Ahead of Russia-Ukraine War Anniversary and Trump State of the Union, Zelensky Talks WWIII and When He’ll Hold Elections ...Middle East

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Ahead of Russia-Ukraine War Anniversary and Trump State of the Union, Zelensky Talks WWIII and When He’ll Hold Elections

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year of hostilities on Tuesday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky went on a media offensive, speaking to several news outlets to reiterate the need for international pressure on Moscow and deflect criticisms about his own rule.

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In various interviews, Zelensky rejected defeatist narratives of Ukraine “losing” to Russia, and he set his requirements for peace negotiations. The beleaguered Ukrainian leader also argued that it’s within the world’s interests to impose economic and military pressure on Moscow and not to make concessions, which would only empower Russian President Vladimir Putin to make similar incursions into other countries next.

    Speaking to the BBC, the Ukrainian President said that, in a way, Putin has already begun World War III, and that Ukraine’s ongoing battle is stopping its escalation. “The question is how much territory he will be able to seize and how to stop him,” Zelensky said. “I believe and have long believed that Putin has already begun this war, and we’re preventing it from becoming a broad, full-scale Third World War.”

    The anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also coincides with U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union Address on Tuesday. Asked by CNN what he’d like to hear from his U.S. counterpart, Zelensky said, “I want him to stay on our side.”

    Here’s what else Zelensky said.

    On why Ukraine ‘hasn’t lost’ the war

    Since the invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022, the casualty toll has been heavy for both sides. Estimates vary widely, but Ukraine estimates nearly 1.2 million Russian casualties in the yearslong conflict. Earlier this month, Zelensky said that Ukraine lost 55,000 military personnel on the battlefield since the war broke out, though the D.C.-based thinktank Center for Strategic and International Studies pegged the Ukrainian casualty toll between 500,000 and 600,000.

    Despite the massive losses in Russia, Trump, who has tried to broker peace negotiations, has said that Russia has the upper hand, arguing that while Kyiv’s resistance is admirable, “at some point, size will win.” 

    This winter has also been particularly brutal for Ukraine, as Russia’s bombardment has targeted  vital energy infrastructure that’s left millions without power. Locals have also been reportedly drained of morale over the seemingly endless war.

    But Zelensky, in his interviews, remained upbeat. “We are in a very difficult situation,” Zelensky told Politico earlier this month. “But Russia is not winning.” Speaking to CNN, Zelensky pointed to how Ukraine remains an independent, free nation to date, despite being battered by the war.

    “I’m not sure that somebody is winning during the war,” Zelensky told Politico. “I’m not sure because [there are] so many losses.” Only “crazy people,” he added, think about winning no matter “the price of this victory.”

    In an interview with Agence France-Presse published ahead of the anniversary, Zelensky said his rhetoric about Ukraine not losing the war was not merely about boosting morale, though he recognized that there are significant challenges, including losses in infrastructure and resources. Still, he claimed that Ukraine recently liberated 300 sq. km. of southern Ukrainian land from Moscow in a counteroffensive, though TIME cannot independently verify this.

    “We’re definitely not losing it,” Zelensky said. “The question is whether we will win. Yes, that is the question—but it’s a very costly question.”

    Holding elections requires a ceasefire

    Trump has accused Zelensky, whose term was supposed to end in May 2024, of withholding elections in Ukraine to stay in power. But Zelensky said in his interviews that he isn’t fully opposed to holding the overdue elections, though the Ukrainian public might be, claiming that 90% of Ukrainians oppose holding them during wartime. A survey from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that only 9% of Ukrainian respondents believe that elections should be held before any ceasefire or security guarantees are obtained.

    Zelensky told Politico it would be “terrible” to conduct elections while the country is under attack.

    He also told the AFP that he hasn’t decided for or against seeking another term but that it’s a matter for later. “We shift the focus from the war to elections,” he said. “I think that’s a mistake.”

    Zelensky also told Politico that elections are a “great idea” that he would be “happy” to hold “as quick as possible,” once the war stops. Last year, the Ukrainian leader told Axios that he is “ready” to leave office once the war ends. But any election, he insisted, would only be possible if the U.S. could help broker a ceasefire. “We need security for this,” Zelensky added. “We need [a] ceasefire for this.”

    On security guarantees

    Ukraine has long sought security guarantees that would make Russia’s continuing invasion—or the breaking of a future ceasefire—difficult or costly. But while it has secured some security agreements, the strongest guarantees it wants—NATO membership or promised automatic U.S. military intervention—are still elusive. 

    At a conference in Munich earlier this month, Zelensky said Ukraine sought legally water-tight security guarantees for at least 20 years from the U.S. before signing a peace deal. 

    Zelensky says the current security guarantees allies offer aren’t clear enough. “I want very specific answers [on] what partners will be ready to do if Putin will come again,” he tells CNN.

    In his interviews, Zelensky said Congress in the U.S. should step in and ratify such agreements, in order to outlast the Trump Administration’s apparent hesitance. “Presidents change, but institutions stay,” he told the BBC.

    A concession he won’t make

    A main sticking point in the ongoing peace negotiations is control of Donbas, the eastern Ukrainian region encompassing the two coal-rich areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine still controls some 10% of the region, and Russia has called for Kyiv to withdraw the Ukrainian army from the Donetsk region; Ukraine opposes this and proposes freezing the situation along the contact line. Washington, meanwhile, proposed a free economic zone in parts of the region Kyiv controls, though the plan has not earned support from either Russia or Ukraine.

    Zelensky is adamant that Ukraine cannot make such concessions, even when Washington and Moscow have pressured Kyiv to get to the negotiating table and suggested it may be the only way to end the war.

    Zelensky told Politico that it would be “a big mistake to allow [an] aggressor to take something.” He also told the BBC that the issue goes beyond land: “I see it as abandoning, weakening our positions, abandoning hundreds of thousands of our people who live there. That is how I see it. And I am sure that this withdrawal would divide our society.”

    A poll conducted in January by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that 52% of Ukrainians found it unacceptable to transfer the entire Donbas to Russian control in exchange for security guarantees.

    “Russia wants [us] just to withdraw our army,” Zelensky told CNN. “We can’t be such, sorry, foolish guys. We are not children. We went through this war, during all these years, and so we just, we can’t give them the country on [a] plate.”

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