Let me say for the umpteenth time, there is no California exodus.
The Golden State’s popularity among its own residents is among the nation’s highest, as measured by the small share of residents who depart for other parts of the country.
Its stagnant population challenge is really about the stunningly few Americans who relocate to California.
Let my trusty spreadsheet explain, using the just-released Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration stats for 2024 that track relocation patterns among the population ages 1 year and older. Comparing that year with 2021-23 averages adds perspective.
These fresh demographic figures show California lost 661,000 residents to other states in 2024, the most exits in the nation. By the way, those departures are 16% below the 2021-23 pace.
But before you shout “exodus,” note that Florida was No. 2 at 506,000, followed by Texas at 483,500.
There’s a theme here. These economic rivals are also the nation’s most populous states – California with 39 million, Texas with 31 million and Florida with 23 million.
In a nation where 7 million people got a new home state in 2024, it’s not totally unexpected that big states have more interstate moves. By the way, moving to another state is down 9% vs. 2021-23.
So ponder these exits as a share of all residents. Consider this departure rate as the odds that you knew someone who left for another state.
Note that 2.1% of Americans changed states in 2024. That same year, 1.7% of Californians left for other parts of the U.S. That below-average departure rate is also down from California’s 2% departure rate in 2021-23.
California is among the states with the most loyal residents. For 2024, only Michigan (1.3%), Ohio (1.5%), and Texas (1.6%) had smaller departure rates.
Oh, Florida’s exit rate was 2.2% of its population, ranking No. 30.
Who moves?
Californians don’t like to move.
If you’re lucky enough to be able to afford a good spot in the Golden State, why leave, even to go crosstown?
Think about Californians’ stability this way.
In 2024, 90% of Californians didn’t move. That’s the eighth-highest “stay-put” rate in the nation. It’s also above the national 88% share.
The states where folks were most likely to stay put were New Jersey and New York at 91%, and West Virginia at 90%.
Curiously, stability isn’t as popular with California’s economic rivals. Just 86% of Texans didn’t move, the seventh-lowest stay-put rate among states. Florida’s rate was 87%, 11th lowest.
Where were they most likely to relocate? The District of Columbia had just 80% of residents staying put. Next were Alaska (85%) and Colorado (86%).
The big problem
What few people talk about is that California stinks at attracting new residents from other states.
In 2024, California added 407,000 residents through interstate moves. That was 8% below the 2021-23 pace.
Of course, only Florida (574,000) and Texas (556,000) had more arrivals in 2024. However, once again, look at these inbound relocations as a share of the overall population.
You know, what are the odds that your new neighbor or co-worker is from another state?
Newly minted Californians were just 1% of all residents in 2024. That’s the nation’s dead-last attraction rate.
Yes, the worst. And it was down from 1.2% in 2021-23.
Why so few?
It’s not the weather. Maybe it’s politics? Or the culture? Or congested living in its urban cores?
And who can afford the lifestyle, even if many California employers offer generous compensation?
As for California’s main rivals, Texas had an arrival rate of 1.8%, the eighth-worst. Florida’s 2.5% rate was the 22nd highest.
The ‘net’ result
Counting the ins and outs of migration patterns is what sets this Census report apart from other data on interstate relocations.
Most migration stats – such as California’s demographic data or reports from moving companies – tally “net” migration. That’s subtracting a state’s exits from its arrivals.
This “net” number might mislead folks into thinking California is bleeding residents.
You see, California had a net outflow of 254,000 in 2024.
While that’s 25% smaller than the 2021-23 pace, it’s also easily the largest negative migration flow in the nation. Remember, we’re talking the state’s tiny inbound moves minus its modest outbound relocations.
Conversely, Texas led the nation with net inflows of 72,680, followed by Florida with 67,630.
I’m not saying net migration is unimportant. It’s a major driver of overall population changes. Births, deaths and changes in foreign migration also contribute to overall population patterns.
Think about population growth by this Census math, tracking people 1 year and older. California added 52,500 in 2024, the 14th-largest increase. The top gains were Texas at 392,000 and Florida at 367,000.
But as a share of the overall population, this growth is slim in California: just 0.1%, or the fifth-smallest increase.
Texas had 1.3% growth, the 11th fastest. Florida was up 1.6%, No. 3.
Swings in population totals are more than bragging rights. They can alter everything from economic opportunities to housing costs to traffic patterns to government needs to politics.
If California truly wants to grow – but I think most residents seem fine with the status quo – forget the “exodus” chatter.
Someone should start talking about improving the state’s horrible inability to attract fellow Americans.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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