The Saturday slate in college basketball this upcoming weekend is an absolute doozy, capable of directly shaping the NCAA Tournament field even though Selection Sunday is still weeks away.
At 3 p.m. ET on ABC, No. 2 Houston hosts No. 4 Arizona in a Big 12 heavyweight fight. At 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, No. 1 Michigan plays No. 3 Duke in the nation’s capital.
Funny enough, that foursome represents the top of Joey Bracket’s current March Madness bracket projection. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi revealed Thursday afternoon that, in order, the top 4 projected seeds heading into the weekend are Michigan, Duke, Arizona, and Houston.
Mock 1-seeds (in order): Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) February 19, 2026Lunardi listed Iowa State as the top 2-seed in his bracket. The Cyclones beat Houston 70-67 this past Monday. If Arizona knocks off Houston on the road, it would stand to reason the Cyclones might move up onto the 1-seed line.
At Kalshi, Iowa State to make the tournament as a 1-seed is trading at 25 cents per share. In the aftermath of the Cyclones’ win, Houston’s 1-seed future was trading for as low as 37 cents per share.
Prediction Markets Men's March Madness 1 Seed? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Michigan 94.0% Duke 89.0% Arizona 88.0% Houston 61.0% UConn 30.0% Iowa St. 26.0% Florida 8.0% Nebraska 5.0% Gonzaga 4.0% Illinois 3.0% PredictThough Houston hasn’t taken the court since, it has rebounded well in the market.
Florida remains the SEC team with the best perceived shot at earning a 1-seed, though that shot is a long one. Kalshi gives the defending champs an 8% chance to climb onto the top line of the bracket.
The Gators head to Oxford on Saturday to face Ole Miss. That game tips at noon ET on ESPN, so Florida fans will have time to catch the fireworks later in the day.
Joe Lunardi shares 1-seed projections ahead of monumental Saturday Saturday Down South.
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