You would have had to have been living under a rock this year not to take a punt that Donald Trump would attack Iran.
From when the US President reassured Iranian protesters that “help is coming” in the middle of January to the arrival of the 1,092-feet-long USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to the region two weeks ago, the clues were there.
On the evening of 17 February, Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Trump about Iran. The possibility of the US using British airbases for strikes in Iran was raised by Trump.
Following Starmer’s refusal, Trump posted an angry message the next day. He complained that the UK had made “a big mistake” by transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, which houses the Diego Garcia airbase. “It may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia” to attack Iran, Trump said.
So we know Trump told Starmer of his intentions. Is it feasible that Starmer didn’t suspect the US President would try again and push the UK to commit to as much involvement as possible? Why didn’t he get the political and legal ball rolling sooner?
And now Starmer finds himself on the back foot, forced to call a news conference to address head-on criticism that the UK Government has been slow in its response. “We are and we have done everything we can at speed,” he said.
For all this pushback, the apparent dithering and delay over whether to approve the use of British bases have not only annoyed the US but also infuriated Gulf nations, particularly the United Arab Emirates, where most of the 300,000 Britons in the region are based.
Trump has certainly not been shy of lobbing a few insults Starmer’s way. On Tuesday, he said: “This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.”
The Spectator magazine reported that at a meeting of the National Security Council on Friday, Starmer was in favour of granting the US access to UK military bases sooner but was overruled by an alliance of Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Attorney General Lord Hermer.
Asked about the timeline of the decision-making at a news conference on Thursday, Starmer danced on the head of a pin, saying no specific request had arrived from the Americans until last Saturday afternoon.
The Prime Minister said that there was “no concrete decision to be made” last Friday and the request came “late in the afternoon” on Saturday.
“We then, as you would have expected, went through the details with the US over the next day and ultimately reached a decision on Sunday, which I announced then on Sunday evening, about eight or nine o’clock,” he said.
But that wouldn’t have ruled out a discussion where individual Cabinet ministers made their positions clear in advance of a formal request. Should this discussion about Britain’s red lines not have taken place a fortnight ago?
Are we seeing Cabinet ministers flex with the future leadership in mind, and winning over the left-leaning party membership? Or simply the fallout from a damaged premier whose authority is under constant question?
Starmer also rejected suggestions that the government failed to have enough military assets in the Middle East after RAF Akrotiri was hit, saying the UK had pre-deployed fighter jets, air defence missiles and advanced radar to Cyprus and Qatar in January and February. But this does beg the question: if the UK was as prepared as he argues, why not be 100 per cent ready and square your Cabinet off first?
F-35 and Typhoon aircraft based in Cyprus have been flying defensive missions to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. However, the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon will not depart for Cyprus until next week because the ship is being brought out of maintenance and fitted with the required weapons. The symbolism of it languishing in port has not been wasted on anyone in government or overseas.
Defence Secretary John Healey belatedly arrived in Cyprus on Thursday after criticism over the UK’s response to drone attacks on the RAF base on the island four days ago. Cyprus’s High Commissioner to the UK, Dr Kyriacos Kouros, said he was “disappointed” with the information shared after the base was hit on Sunday night.
Defending his response, Starmer said: “While the region has been plunged into chaos, my focus is on providing calm, level-headed leadership in the national interest.
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“That means deploying our military and diplomatic strength to protect our people, and it means having the strength to stand firm by our values and our principles, no matter the pressure to do otherwise.”
The Foreign Office’s decision on Wednesday to delay its first chartered flight for British nationals out of Oman due to technical issues only compounded the impression of a slow, clunky machine, failing to react to the needs of its stranded citizens.
The Prime Minister won’t rule out where things may lead and what role the UK may end up playing. This is an unpredictable conflict, without knowable objectives, end or consequences. But only six days in, Starmer is already being judged for his actions at its beginning and is being found wanting.
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