People often ask what I think the housing market will do. Without a crystal ball, it’s hard to know. What I can tell you about is recent trends, which often give a glimpse of where the market is going.
The value of knowing the trends, especially if you plan to sell your house, is that hard facts can help you cut through the emotion that often clouds decision making. I’m a sentimentalist, so I know how hard it can be to separate how you feel about a property from its market value. I have furniture from my mother that was in our home when I was five years old—I wouldn’t part with it for any price.
Here’s the problem: If you equate all your positive memories with the value of the house, it puts you into a bad analysis position. You need to wash emotions out of the equation. If you’re struggling to do so, ask your REALTOR for support. They can help you make data-based decisions about pricing and other matters.
Your REALTOR will assess your property based on its condition, location, view, and other amenities to help you make choices that will ultimately serve your goal of selling your house. REALTORs can also dig into the data to see exactly how the averages were created. Sometimes outliers can skew the numbers, so it’s important to choose a REALTOR who really understands the market.
The information below reflects Mendocino County’s 101 corridor, including Hopland, Talmage, Ukiah, Calpella, Redwood Valley, Willits—all the way up through Laytonville and Branscomb. It includes properties under $1.5 million (so big ranch properties aren’t included, but most single-family homes are) for the period September 2024 to November 2025, the latest data available when I wrote this.
As a statistics refresher, the mean is the average of a set of values calculated by dividing the sum of all values by the number of values. The median is the middle value in a data set when the numbers are arranged from smallest to largest. The mode is the value that appears most frequently in a data set.
Sales, pending sales and listings
The market is similar to this time last year. There’s always a seasonal dip in home sales in winter. For the quarter ending in November 2025, listings were up about 9 percent, sales were up about 16 percent, and pending sales were up about 17 percent.
Average price per square foot and median price
The price per square foot is a great way to compare what’s for sale, but it changes frequently, so you’ll want the latest figures. As long as you’re looking at properties in a similar location with similar attributes, price per square foot is a good indicator of value. In July, the average price per square foot was $336. In September it was $293, and in October it jumped to $327. So, in our area, I’d say you’re safe to assume a price per square foot is around $300. REALTORs often multiply the region’s average price per square foot by a property’s square footage to get a rough sale price. The median home price in fall was a little lower than the year before, dropping from $495,000 to $479,000.
Average days on the market
Average days on the market indicates how robust the market is. Properties are typically on the market longer during fall and winter. Properties are starting to move more quickly now, indicating sellers may be adjusting to market realities and lowering their prices. If your house is priced right, that is, within 5-10% of the final sales price, it should sell relatively quickly—in line with the average days on the market.
Months of inventory based on closed sales
Finally, we can look at how many months of inventory we have based on closed sales, which is calculated by dividing the number of properties on the market by the number of sales in that month. Six months of inventory is the breaking point between a buyer’s and seller’s market. Longer than six months makes it a buyer’s market, and less makes it a seller’s market. Late last year, we had about five months of inventory, a slight slowdown from the months before.
All in all, there’s no timing the market. You should buy when you need to buy and sell when you need to sell.
If you have questions about property management or real estate, please contact me at [email protected] or call (707) 462-4000. If you have an idea for a future column, share it with me, and if I use it, I’ll send you a $25 gift certificate to Schat’s Bakery.
Dick Selzer is a real estate broker who has been in the business for more than 45 years. The opinions expressed here are his and do not necessarily represent his affiliated organizations.
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