Scotland travel to Cardiff looking to back up their stellar Calcutta Cup victory last Saturday, while Wales will be aiming to restore some pride after a string of deflating defeats. Find out which way the data suggests the game could go with our Wales vs Scotland prediction.
Welsh rugby has rarely, if ever, been at as low an ebb as it finds itself in this year’s Six Nations.
Wales lost just three of their first 502 Championship games by over 40 points (including Home and Five Nations). They’ve since lost each of their last three by such margins.
For many years, Wales had a fantastic record against Scotland, winning 13 of 15 Six Nations meetings between 2008 and 2022 (L2). Since then, though, they’ve lost three in a row, and could make it four consecutive defeats for the first time since the 1920s.
The silver lining is that the last two contests have been close. Their most recent meeting in Cardiff was only decided by a single point (26-27 in 2024), and Wales almost came back from a 20-0 deficit at half-time.
Gregor Townsend’s side may be riding the crest of a wave following a monumental bonus-point win over old rivals England last week, but have struggled to back up big victories in recent years. In fact, the last time they won consecutive Six Nations games in the same campaign was in 2023, when they won their opening two, against England and Wales. That was also the only time they’ve followed up a Calcutta Cup victory with another win in the Six Nations era.
This match will see Steve Tandy face off against Scotland for the first time, the side he spent over five years working with as defence coach. Often billed as a key figure in Scotland’s resurgence over that time, can he get one over on his old employers?
Where the Game Will Be Won
The contrast between Scotland’s opening two performances could hardly have been more pronounced. Against Italy in Round 1, they dominated possession (61%) but struggled to turn that into clear try-scoring opportunities. A week later against England, that figure dropped to 48%, yet their attacking output improved dramatically.
After failing to register a single line break against the Azzurri, they carved out 10 against England, their first double-digit return in the Six Nations since beating Wales in 2023.
They gained twice as many metres per carry against England (3.8) as they did against Italy (1.9), and more than doubled their rate of points scored per attacking 22 entry (1.5 to 3.4).
Wales, by contrast, showed no such return to form. The same defensive issues exposed against England in Round 1 were just as glaring against France. Wales have the Championship’s worst tackle success rate (83.9%), something that will be a massive source of frustration for Steve Tandy.
As he’s shown before, though, he knows how to organise a defence. Facing a Scotland side he knows well — and one with the Championship’s lowest tackle evasion rate (18%) — could provide a useful opportunity for him to hit the reset button.
One area where Wales could wrestle some superiority is the scrum, with Scotland having the Championship’s lowest success rate on their own put-ins (75%) and conceding more scrum penalties than any other nation (8).
Wales have conceded the most penalties overall though (25), so if the game is in the balance – and discipline is an issue – a lot could come down to the boot of the place-kickers.
That’s one area where Scotland have a clear advantage, boasting the Championship’s best success rate (88%, 7/8), while Wales have the worst (67%, 2/3).
Kicking in play could prove crucial too. Scotland have the best retention rate (26%), twice as high as Wales, who have the lowest (13%), and should they get the field position to go alongside their efficiency from last week, it could well be another difficult outing for Wales.
Wales vs Scotland Fantasy Picks
As well as Scotland performed collectively against England, Finn Russell and Huw Jones were perhaps the two standout players for Townsend’s side. They could well prove too much for Wales to handle here.
Russell slotted 5/5 place-kicks and evaded five of the six tackle attempts on him, while Jones scored two tries to make him Scotland’s leading try scorer in the Men’s Six Nations (18). He was also one of three players to gain 100+ metres over the weekend (113).
The other two to do so were James Lowe (138) and Wales’ Louis Rees-Zammit (113), who has slotted back in seamlessly after his stateside sabbatical. Despite Wales’ woes, he leads the Championship for both metres gained (192) and defenders beaten (11).
He is yet to score a try this year, however, though his only previous brace in the Six Nations came against Scotland back in 2021. If Wales are to keep this contest competitive, much may depend on him ending that drought.
Scotland’s Kyle Steyn is the only other player to have reached double digits (10) for defenders beaten, while Welshman Aaron Wainwright has beaten the most of any forward (7).
Wales vs Scotland Prediction
As ever, the Opta supercomputer foresees a tough afternoon for Wales. Scotland are overwhelming favourites at 87.5%, with Wales given just a 12.3% chance of finally claiming a win.
The predicted scoreline of 36-13 in favour of Scotland would represent their biggest ever win against Wales in Cardiff, with the current record being a 34-18 victory at Cardiff Arms Park in the 1982 Five Nations.
Wales vs Scotland Lineups
Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit; 14 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams; 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Tomos Williams; 1 Rhys Carre, 2 Dewi Lake (c), 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 5 Ben Carter, 6 Taine Plumtree, 7 Alex Mann, 8 Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 James Botham, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Blair Murray.
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (c), 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White; 1 Nathan McBeth, 2 Dave Cherry, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Max Williamson, 5 Scott Cummings, 6 Gregor Brown, 7 Rory Darge, 8 Matt Fagerson.
Replacements:16 George Turner, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Grant Gilchrist, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Darcy Graham
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Wales vs Scotland Prediction: Six Nations 2026 Preview Opta Analyst.
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