Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Here is last week’s edition, which looked at coaches on the hot seat.)
To this point, the Big 12 has equaled, if not surpassed, the lofty preseason expectations. But it’s increasingly easy to spot trouble lurking in the month that matters most.
Two of the top players are hurt.
One of the frontrunners is wobbling.
Two bubble teams are losing traction.
The conference’s crash-and-burn scenario, while unlikely, is not implausible.
NCAA Tournament success is measured by both quantity and quality: How many teams participate and how far they advance. In other words: units earned. (Every game played is worth approximately $2 million over a six-year span.)
Ideally, the Big 12 would send nine or 10 teams into March Madness, with at least half advancing to the second weekend and one or two reaching the Final Four.
But recent developments, including two torn anterior cruciate ligaments, have conspired to narrow the path.
Texas Tech is assured an at-large bid. But without star forward JT Toppin, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury, the Red Raiders will be hard-pressed to survive the opening weekend, much less the regionals.
The same goes for BYU, which lost high-scoring wing Richie Saunders to an ACL tear days before the Toppin injury.
A conference that seemingly had six Final Four contenders when February began is down to four.
Or is it three?
Houston’s shortcomings on offense have been exposed during a three-game losing streak to conference opponents (Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas) that reflects the caliber of competition the Cougars will face in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
That leaves just Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State as the Big 12’s top candidates for deep runs in March.
What’s more, the conference could face a numbers problem on the front end of the NCAA Tournament calculation: total bids earned.
The six aforementioned teams are locks. But UCF, with a weak non-conference schedule and several recent losses, isn’t entirely safe. And TCU, which represented the Big 12’s best bet for an eighth NCAA participant, is steadily collecting suboptimal losses (e.g., Utah and Colorado).
Both teams have NET rankings in the mid-40s — that’s fragile ground — although UCF’s ranking in the wins-above-bubble metric (28th) suggests the Knights have some cushion. (Wins-above-bubble measures a team’s performance against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would fare against the same schedule.)
Put another way: The Big 12 could collect eight bids on Selection Sunday, or just six. And the number of teams with a reasonable chance to reach the Final Four has dwindled by at least 33 percent (from six to four) due to season-ending injuries.
With two weeks left in the regular season, plus the conference tournament, the Big 12’s competitive dynamics could change three times over. Clarity won’t begin to emerge until Selection Sunday (March 15).
But on multiple fronts and for multiple reasons, the outlook for March is murkier than it was a few weeks ago.
To the power rankings …
(Records and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (25-2/12-2)
Results: beat BYU 75-68, won at Houston 73-66 NET ranking: No. 3 Comment: The evidence suggests this is Arizona’s best chance for the Final Four since the 2014 team that won 33 games. Back then, the Wildcats were No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency, No. 20 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 overall, per the Pomeroy ratings, which measure points-per-possession (adjusted for opponents). This year, they are No. 3 defensively, No. 9 offensively and No. 3 overall. (Previous: 1)
2. Iowa State (23-4/10-4)
Results: lost at BYU 79-69 NET ranking: No. 8 Comment: The Cyclones were due for a clunker after back-to-back wins over Kansas and Houston (and playing at altitude, no less). But with Texas Tech (home) and Arizona (road) looming, they better refocus as soon as possible. (Previous: 2)
3. Kansas (21-7/11-4)
Results: won at Oklahoma State 81-69, lost to Cincinnati 84-68, beat Houston 69-56 NET ranking: No. 13 Comment: Based on their wins (Tennessee, Arizona, Houston, Texas Tech), the Jayhawks should be considered a legitimate threat to win the national title. Based on their losses (Cincinnati, West Virginia, UCF), they are a clear candidate to lose in the first or second round. (Previous: 5)
4. Houston (23-5/11-4)
Results: lost to Arizona 73-66 and at Kansas 69-56 NET ranking: No. 9 Comment: “Stand around and jack 3-pointers” is not a winning strategy against quality opponents. Kelvin Sampson has three weeks to implement Plan B, or the Cougars will be home early in March. (Previous: 3)
5. Texas Tech (20-7/10-4)
Results: lost at Arizona State 72-67, beat Kansas State 100-72 NET ranking: No. 15 Comment: JT Toppin’s season-ending injury doesn’t just strip the Red Raiders of their best player. It changes how they play in a manner that would have no equivalent impact if Arizona, BYU, Iowa State, Houston or Kansas lost its best player. (Previous: 4)
6. BYU (20-7/8-6)
Results: lost at Arizona 75-68, beat Iowa State 79-69 NET ranking: No. 19 Comment: March Madness doesn’t necessarily need to be AJ and the Miracles because the Cougars have one of the nation’s best point guards (Robert Wright). But Dybantsa must produce high-level play every game if BYU hopes to be alive when April arrives. (Previous: 6)
7. UCF (19-7/8-6)
Results: beat TCU 82-71, won at Utah 73-71 NET ranking: No. 46 Comment: The forecast turned bleak with three consecutive losses, but the Knights recovered commendably. Are they in a must-sweep situation in the final three games (Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia)? It certainly couldn’t hurt. (Previous: 7)
8. TCU (17-10/7-7)
Results: lost to UCF 82-71, beat West Virginia 60-54 NET ranking: No. 47 Comment: With their NET ranking and as many Quadrant IV wins (seven) as Quadrant I and II victories combined, the Horned Frogs are as bubblicious as they come at this point in the season. (Previous: 8)
9. Cincinnati (15-12/7-7)
Results: won at Kansas 84-68 NET ranking: No. 51 Comment: Coach Wes Miller’s hot seat got considerably cooler with the Bearcats’ first road win over a top-10 team since 1990. But unless he capitalizes on the momentum, the thermodynamics will revert to their original state. (Previous: 13)
10. Baylor (14-13/4-10)
Results: lost at Kansas State 90-74, beat Arizona State 73-68 NET ranking: No. 49 Comment: Not on our Big 12 bingo card this season: Baylor being eliminated from the NCAA Tournament at-large field before February turned to March. (Previous: 10)
11. West Virginia (16-11/7-7)
Results: lost to Utah 61-56 and at TCU 60-54 NET ranking: No. 63 Comment: Just when we thought the Mountaineers might climb onto the NCAA bubble, they suffer an inexcusable home loss to Utah that seemingly extinguishes their last morsel of hope. Goodness gracious, that was bad. (Previous: 9)
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Results: beat Oklahoma State 83-69 NET ranking: No. 69 Comment: Include Colorado alongside Utah and Arizona State on the list of former Pac-12 programs that were not ready to compete (on the court) in the Big 12. (Previous: 11)
13. Arizona State (14-13/5-9)
Results: beat Texas Tech 72-67, lost at Baylor 73-68 NET ranking: No. 68 Comment: Coach Bobby Hurley’s (presumptive) home finale is March 3 against Kansas, an opponent he has beaten twice during his tenure in Tempe. (Previous: 14)
14. Oklahoma State (16-11/4-10)
Results: lost to Kansas 81-69 and at Colorado 83-69 NET ranking: No. 82 Comment: We thought second-year coach Steve Lutz might stave off a collapse. Oh, well. Maybe next year. (Previous: 12)
15. Kansas State (11-16/2-12)
Results: beat Baylor 90-74, lost at Texas Tech 100-72 NET ranking: No. 100 Comment: The Wildcats need one win in their last four games to avoid their worst Big 12 season in a quarter century. We give them a 50/50 chance. (Previous: 15)
16. Utah (10-17/2-12)
Results: won at West Virginia 61-56, lost to UCF 73-71 NET ranking: No. 117 Comment: It doesn’t require a magnifying glass to see the progress under first-year coach Alex Jensen, but the Utes remain a long, long way from the performance level that will be required at this time next year. (Previous: 16)
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