Big Ten football 2026 preview: Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State on top as conference aims for fourth consecutive national title ...Middle East

Six months from the 2026 season, clarity is coming to the Big Ten. The transfer portal has closed and rosters are largely set. Staff changes have been made, the conference schedule is complete, and a pecking order is beginning to form.

We’ll address that matter below. For now, let’s briefly examine the clean sheets and hot seats.

More than half the conference’s head coaches are either in their first year or facing termination if the season goes awry.

The four newcomers are Michigan’s Kyle Whittingham, Michigan State’s Pat Fitzgerald, Penn State’s Matt Campbell and UCLA’s Bob Chesney — a vastly more accomplished collection, in our view, than the group of SEC arrivals.

Meanwhile, we count six Big Ten coaches with seat temperatures that range from warm to scalding: Maryland’s Mike Locksley, Nebraska’s Matt Rhule, Northwestern’s David Braun, Rutgers’ Greg Schiano, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell and, of course, USC’s Lincoln Riley (because his seat is always above room temperature).

The dynamics set to unfold across those 10 programs (good and bad, assumed and unexpected, instant and delayed) will have a major impact on the conference race. The challenge is forecasting how each situation will play out. Where will the plots twist?

The following projections will be updated at the conclusion of spring practice.

1. Indiana

Last year: 16-0/9-0 Comment: Given the talent IU must replace, there were myriad reasons to pick Ohio State or Oregon for the top spot and only one reason to pick the Hoosiers: the belief that coach Curt Cignetti simply is better than everyone else — that he’s better at evaluating talent, developing talent, maximizing talent and establishing discipline and accountability. And if that’s the case, the details don’t much matter.

2. Oregon

Last year: 13-2/8-1 Comment: Few teams emerged from the talent acquisition-and-retention cycle in better shape than the Ducks, who kept quarterback Dante Moore, a slew of stellar defensive linemen and their standard array of playmakers. They might have the best two-deep — not in the conference, in the country — but the staff turnover gives us pause. Are Dan Lanning’s new coordinators, Drew Mehringer on offense and Chris Hampton on defense, up to the challenge?

3. Ohio State

Last year: 12-2/9-0 Comment: Admittedly, the Buckeyes could make this projection look foolish. They have elite talents at quarterback (Julian Sayin) and receiver (Jeremiah Smith), and we expect the offensive line to perform at a higher level in 2026 than it did last season. (If not for their bye in the CFP, which adversely impacted their performance against Miami, the Buckeyes might have repeated as national champions.) But the wave of departures to the NFL leaves more questions on defense than we are used to processing.

4. Michigan

Last year: 9-4/7-2 Comment: Having watched Kyle Whittingham turn Utah into a multi-year wrecking ball, the Hotline gave initial consideration to slotting Michigan in the top spot. (Ultimately, we opted against that projection because the only coach in the conference we trust more than Whittingham is Cignetti.) The Wolverines have more than enough talent to bully their way to the playoff. Bryce Underwood is the most gifted quarterback Whittingham has coached by a factor of five.

5. Penn State

Last year: 7-6/3-6 Comment: It’s odd to think of the Nittany Lions as a sleeper pick, but given the collapse last season and new coach Matt Campbell’s roster overhaul, they don’t necessarily give off contender vibes in what could be the nation’s toughest conference. Campbell is counting on the players he brought from Iowa State, including quarterback Rocco Becht, to power the turnaround. And we are counting on Campbell.

6. USC

Last year: 9-4/7-2 Comment: This projection for USC is assuredly bleaker than most, but the Hotline has zero faith in Lincoln Riley to produce a championship- or playoff-caliber defense. We need to see it. Is new coordinator Gary Patterson the answer? He hasn’t been a full-time coach in five years — since his TCU tenure ended in 2021 — so consider us skeptical. Deeply skeptical. And if there’s any regression on offense traceable to the departure of all-everything receiver Makai Lemon, USC’s position relative to the best in the Big Ten could deteriorate.

7. Iowa

Last year: 9-4/6-3 Comment: For all the attrition in Iowa City, the most important component remains in place. No, not coach Kirk Ferentz, although he does a nice job. We’re referring, of course, to the mastermind of Iowa’s stellar defense: coordinator Phil Parker. As long as the 62-year-old Parker oversees that unit, Iowa will be relevant within the Big Ten. Whatever offense the Hawkeyes extract from their roster — quarterback Mark Gronowski is out of eligibility — will be a bonus.

8. Washington

Last year: 9-4/5-4 Comment: Here’s another team with the potential to make this projection look foolish. That said, the Hotline maintains a prove-it approach with the Huskies. Their offense must prove it can execute against the best in the conference; quarterback Demond Williams must prove his transfer reversal has no lasting impact; and the lines of scrimmage must prove they can hold up each week. Oh, and let’s not forget the need to replace two of the conference’s best playmakers, tailback Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston.

9. Illinois

Last year: 9-4/5-4 Comment: The floor has been raised in Champaign to the point that we fully expect coach Bret Bielema and Co. to produce another eight- or nine-win season and remain somewhere on the conference’s second tier. Whether it’s the top or bottom of that tier depends largely on the whims of the season (injuries, lucky bounces, bad breaks). But the Illini have a quarterback to watch, as well: Katin Houser, a transfer from East Carolina with the talent to become one of the most impactful newcomers in the Big Ten.

10. Minnesota

Last year: 8-5/5-4 Comment: Few coaches consistently maximize the available talent as well as PJ Fleck, whose Gophers have been bowl-eligible in all but one of his non-COVID seasons. With gifted quarterback Drake Lindsey now a sophomore, the offense should function efficiently. Whether Minnesota can escape the Big Ten’s muddled middle remains to be seen. The schedule, which does not include Ohio State or Oregon, should help.

11. Nebraska

Last year: 7-6/4-5 Comment: The Cornhuskers stand as one of the most interesting teams in the conference with quarterback Anthony Colandrea arriving from UNLV to replace Dylan Raiola (Oregon) and Rob Aurich taking over the defense. Aurich coached a stellar unit at San Diego State last season, whereas Nebraska’s defense was merely mediocre. Fun fact: The Huskers haven’t posted a winning record in conference play since 2016.

12. UCLA

Last year: 3-9/3-6 Comment: The first year of Bob Chesney’s tenure, combined with the return of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, should result in immediate improvement. But will the Bruins become truly relevant in their not-so-new conference? Are they capable of ascending to the second tier — the realm of USC, Washington and Iowa — or is their ceiling lowered by mediocre personnel where it matters most: at the line of scrimmage? At this point, we see serious limits to the Westwood turnaround.

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13. Wisconsin

Last year: 4-8/2-7 Comment: Which version of the 2025 Badgers should we expect next fall: the offensively inept edition that lost six consecutive games and pushed Luke Fickell onto the hottest of seats? Or the gritty, resourceful edition that beat Washington and Illinois in November and offered a morsel of hope for 2026? Honestly, we have no clue. But if the Badgers start slow, the dark clouds could gather quickly.

14. Northwestern

Last year: 7-6/4-5 Comment: The trajectory in Evanston depends almost entirely on the success of two newcomers: offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who’s back in the Big Ten after his fateful tenure with the Raiders, and quarterback Aidan Chiles, the gifted transfer from Michigan State. If that duo doesn’t produce the desired results sooner than later, the Wildcats’ first season in their new, $862 million stadium will be a total dud.

15. Michigan State

Last year: 4-8/1-8 Comment: For all the understandable hype accompanying Pat Fitzgerald’s return to coaching, an uncomfortable reality is often overlooked: Remove the COVID season, when the sport was upside down, and Fitzgerald posted a 3-24 record in conference play in his final three years at Northwestern. Add his post-termination hiatus to the ledger, and it has been eight years since Fitzgerald posted a winning record in a normal season. We’ll give him two years to reset the trajectory in East Lansing.

16. Purdue

Last year: 2-10/0-9 Comment: Faith in coach Barry Odom is the main reason — actually, he’s the only reason — to believe the Boilermakers can avoid another fall in the conference cellar. Odom produced bowl-eligible seasons in his second year at both Missouri and UNLV, so a major turnaround in West Lafayette isn’t completely out of the question.

17. Maryland

Last year: 4-8/1-8 Comment: Team September better improve its performance in October and November or coach Mike Locksley will be out of a job by December. In the past two seasons, the Terps are 6-0 in non-conference play and 2-16 within the Big Ten. The presence of sophomore quarterback Malik Washington gives Locksley a 50-50 chance to avoid a dismissal.

18. Rutgers

Last year: 5-7/2-7 Comment: We could have slotted Maryland or Purdue here — the lines are blurred at the bottom of the conference. Why Rutgers for last place? Because that’s exactly where their defense was last season: The Scarlet Knights allowed 7.6 yards-per-play, dead last in major college football. Unless that changes dramatically, they are destined for the bottom tier.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716

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