Yesterday, Keir Starmer was forced into yet another embarrassing U-turn by his backbenchers. Parliament called for the release of documents relating to the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador following more revelations about his relationship with the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
This is not what the Government wanted – Starmer insisted he would not publish anything that could damage national security or diplomatic relations. But MPs did not trust that categorisation would not be abused to prevent uncomfortable truths coming to light. Instead the independent Intelligence & Security Committee (ISC) will decide what is publishable.
Credited with tipping the balance to force this change of stance was the former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, who, in a stateswomanlike intervention, pointed out that Labour had made the same case for the ISC in opposition when forcing the then Tory government to publish documents.
Now that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has been blocked from returning to Parliament, Rayner is seen by many as the centre-left’s only practical hope of stopping a [Health Secretary] Wes Streeting succession.
Speaking to Labour insiders and MPs on the left and centre-left, there are reservations galore about Rayner. “The HMRC thing” looms large. She has still not been given a clean bill of health by the tax inspector following the stamp duty confusion that saw her resign as deputy prime minister.
Her subsequent acceptance of responsibility, dignified resignation and the difficult personal circumstances that emerged all elicited sympathy. And while a return to frontline politics was always seen as likely, is now too soon – especially for the top job?
And then there is the lack of enthusiasm. Speak to anyone on the left or centre-left and the party and they’d take Rayner over Streeting. But you’ll also get plenty of “buts”: “but I’d like Clive Lewis”, or “but I still hope [Energy Secretary] Ed Miliband could be persuaded”, or “but don’t rule out Louise Haigh”. There is a widely felt sense of “I don’t trust Angela”.
Labour MPs reflect the British public. The one popular Labour politician in opinion polls is Burnham. The rest are in negative territory, Streeting (-11), Rayner (-24), Starmer -37) and Chancellor Rachel Reeves (-40), according to polling for The i Paper.
The problem Rayner will face is a Parliamentary Labour Party which, as we’ve learned, was in part shaped by Mandelson. A particular sect of the Labour-right has always treated Rayner with suspicion (she nominated Burnham to be leader in 2015 and served in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet from 2016 to 2020).
Several MPs tell of rumours of “a dossier” that the right has against her. Others warn that she has “baggage” – i.e. more personal skeletons to emerge (though you hear much the same about Streeting as well).
But Rayner, like another famous former deputy prime minister, John Prescott, has a kind of Teflon coating because they are who they are. There’s no pretence. After the stilted pomposity of Starmer, it might be a welcome change of tone.
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A more optimistic take was put to me that in an era of big personalities – Reform UK leader Nigel Farage on the right, Greens leader Zack Polanski on the left – Rayner’s more combative, shoot-from-the-hip style might be just what Labour needs to cut through and take on their opponents.
But Rayner also arouses suspicion from left-wing MPs, too. She went from a seeming Corbynista to a loyal deputy to Starmer. In her deputy leadership campaign, she also received donations from many of the same people who funded Starmer’s leadership campaign. She, too, like Starmer and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, has sailed close to the Blue Labour creed at times.
Nevertheless, left-wing MPs know they cannot recreate the magic of 2015, when Corbyn went from outsider to Labour leader. Candidates for the leadership now require nearly 80 nominations. Corbyn scraped on with 35 eleven years ago. And so the left must compromise – and whatever their reservations about Rayner, they are unanimous in not wanting Streeting.
While there might be reservations and caveats, Rayner’s performance in the Commons on Wednesday has cemented her position as the frontrunner from the centre-left. Meanwhile, Streeting’s perceived closeness to Mandelson has made some on the right of the party look to others.
The only source of unanimity in the Labour Party now is that Starmer’s time is up. Labour has one chance to pick a new prime minister – and then they must unite and deliver a more competent government that delivers the change Labour promised in 2024, while avoiding the scandals, chaos and U-turns that have characterised Starmer’s disastrous 18 months.
The stars seem to be aligning for Rayner as the most likely winner of Labour’s next leadership contest and to become Labour’s first woman prime minister.
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