Chelsea head to north Wales for what should be an exciting encounter in the FA Cup fifth round. We look ahead to Saturday’s match with our Wrexham vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Wrexham vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites, with a 69.2% win probability inside 90 minutes according to the Opta supercomputer. Josh Windass has scored five goals in his last five FA Cup starts, including the winner for Wrexham in the last round. Chelsea have progressed from their last 24 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, since losing 4-2 to Bradford City in January 2015.Wrexham will look to prove their Premier League credentials when they take on Chelsea in a tantalising FA Cup fifth-round encounter on Saturday.
Powered by millionaire owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds, three promotions in as many seasons have seen Wrexham surge from the National League up to the Championship, where they occupy the final play-off spot with 11 games remaining.
The Welsh side remain keen to punch above their weight and have already overcome Premier League opposition in the FA Cup, defeating Nottingham Forest 4-3 on penalties in the third round after a dramatic 3-3 draw at SToK Cae Ras.
Now, in the fifth round for the first time since 1996-97, they face their biggest test in the shape of Chelsea – winners of the inaugural Club World Cup last year, six-time top-flight champions and two-time Champions League winners.
Wrexham head into the encounter in solid form, having made it five matches unbeaten – a run that started with a 1-0 victory over Ipswich Town in the fourth round – by beating Charlton Athletic 1-0 at the weekend.
Despite the stature of their big-spending opposition, Phil Parkinson reminded his team that they have nothing to lose.
“We’ll be going all out to produce a really good performance, and we’ll see where that takes us on the night,” said Parkinson.
“But we know we’ve got to respect Chelsea. What a squad of players they’ve got. They’ve spent billions over the last 10 years.
“We’re just looking forward to it and go in ready to play with nothing to lose and everything to gain.”
Wrexham may have had more reason to be confident of an upset had Chelsea not defeated fellow Champions League hopefuls Aston Villa 4-1 on Wednesday.
It was an important return to form for the Blues, who were held to a 1-1 draw by relegation-threatened Burnley in the Premier League and beaten by Arsenal 2-1 in their two prior outings.
Wesley Fofana and Pedro Neto were shown red cards in those matches, but will both be available for the trip to north Wales.
Neto has scored four goals in his two FA Cup appearances this season, including a hat-trick in the 4-0 win over Hull City in the fourth round. No Blues player has scored in rounds three, four and five in the same season since Pedro in 2016-17.
The Portugal international will likely feature in Chelsea’s front four, with Estêvão and Jamie Gittens absent with hamstring injuries. Marc Cucurella is not expected to return, either.
Wrexham are without Ben Sheaf for the rest of the season after he suffered medial knee ligament damage, while Matty James and Liberato Cacace have been dealing with toe and hamstring problems respectively.
Wrexham vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
It has been over 40 years since Wrexham and Chelsea have met in a competitive fixture, with their last clash being a 1-0 win for the Welsh side in the second tier in February 1982.
That was one of only two wins Wrexham have managed against Chelsea, with the Blues winning four of their nine previous meetings in all competitions.
One of those victories came in the FA Cup in the 1981-82 campaign, when Chelsea eliminated Wrexham from the FA Cup fourth round – though they required two replays to get the job done.
Chelsea have already won away in Wales this season, too, beating Cardiff City 3-1 in the EFL Cup before their semi-final elimination at the hands of Arsenal.
Wrexham vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea won 69.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, so they are heavy favourites, but strange things can happen in the FA Cup.
Wrexham came out on top in 13.8% of the projections, while 17% ended in a draw – and if the game goes to extra-time or penalties, those winning percentages will likely see significant shifts.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Wrexham vs Chelsea Prediction: Red Dragons Get Another Chance to Test Their Mettle Opta Analyst.
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