Both teams will want a response, but who will come out on top at Old Trafford? We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash with our Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction and preview.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
Manchester United claimed all three points against Aston Villa in 44.1% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Aston Villa are looking to complete the league double over Man Utd for the first time since 1954-55. Michael Carrick has won all five of his Premier League home games and could become just the fourth manager in history to win his first six in the competition.Manchester United and Aston Villa will both hope to bounce back from disappointing results and recharge their Champions League qualification hopes when they meet on Sunday.
United return to Old Trafford after their 2-1 defeat away to 10-man Newcastle United. Jacob Ramsey was sent off in the first half before Casemiro equalised after Anthony Gordon’s penalty opener, only for William Osula’s stunning 90th-minute strike to steal victory.
That marked a first loss for United in seven Premier League matches since Michael Carrick took charge of his second spell, and a rare defeat in general. Having lost three of their first six top-flight games this season (W2 D1), United have since lost just three of their last 23 (W13 D7).
An upturn in form – buoyed by the support of caretaker Carrick, who has already beaten Manchester City and Arsenal – has United sitting level on 51 points with fourth-placed Villa, but ahead of their next visitors on goal difference.
Old Trafford has proved a home comfort for Carrick, winning all five of his Premier League home games as United boss (one in 2021, four in 2026). Only three managers have won each of their first six home matches in the competition: Sven-Göran Eriksson (first nine in 2007), Carlo Ancelotti (first seven in 2009), and Manuel Pellegrini (first 11 in 2013-14).
And goals should be no issue here, given United have scored in their last 17 Premier League games, since losing 1-0 at home to 10-man Everton in November. They last had a longer scoring streak between November 2012 and April 2013 under Alex Ferguson (23).
Central to those attacking hopes will again be Bruno Fernandes, whose goals and assists have been worth 23 points to Man Utd this season. Only three players’ goal involvements have been more valuable to the Red Devils in a Premier League campaign – Robin van Persie in 2012-13 (38), Eric Cantona in 1993-94 (26) and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2007-08 (25).
Unai Emery will know improvements are desperately needed, too, after João Pedro’s hat-trick put Villa to the sword in a 4-1 thrashing by Chelsea last time out in the competition. They did respond with a 1-0 away win over Lille in the first leg of their Europa League last-16 tie on Thursday thanks to Ollie Watkins’ looping header.
Concerns remain for Emery, though, as Villa have won just three of their last 11 Premier League games (D3 L5). Since the first match in this run – a 4-1 defeat to Arsenal on 30 December – only four sides have accrued fewer points than Emery’s side (12) in the competition.
That downturn in form may be due to the ongoing absences of Youri Tielemans and Boubacar Kamara in midfield, though at least John McGinn returned off the bench at Lille. Without any of that trio starting, Villa have won just one of six league outings (D2 L3).
They have averaged only 0.8 points-per-game, too, without their key midfielders. That is in stark contrast to the seven wins in 10 league matches managed when all three have started in 2025-26 (D2 L1), averaging 2.3 points-per-game.
The potential return of McGinn may free up Morgan Rogers, who has failed to score or assist in his last four league appearances. The Villa forward may hope to find more space with some midfield support returning behind him.
Of the 150 players to have had 1000+ touches in the Premier League this season (coming into this weekend’s games), Rogers has had the highest percentage of them while under pressure (83.7% – 1190/1422). He is also their joint-top scorer in the competition this season, finding the net eight times (level with Watkins).
At the back, Emery will sweat over the fitness of Matty Cash, who sat out of the Lille game, while Tielemans may not return until mid-April. Kamara’s season is over due to the knee injury he suffered at the start of this year.
As for United’s team news, Noussair Mazraoui, Lisandro Martínez and Mason Mount will all be assessed late before this clash. Patrick Dorgu is expected back later this month, while Matthijs de Ligt’s back injury should keep him out until early April.
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Rogers’ eye-catching double saw Villa to a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture back in December, and they will now be looking to complete the league double for the first time since 1954-55 against Man Utd.
However, United have lost just two of their last 37 home league games against Villa (W28 D7), going down 1-0 both times in December 2009 and September 2021.
United won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, thanks to late goals from Amad Diallo and Christian Eriksen. There was controversy as Rogers had an opener ruled out for an alleged foul on Altay Bayindir, with Emiliano Martínez also sent off in the first half.
The Red Devils have also kept 30 clean sheets against Sunday’s visitors in the Premier League – only Arsenal have managed more against a single opponent in the competition (31 vs Newcastle United).
Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backs Manchester United to get back on track here, with the hosts winning 44.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Villa are given a 29.1% chance of victory in the same data-led sims, while the draw accounted for the rest of the scenarios in 26.8%.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Head coach: Michael Carrick
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Lamare Bogarde, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana, Douglas Luiz, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Manchester United vs Aston Villa Prediction: Can Red Devils Solidify Third Spot In Champions League Race? Opta Analyst.
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