We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash at Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Can the leaders take another step towards the title?
Arsenal vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
With a 62.8% win likelihood, Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites. Chelsea are only handed a 17.4% chance of claiming three points. Chelsea are winless in their last eight Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L5), their longest since a run of 19 between 1995 and 2005. Arsenal have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League London derby matches (W18 D6).Arsenal quietened the noise last weekend.
The Gunners’ slip-up at Wolves had left the door open for Manchester City to close the gap at the top of the Premier League to two points, and Pep Guardiola’s team obliged, beating Newcastle United on Saturday.
It put even more pressure on Sunday’s north London derby, but Igor Tudor’s Tottenham Hotspur ultimately offered little resistance as braces from Viktor Gyökeres and Eberechi Eze propelled Mikel Arteta’s team to another 4-1 win over their rivals.
Viktor Gyökeres delivers
Premier LeagueViktor Gyökeres Produced Most Complete Arsenal Performance in North London Derby
4 days ago Oliver HopkinsThat victory restored Arsenal’s five-point advantage, and bar Declan Rice’s mistake leading to Randal Kolo Muani’s goal, it was a dominant Gunners display – just the kind they needed to get firmly back on track in their title bid.
Man City do, of course, have a game in hand on Arsenal, and Guardiola’s chasers play before the Gunners again this weekend, heading to Elland Road to take on Leeds United on Saturday, with Arteta’s side facing local rivals again.
Chelsea head to Emirates Stadium on the back of throwing away two points late on against Burnley last time out. But like the Gunners, Liam Rosenior’s team have had a free week to prepare themselves fully for this contest.
These sides met recently in the EFL Cup semi-finals, with Arsenal progressing 4-2 on aggregate.
Rosenior faced some scrutiny for Chelsea’s performance in the second leg as, trailing 3-2 in the tie overall, the Blues never really got going. They had 14 attempts, yet only two hit the target and their chances were worth just 0.64 expected goals (xG). Former Chelsea man Kai Havertz delivered the knockout blow late on.
While Arsenal were happy to sit back and soak up the pressure on that occasion, the onus will be on them on Sunday, especially if Man City get a positive result against Leeds.
And they have recent history on their side when it comes to derby fixtures.
Arsenal have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League London derby matches (W18 D6), a 1-0 home defeat to West Ham last February.
Since the start of 2022-23, the Gunners have scored in all but two of 44 London derbies, both against West Ham (0-2 in December 2023, 0-1 in February 2025).
Chelsea, meanwhile, have lost eight of their last nine away Premier League matches against sides starting the day top of the table, winning the other 2-1 against Man City in May 2021.
They have played nine away top-flight games against Arsenal when the Gunners are top and won one (D2 L6), a 2-0 win in March 1948.
But that is not to say there isn’t some hope for the Blues.
Although only five teams in Europe’s top five leagues have conceded fewer goals this season than Arsenal (21), who have the lowest xG against figure (19.2), the Gunners have made four errors leading to goals in the top flight since the turn of the year. Only Spurs (five) have committed more such mistakes, while these errors account for 44% of the league goals Arsenal have conceded in 2026 (4/9).
Chelsea have also won both of their away Premier League matches under Rosenior. Liverpool’s Arne Slot was the last Premier League boss to win his first three top-flight away games in charge, while the last Englishman to do so was Tim Sherwood at Spurs in 2013-14.
However, after conceding late on in their home draw with Burnley, Chelsea have now dropped 19 points from winning positions this season.
Only West Ham (20) have dropped more points from such scenarios in the competition in 2025-26.
The Blues have scored first in their last two games but did not win either of those fixtures (1-1 vs Burnley, 2-2 vs Leeds). They last failed to win three in a row despite going 1-0 up in each back in May 2016.
These teams drew the reverse fixture 1-1 back in November, with Mikel Merino netting Arsenal’s equaliser at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea were arguably unfortunate not to take more than a point from that game, and they may well have done had they not been reduced to 10 men, with Moisés Caicedo seeing red.
The Blues have only received more Premier League red cards against Liverpool (eight) than they have the Gunners (seven). And with Chelsea having already received six red cards this term in the top flight, Rosenior will need to ensure his team remain disciplined.
Arsenal, meanwhile, will be hoping last week’s derby double has reignited Eze.
The winter was a struggle for the former Crystal Palace attacking midfielder, who did not manage a shot on target in the league between netting a hat-trick against Spurs in November, and then opening the scoring in last week’s north London derby.
Eze has scored each of his last 11 Premier League goals in London, with all six of his goals for Arsenal this season coming in London derbies (one vs Palace, five vs Spurs), the most ever by a player in a season without scoring outside of derby games.
The last Arsenal player with more derby goals in a season was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in 2018-19 (seven).
Arsenal vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
In his second game in charge of Arsenal in December 2019, Arteta lost 2-1 at the Emirates against Chelsea.
Since then, his Gunners side have lost just one of 15 games against the Blues in all competitions (W10 D4).
In fact, Arteta’s 10 wins against Chelsea are the joint most he has managed against an opponent while in charge of Arsenal (along with 10 vs Wolves).
Arteta’s Arsenal have also scored more goals (31) against Chelsea than they have any other team.
Chelsea are winless in their last eight Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L5), their longest since a run of 19 between 1995 and 2005.
Arsenal have won their last three home league games against Chelsea, last winning more consecutively between 1990 and 1994 (five).
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is still backing Arsenal for the title, at 83.1%.
And the Gunners are made the favourites for this one, with a 62.8% win probability.
Chelsea came out on top in just 17.4% of the simulations, while there is a 19.8% chance of a draw.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Declan Rice, Martín Zubimendi, Martin Ødegaard, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke.
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Reece James, Josh Acheampong, Trevoh Chalobah, Malo Gusto, Moisés Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Enzo Fernández, Cole Palmer, João Pedro, Pedro Neto.
Head coach: Liam Rosenior
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday in north London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction: Gunners Hope Immense Derby Record Keeps Man City at Arm’s Length Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about arsenal vs chelsea prediction gunners hope immense derby record keeps man city at arm s length was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction: Gunners Hope Immense Derby Record Keeps Man City at Arm’s Length )
Also on site :
- Readers push back on ChatGPT use in Massachusetts executive branch
- Swastika Mukherjee Stars in Indo-American Co-Production ‘Chheledhora,’ Bengali Thriller Shooting in Arunachal Pradesh (EXCLUSIVE)
- Vicky Oganyan coaching Burroughs, LA Mission College basketball to historic seasons