It’s Real Madrid vs Man City in the UEFA Champions League… again. Before the last-16 first leg at the Bernabéu on Wednesday, we look at six key subplots that could decide their latest tie.
The UEFA Champions League knockout rounds have begun, which can only mean one thing: Real Madrid and Manchester City are getting ready to do battle.
Yes, the Spanish and English giants meet in the last 16 over the next two weeks, making it a remarkable five years on the bounce that they will have played one another in the knockout stages of the Champions League.
They are both struggling to keep the pace in their respective domestic leagues, but will invariably fancy their chances in Europe. Only one will remain after the last 16, though, but who will it be?
We have taken a look at six subplots that could go a long way to deciding whether Real Madrid or Man City will be making their way into the quarter-finals to face either Atalanta or Bayern Munich.
Vinícius Júnior or Bust?
Even the most star-studded squad can be impacted by injury crises.
Perhaps this isn’t quite a crisis, but Real Madrid will very likely be without Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo for Wednesday’s first leg. While the first two may be back for next week’s meeting, it’s still a considerable disadvantage to contend with.
As such, Madrid and head coach Álvaro Arbeloa will be relying on Vinícius Júnior to an even greater degree than they already do.
Luckily for them, the Brazilian is one of the best big-game players around. He frequently raises his level on the biggest stage, with the Champions League knockout rounds a prime example.
Vinícius’ 26 goal involvements in Champions League knockout matches puts him behind just six players in the competition’s history.
Those 26 goal involvements have come from 37 knockout matches at a rate of 0.70 per game; only five players (20+ UCL knockout appearances) can better that record.
He’s already played a vital role for Madrid in UCL knockout games this season.
Madrid’s play-off tie against Benfica was marred by Gianluca Prestianni allegedly racially abusing Vinícius shortly after the Brazilian scored a wonderful goal in the first leg at the Estádio da Luz.
From the alleged incident to Benfica coach José Mourinho’s reaction to it after the match, it was a grim affair all round.
Fittingly, Vinícius went on to have the decisive impact in the second leg as well as the first, scoring Madrid’s clincher on the night to seal a 2-1 win and their progress via a 3-1 aggregate scoreline.
If Madrid are able to secure a positive result from Wedneday’s first leg, Vinícius will have almost certainly played a role.
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Knockout football is a game of ultra-small margins, and few positions influence those moments more than goalkeepers. It’s lucky, then, that both Madrid and City head into this game with a shot-stopper of proven pedigree.
Thibaut Courtois is a two-time Champions League winner with Real Madrid and has an exceptional track record for producing decisive performances in the competition’s biggest matches.
His display in the 2022 final against Liverpool remains his most notable example, where the Belgian almost single-handedly won his side the game.
Courtois made nine saves that night, the most ever recorded in a Champions League final on record (since 2003-04). According to our Expected Goals on Target (xGOT) model, his saves that night prevented more than two goals.
Courtois’ excellence has been sustained well beyond that night in Saint-Denis, though. Since, and including, the 2022 final, he has conceded just 39 goals from 53.2 expected goals on target faced in the Champions League, excluding own goals. His positive differential of +14.2 is the best of any goalkeeper in the competition during that period.
His opposite number is also a goalkeeper who has also been decisive at the sharp end of this competition.
Gianluigi Donnarumma was one of the stars last season as PSG won the trophy for the first time. The Italian produced a string of crucial saves during the knockout stages, including standout performances in ties against Aston Villa and Arsenal that kept PSG ahead at pivotal moments, as well as saving two penalties in the knockout-phase play-off shootout to thwart Liverpool.
Across the knockout rounds alone, Donnarumma conceded 2.9 goals fewer than the quality of chances faced would have suggested. To put that in context, only three goalkeepers have prevented more goals than that across the entirety of this season’s Champions League campaign so far.
Expect there to be plenty of goalmouth action at both ends. Just don’t expect the shots to go in.
Familiar Foes
One of the great things about European football is seeing teams go up against fresh opponents in exotic locations. New experiences, new challenges… oh and Real Madrid will play Manchester City at some point.
This will be the fifth season in a row that these two have faced off in the Champions League knockout stages, a record between any two teams in the competition’s history.
The first two-legged tie of this run was arguably their most famous. In the 2021-22 season, City won the first leg of their semi-final 4-3 in Manchester, and were 1-0 up until late on in the Bernabéu. However, goals in the 90th and 91st minute from substitute Rodrygo forced extra-time, before Karim Benzema’s penalty sent Los Blancos through to the final.
They met in the semis again a year later, with a 1-1 draw in Madrid followed by an emphatic 4-0 victory for City at the Etihad.
Things were much tighter in the 2023-24 quarter-finals, where a 3-3 draw in Spain was followed by a 1-1 draw in England, with Real Madrid eventually winning on penalties.
Last season, it was Madrid who came out on top again. Two late goals in Manchester gave them a 3-2 win in the first leg, before Kylian Mbappé’s remarkable hat-trick at the Bernabéu gave Carlo Ancelotti’s side a 6-3 aggregate victory in the knockout play-off round.
They even met earlier this season in the league phase, which we’ll come to shortly.
What will happen this time? Well, in their 15 total games against one another in the Champions League, there have been five wins for Madrid, five for City, and five draws, so who knows?
A Clash of Styles: Counter-Attacks vs Patient Build-Up
By now, we know what we’re getting from this game: two heavyweights battling it out in a clash of styles; the lightning-quick transitions of Real Madrid versus the patient build-up of Man City.
As mentioned, City and Madrid have faced each other 15 times in the Champions League. Across those meetings, City have averaged 55% possession, reflecting their role as the more proactive side in possession, while Madrid have often been content to defend compactly and attack quickly.
Even in their most recent meeting this season, when Madrid edged possession at the Bernabéu (51% to 49%), City still enjoyed more possession in the most territorially dangerous areas of the pitch.
It’s a style we’ve seen writ large in both teams’ wider numbers this campaign.
Heading into the round-of-16 ties, City have scored more goals following open-play sequences of at least 10 passes than any other team in the Champions League, with six.
Madrid, by contrast, are the competition’s most dangerous side in direct attacking situations. No side have scored more goals following direct attacks than Madrid (four – level with Benfica), and they also rank first for direct attacks that end in a shot or a touch in the opposition’s box (31).
With Mbappé most likely ruled out through injury, Vinícius Júnior will carry much of Madrid’s transitional threat. Containing him will be one of City’s most important tasks in the first leg.
New Signings, New City?
Man City utilised the January transfer window to try and boost their chances of glory in the second half of the campaign, and it’s worked pretty well.
Proven Premier League pair Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi were brought in for a combined fee of around £85 million, and both have impressed in their first couple of months in Manchester.
Former Bournemouth winger Semenyo has seven goals in 13 appearances in all competitions for City, one more than Omar Marmoush in half the number of games (six goals in 26 games).
Only Haaland (29), Phil Foden (10) and Rayan Cherki (9) have more goals for Pep Guardiola’s side this season, and all have played at least 37 games.
As for Guéhi, the former Crystal Palace captain has slotted in seamlessly into City’s backline, after arriving to help with an injury crisis at centre-back in January.
That crisis has now eased considerably with Rúben Dias and John Stones both back fit, and the former is expected to partner Guéhi in defence on Wednesday.
The England international has made eight appearances for City in all competitions, winning six and drawing two. He is yet to lose in a City shirt, while Semenyo has lost just one of his 13 games (W10 D2).
Since joining, Guéhi has competed in 31 aerial duels, at least 10 more than any other City player, winning an impressive 77.4% of them.
Can Semenyo and Guéhi have the same impact in Europe? Nights playing against Real Madrid in the Champions League is why they joined, and don’t be surprised to see them rise to the occasion.
As You Were for City?
It’s understandable why – jokingly or not – many have been quick to dismiss this tie as “boring” because, as mentioned, it’s the fifth season in succession that Madrid and City have tussled in the knockout phase of the Champions League – a competition record.
But their familiarity is even deeper than that, because they’ve already played each other in the UCL this season, a 2-1 win for City at the Bernabéu in December.
How relevant that contest is now is very much up for debate, especially given Madrid were under the guidance of Xabi Alonso back then. But it may provide some clues as to how City will approach the game.
Pep Guardiola’s side didn’t have any particularly great control of that contest, with their 48.3% possession their seventh lowest in a UCL game under Guardiola. That seemed to serve them well, however.
The typically frantic nature of Madrid’s play worked to City’s advantage, and although they had less of the ball, their 118 passes in the final third and pass accuracy in that area of the pitch (78.8%) were far superior to their hosts’.
This was important because it reflected City’s ability to carve through Madrid’s midfield and backline, and they ended the game with a whopping eight shots on target to the home side’s one.
City’s eight shots on target in that game is their joint most in an any away Champions League game. Granted, their expected goals output of 2.6 was helped by them having – and scoring – a penalty, but Guardiola’s men looked a considerably more cohesive and dangerous attacking side back in December.
They opted against control back then and it served them well; it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see them follow a similar path again.
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