The Texas Senate race is making Republicans nervous.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary, and the race is so close that an expensive runoff election is possible. A runoff could draw resources away from other close elections around the country and aid Democratic efforts to flip the seat.
Republican donors have poured over $60 million into the state to defeat Paxton, who is also running against Representative Wesley Hunt. But Paxton is still the frontrunner in the race despite the fact that he didn’t even air any TV ads until the middle of February with the election on March 3. If none of the candidates get more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff would take place 10 weeks later.
Paxton has been hammered by attack ads airing his many scandals since he was first elected attorney general in 2014. In 2015, he was indicted by a grand jury on securities fraud and faced civil action from the SEC over it. Paxton also faced a whistleblower lawsuit in 2020 from seven aides in his office accusing him of abuse of office, bribery, and other crimes. He escaped trial in both cases, though he was ordered to pay a hefty settlement to his aides.
The Texas House still impeached him in 2023, only for the state Senate to acquit him of any wrongdoing. Last year, his wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” referring to her husband’s extramarital affair. Many Republicans feel that all of this would be easy fodder for the Democratic challenger, whether that’s Representative Jasmine Crockett or state Representative James Talarico.
“Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Politico. Paxton, meanwhile, enjoys strong support from the MAGA right over his efforts to fight the results of the 2020 election and sue Pfizer over the Covid-19 vaccine, among other conservative credentials.
Internal polling from the National Republican Senatorial Committee has Paxton losing to Talarico by three points and Cornyn defeating Paxton by the same margin. If Crockett is the Democratic nominee, she would lose to Cornyn by seven points and Paxton by one, according to the poll.
Neither fear nor polling has helped Cornyn’s standing, and President Trump hasn’t offered his help either, saying earlier this month of the Republican candidates that “I’m friendly with all of them. I like all of them, all three.” One thing is for certain: The Republican primary is going to be close, and the winner will have a tall order: Democrats are turning out in their own Senate primary in record numbers.
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