Sunday’s Derby della Madonnina perhaps gives Milan their last opportunity to threaten Inter’s Serie A title charge. Ahead of the game at San Siro, we look at five Milan vs Inter subplots.
Italian football’s reputation has taken a bit of a kicking recently.
Inter’s shock elimination at the hands of Bodø/Glimt in the knockout play-off round of the UEFA Champions League last week was followed by Juventus also exiting against Galatasaray, despite a spirited effort in the second leg. Atalanta’s dramatic comeback against Borussia Dortmund saved Serie A from the ignominious scenario of not having any representation in the last 16 of the European Cup/Champions League for the first time since the 1987-88 season.
While it might not be the best time to be an Italian football fan, there is something about watching Milan against Inter in the iconic surroundings of San Siro that will always intrigue.
When the final whistle was blown in the reverse fixture in November, it was the Milan players who raised their arms in triumph, having won 1-0. It meant they went second in Serie A, a point ahead of the Nerazzurri and only behind then-leaders Roma by two points.
Those celebrations seem like rather a long time ago now as they prepare to meet again.
Ahead of Sunday’s Derby della Madonnina, Inter lead Milan by 10 points at the top of Serie A. Therefore, realistically, Massimiliano Allegri’s men must beat them again just to preserve some semblance of a race for the Scudetto.
Only three months ago, we wrote about how tight the title race in Italy’s top flight was. There was only one point separating the top four at the time, while Juventus in seventh place were only five points off first. After winning 14 of their 15 games since the last Milan derby in late November (D1), Inter have opened up a 10-point lead, and are 16 points ahead of Roma in fourth.
Inter have 67 points. It’s just the third time they’ve had as many after 27 matches in a single Serie A season after 2006-07 (73) and 2023-24 (72).
A victory for Cristian Chivu’s side on Sunday will give them a 13-point advantage with just 10 games remaining, surely ending any discussion about where the Scudetto is heading in 2025-26.
Inter won the title in 97.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s most recent simulations, while Milan were only able to overtake them in 2.1%.
That will obviously change should the Rossoneri complete a league double over their city rivals, but where could this game be won and lost?
We’ve looked at five key subplots that should go a long way to deciding how much life is left in the Serie A title race after Sunday night.
Milan Must Avoid Another Draw
Draws are a killer in a title race, which Milan know all to well. Allegri’s men have only been beaten twice in the league this season, while Inter have lost four times. However, Milan have also drawn nine games, compared to their rivals doing so just once. That is where the huge points gap has appeared from.
Milan’s inability to nudge a tight game over the line in their favour has seen them drop 18 points in those nine draws, though they managed to avoid making it 10 stalemates last time out against Cremonese after Strahinja Pavlovic broke the deadlock in the 89th minute (Rafael Leão added a second in stoppage time).
The only way for Milan to give themselves even a slim chance of rescuing their title ambitions is to win this game, which they did back in November thanks to a Christian Pulisic goal and a Mike Maignan penalty save.
However, one of their two losses this season came in their last home game against Parma, while the late win at Cremonese was far from convincing.
They have won four of the last six Milan derbies, though, and are unbeaten in six games against Inter in all competitions for the first time since a run of 10 between November 2002 and April 2005.
Of course, even with victory here, there will be a seven-point gap to close in just 10 games, so many more wins will need to follow, but walk before you can run and all that. Milan must start with three points on Sunday.
Maignan to the Rossoneri’s Rescue Again?
Inter have scored comfortably the most goals in Serie A this season (64), at least 18 more than any other team, and 21 more than Milan (43).
Lautaro Martínez has scored 14 of those goals and is the only player in Serie A to have reached double figures this season. However, the Argentina international is likely to miss this game with a calf injury.
The Nerazzurri will still pose a big threat, though, and so Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan is likely to be busy.
Only Roma (19) have conceded fewer goals than Milan (20) in Serie A this season, and the latter largely have Maignan to thank for that. The French stopper has conceded those 20 goals from 29.2 expected goals on target (xGOT) conceded, meaning he has overperformed by 9.2 xGOT, the most in the league. In fact, only Angers’ Hervé Koffi (9.4) has prevented more goals in Europe’s top five leagues.
The last derby in November brought out the best in Maignan. He made six saves in the game, one of which was from a Hakan Çalhanoglu penalty.
Inter had 20 shots in total, the most they’ve had without scoring in a Serie A Milan derby on record (since 2004-05).
Without their top scorer, Chivu’s men could find it tougher to find the net than usual, but if they can get past Maignan, the game, and the title, could be there for the taking.
Can Milan Stop Dimarco?
Martínez may be absent, but as long as Inter have Federico Dimarco, chances to score will be there. The Italian wing-back has 20 Serie A goal involvements this season, including 14 assists, twice as many as any other player.
The only other defender to record as many goal involvements in a single Serie A season since it expanded to 20 teams (in 2004) was former Milan player Massimo Oddo while he was at Lazio in 2005-06 (7 goals, 13 assists).
And it’s not just because his teammates are finishing well. Dimarco has earned his assists.
The Italy international has created at least 19 more chances than anyone else in Serie A this season (74). Of those, 28 have been ‘big chances’ – defined as a chance you would reasonably expect a team to score from – more than double any other player (no-one else has more than 12). In fact, it’s six more than anyone else from Europe’s top five leagues.
Half of his 20 goal involvements have come in his last six games, with Dimarco racking up a remarkable eight assists in a run of five outings against Pisa (2, and he also scored), Cremonese (1), Sassuolo (3), Juventus (1) and Lecce (1), before he opened the scoring in the 2-0 win over Genoa last weekend.
The 28-year-old has been almost unstoppable in Serie A of late, so Milan will have to figure out how to limit his influence from Inter’s left side, as they did back in November when Dimarco created just one chance.
Modric vs Barella
As with so many big games, the midfield battle will be important on Sunday. But with the greatest of respect to others, Luka Modric and Nicolò Barella will be the headline acts.
Modric, at the age of 40, is still playing at the highest level and doing so effectively. Only eight players have created more chances than him in Serie A this term (45).
Given his age, some expected the Croatian to be used sparingly following his move from Real Madrid last summer, but he has made more Serie A appearances than any other Milan outfielder this season (26) and all but one were starts. Modric has chipped in with two goals and three assists.
Barella, meanwhile, has five assists and a goal in 24 Serie A games this season and has created 45 chances from open play; only Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz (47) and teammate Dimarco (46) can better that.
Both had quiet games in the reverse fixture, each winning possession seven times but only creating one chance between them (Barella).
If either team wins this game, though, surely Modric or Barella will play a big role.
Captain America to Star Again?
Christian Pulisic scored the winner in the reverse fixture, at a stage of the season when the United States international was in excellent form.
He does often rise to the big occasion, but he will need to rediscover that form if possible, having had very little impact since the turn of the year.
Pulisic’s last goal for Milan in Serie A was against Hellas Verona on 28 December; he hasn’t recorded a goal or an assist in any of his nine league appearances since.
However, the former Chelsea winger does have a good record against Inter, having found the net in three of his last six Milan derbies in all competitions.
Allegri has another attacking weapon, though, with Rafael Leão now Milan’s top scorer in the league this season after he slotted his ninth of the campaign in the win at Cremonese.
Pulisic and Leão have played as a front pairing in the last two games for Milan, and if they can drag Inter’s defence around as much as Bodø/Glimt were able to in the Champions League, they could be in business.
Milan vs Inter Prediction
The Opta supercomputer heavily favours Inter as far as the title goes, as we’ve mentioned, and it also has the league leaders as likeliest to win the derby on Sunday. Inter won 41.7% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations, compared to Milan’s 28.1%.
A draw, which would still be a decent result for the Nerazzurri, occurred in the remaining 30.2% of sims.
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Milan vs Inter: Five Key Milan Derby Subplots as Rossoneri Title Hopes Enter Last-Chance Saloon Opta Analyst.
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