The NCAA has kept discussions open about the possibility of expanding the NCAA Tournament field over the past two seasons. A change could happen as soon as next season, and it surely has to do with the opportunity to make more money.
The creme de la creme of power conference teams have been flexing lately in the final stages of March Madness.
But even the mid-tier teams in the power conferences are earning invites to the tournament field as it begins. What does that look like if it expanded to 76 teams from the present 68?
In an exercise by Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney, an Arizona State Sun Devils team that went 17-16, was 12th in the Big 12 standings and has already moved on from head coach Bobby Hurley would be the last team in the 2026 field.
Here are the teams Sweeney would have added this year if the tournament expanded:
Eight added at-large teams
Oklahoma Auburn San Diego State Indiana Oklahoma State Virginia Tech California Arizona StateTo expand to 76, SI assigned the eight additional at-large bids to the First Four Out as listed by the selection committee and then the next four highest-rated teams in the NCAA’s Wins Above Bubble metric as of Sunday morning. Those four were four middling high-majors: Oklahoma State (19–14, 6–12), Virginia Tech (19–13, 8–10), Cal (21–11, 9–9) and Arizona State (17–16, 7–11).
That means even with a 76-team field, strong mid-majors like Belmont, New Mexico and Yale would not have gotten in. That’s likely also true for Akron and South Florida had those teams lost in the MAC and American title games, though we don’t have the capacity to fully simulate WAB movement. Even McNeese State, which currently has a better WAB than Oklahoma and Indiana, may have fallen enough with a loss to Stephen F. Austin to not crack the field.
There is subjectivity there, of course. Does the committee lean toward that newer WAB metric or does it still heavily weigh the NET rankings?
According to the NET rankings, New Mexico, at 46th, was not among Sweeney’s tournament invitees. New Mexico ranked ahead of six of Sports Illustrated’s eight added teams, with 17-16 Auburn (38th) and 18-14 Indiana (41st) the exceptions.
Belmont (25-6) was a full 10 spots ahead of ASU (63rd to 73rd) in NET, while Yale (68th) was five spots ahead of the Sun Devils.
Alongside the talks of potentially expanding the NCAA Tournament, NIL money has reshaped the types of teams that have succeeded in the past two tournaments.
The big boys are big-boying the opposition.
Notably, all four No. 1 seeds made up the Final Four in 2025 — the first time that was the case since 2008. This year looks like another top-heavy field.
Duke, Arizona and Michigan project as powerhouses and in that order are the top three teams heading into March Madness. There’s a slight dropoff to Florida, Houston and UConn — on down the list.
But as those elite teams have risen in stature, so has the competitiveness deep into the major conferences.
And that, rightfully or wrongfully, could limit the opportunities of true Cinderella stories.
Follow @kzimmermanaz
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