’s elimination in the Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs.
Former Padres reliever Craig Stammen was picked to manage the club after one year in an executive role, a surprising move within the industry given his lack of experience and little smoke surrounding the hire. General manager A.J. Preller signed an extension to maintain stability in the front office with uncertainty elsewhere.
Player to watch: Jackson Merrill
Merrill had an uneven sophomore season after he challenged Paul Skenes for NL Rookie of the Year in 2024. His hot start was cut off by a hamstring injury, and his numbers over the next 81 games played were substandard (.687 OPS). Merrill heated up in September with seven home runs and .946 OPS as the Padres applied pressure on the Dodgers for the division title, and he was their best hitter in the postseason.
The 22-year-old “bouncing back” to an All-Star level would do wonders for a relatively top-heavy lineup next to Tatis and Machado.
San Francisco Giants (81-81)
(AP Photo/Benjamin Fanjoy, File)
Notable additions: RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP Adrian Houser, OF Harrison Bader, 2B Luis Arraez, LHP Sam Hentges
Notable subtractions: RHP Justin Verlander, 1B Wilmer Flores, 1B Dominic Smith
The Giants have won between 79-81 games in four straight seasons, as mediocre a stretch as it gets after they won 107 games in 2021.
The club has made significant changes over the past couple years, with Buster Posey starting his second season as president of baseball operations, third baseman Matt Chapman and outfielder Jung-Hoo Lee entering Year 3 with the club, shortstop Willy Adames in Year 2 and first baseman Rafael Devers having come over in a trade last season.
Adames was way better in the second half after a slow start and became the first Giants batter to hit 30 home runs since Barry Bonds in 2004. Devers should see his share of splash hits with an average of 32 home runs per year over the last four seasons. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge is projected to take on the DH role, giving the lineup a young, 6-foot-7 masher who struck out a lot in his cup of coffee last year.
Like the Padres, the Giants were better at preventing runs than scoring in 2025, ranking 17th in runs and bottom 10 in OPS, hard-hit rate and stolen bases.
Adding Harrison Bader brought a dynamic defender in center field and moved Lee — the worst defender in MLB last year with -18 defensive runs saved — over to right field, and catcher Patrick Bailey is the best in the business behind the plate.
The pitching, however, has a lot more questions than last year when it ranked 10th in ERA, especially in the bullpen.
All-Star Randy Rodriguez is out for the year after Tommy John surgery, while the Giants sold several back-end relievers at the deadline. If closer Ryan Walker does not find his 2024 form after a 4.11 ERA last year, this team could run into issues finishing games.
Logan Webb is a stud atop the rotation. The two-time All-Star has thrown more innings than anyone else in MLB over the past four years by a mile with 820 frames. The next highest mark is Framber Valdez at 767.2 innings.
Behind him, the Giants filled the rotation with a couple one-year deals for veterans Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser, while Robbie Ray figures to be the No. 2 starter at 34 years old after a tough second half.
Even with the uncertainties on the mound, arguably the biggest question for the Giants is whether their bold maneuver to hire manager Tony Vitello from the college ranks at Tennessee pans out.
There have been managers who previously coached in college like Pat Murphy, but he spent years in a major league dugout between Arizona State and the Brewers. Vitello going straight from college to managing a big league team is unprecedented.
Player to watch: Ryan Walker
Walker worked a 1.91 ERA in 2024 to take over the closer role from the since-traded Camilo Doval. Last year, Walker had an up-and-down campaign with dominant a July and August before a rough September pushed his ERA into the 4s for the year.
One pitcher won’t make-or-break a suspect bullpen, but having a closer do his job consistently takes a lot of stress off a baseball team — just ask the Diamondbacks — particularly one with a new manager.
Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82)
(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri, File)
Notable additions: RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Paul Sewald, RHP Michael Soroka, 3B Nolan Arenado, 1B Carlos Santana, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Kade Strowd, RHP Taylor Clarke
Notable subtractions: INF Blaze Alexander, LHP Jalen Beeks, OF Jake McCarthy
The Diamondbacks are an even 39-39 over the past three seasons against the Padres and Giants.
After an offseason filled with headlines of potential change, including Ketel Marte trade rumors and Zac Gallen on the free agent market, the Diamondbacks enter the 2026 season with a familiar bunch looking to get over the hump after a pair of near misses.
Marte is back as the consensus best second baseman in baseball, making up a killer top three in the lineup with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo and outfielder Corbin Carroll. Perdomo (4th), Carroll (7th) and Marte (22nd) were all on MVP ballots in 2025, and the D-backs finished sixth in scoring.
Behind the trio, Arizona expects to get Lourdes Gurriel Jr. back from a torn ACL as early as a month into the season, while youngsters Jordan Lawlar and Alek Thomas have a lot to prove. If they can take steps and get on base for the top of the order, Arizona could use its speed as a more pronounced weapon like in 2023 when the club finished second in stolen bases.
Former superstar Nolan Arenado catching another wind after his down season in St. Louis would help, as well.
Arizona assembled its rotation by bringing Merrill Kelly back and retaining Gallen, which was not expected to be possible. Ryne Nelson took another step forward as the club’s most effective starter for most of last year, while Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez will look for bounce-back seasons after producing ERAs over 5. Staff ace Corbin Burnes expects to be back in July from Tommy John surgery.
The D-backs ranked 19th in starter ERA last year at 4.29, although that statistic improved to 4.10 over the final two months, even after trading Kelly, as Gallen and Rodriguez found answers late. The club hopes a philosophy shift to focusing on pitcher strengths more than opposing weaknesses will hammer the right message.
The bullpen has gone through a makeover in the past eight months from trades and one-year signings. This team blew more saves (29) than anyone in the NL a year ago. The D-backs lead the NL in blown saves over the past five years and lead MLB in blown saves over the past decade.
The lineup and rotation have their faults, but perennially it is the bullpen that draws the most questions.
Player to watch: Jordan Lawlar
Lawlar has the speed-power combination potential to become a core member of this team and is having a standout spring training. He is working on a new position in center field, which has gone well so far.
After mostly poor results in irregular major league reps to this point, here is his opportunity to hold onto a daily role.
It was not long ago when he put up 20 home runs and 39 steals in the minor leagues in 2023, and that potential to flip the lineup for the top three would make the D-backs’ offense difficult to handle.
Catcher Gabriel Moreno is another strong option for a player to watch if he can remain healthy.
Who has the advantage?
Offense
D-backs: SS Geraldo Perdomo, 2B Ketel Marte, RF Corbin Carroll
Padres: RF Fernando Tatis Jr., CF Jackson Merrill, 3B Manny Machado
Giants: SS Willy Adames, 1B Rafael Devers, 3B Matt Chapman, Jung-Hoo Lee
Verdict: Padres, barely
It’s pretty close between the D-backs and Padres given their strong top of the lineup and questionable depth. The Padres have more established veteran role players behind the top three, but the D-backs have the potential growth of Carroll and Perdomo being in their mid-20s and Lawlar if he puts it all together.
San Diego has the higher floor, but the D-backs have the higher ceiling. The Giants are in the middle on both fronts.
Starting rotation
Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes (IL)
Padres: Michael King, Nick Pivetta, JP Sears, German Marquez, Griffin Canning, Joe Musgrove (IL)
Giants: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, Landen Roupp
Verdict: Diamondbacks?
Last year felt about as poor as this Diamondbacks’ rotation could have pitched collectively. The pitching has underachieved over the past two seasons.
At the same time, Gallen (3.32 ERA) and Rodriguez (4.09 ERA) continuing to throw like they had over the final two months, Kelly and Nelson staying consistent and Pfaadt finding more solid ground would set up a pretty workable starting unit, even before Burnes gets back.
Not everything is going to go right, of course, but getting a motivated Gallen back in the mix was a huge move to improve the potential of this group.
The other two teams don’t have a ringer that looms as large as Burnes while facing depth questions themselves, especially with Musgrove “most likely” starting the year on the IL in his build-up for San Diego.
Bullpen
Diamondbacks: Paul Sewald, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson
Padres: Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam
Giants: Ryan Walker, Jose Butto, Erik Miller
Verdict: Padres by the lot
This gap is more pronounced than the differences between these three lineups, rotations or defenses, as the bullpen is San Diego’s strength and the other two’s potential weaknesses.
How valuable is that for the Padres? Being able to shut down games after the sixth inning is a huge boost, and it takes some stress off a rocky rotation.
Miller allowed two earned runs over his final 34 innings last year with 58 strikeouts and has continued to be untouchable in the World Baseball Classic.
Ok, what about the Dodgers?
Notable additions: RHP Edwin Diaz, OF Kyle Tucker
Notable subtractions: LHP Clayton Kershaw, OF Michael Conforto, RHP Kirby Yates, LHP Anthony Banda
Are the Dodgers invinceable?
Well, the Padres nearly had them beat in the 2024 NLDS and the Toronto Blue Jays were a blown save and later a cleat away from dethroning them in Game 7 of the World Series, so teams have had their chances to take them down.
The Dodgers continued to push their laughably extravagant payroll by signing the top closer on the market in Diaz and the best hitter available in Tucker to extend their payroll (after taxes) to $412 million.
With Tucker joining Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Max Muncy the lineup is loaded with power, as Tucker adds another prime bat to a group that has some stars getting into their mid 30s (Betts, Freeman and Muncy).
The rotation is stacked with World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (when healthy), Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow, along with young Roki Sasaki sliding back into the starting unit.
And now Diaz spearheads a bullpen that struggled last year.
Baseball is not a sport that breeds unbeatable teams very often. There were no repeat World Series winners from 2000-24.
This Dodgers team is going to press that narrative, doing so before the collective bargaining agreement runs out at the end of the year and payroll discrepancy will be the main topic, no less.
At the end of the day, though, all it takes is a 3-2 record in an NLDS to stop a dynasty in its tracks, but catching the Dodgers in the division looks like an impossible task for three flawed clubs behind them.
Are the Rockies looking any more competitive?
Notable additions: OF Jake McCarthy, INF Willi Castro, RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Michael Lorenzen
Notable subtractions: RHP German Marquez, INF Thairo Estrada
The Rockies took a lot of short-term fliers to stabilize a roster that lost 119 games last year, one off from the National League record. They scored the second-fewest runs and worked a major league-worst 5.97 ERA, which is bad even by Coors Field standards.
Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, starting pitcher Chase Dollander and reliever Victor Vodnik are younger players to keep an eye on in terms of raising this team’s ceiling, along with Charlie Condon, a top prospect who could add a spark to the lineup at some point.
At the end of the day, this team has a ways to go before competing for a playoff spot, but with some of the veteran additions, there is a chance they can steal a few more games.
NL West betting odds
The Dodgers are -650 to win the NL West, way ahead of any other division favorite in the league on FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Padres have the highest win total over-under among the three Wild Card contenders at 83.5 wins. San Francisco is next at 80.5 wins, with the Diamondbacks trailing at 79.5 wins.
San Diego is tied with Milwaukee in sixth among National League teams with +110 odds to make the postseason.
A look to the schedule
The Diamondbacks went a month before facing an NL West team last year, but this time they will open the season with three games against the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.
Arizona’s next divisional matchup will be in Mexico City against the Padres on April 25-26. The D-backs will first see the Giants and Rockies for two series apiece in May.
As has been the case over the past two seasons, the Diamondbacks will end the 2026 campaign against the Padres, who have effectively eliminated Arizona both times. Arizona went 5-8 against San Diego last year, although the final two losses were after the D-backs were out of contention and started resting regulars.
If the Giants are hanging around, they will finish the year with six of their final nine games against the Dodgers.
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