Broncos-Patriots scouting report: How will Sean Payton, Jarrett Stidham handle tricky New England defense? ...Middle East

Patriots (16-3) at Broncos (15-3)

When: 1 p.m. Sunday

Where: Empower Field at Mile High

TV: KCNC-4

Radio: 850 AM, 94.1 FM

Broncos-Patriots series: There’s some great, not-so-ancient playoff history here, between two franchises that will forever be tied to the names Manning and Brady. The last time Denver and New England faced off in the playoffs was the AFC title game after the 2015 season, as a fading Peyton Manning mustered just enough — 176 yards and two touchdowns — to put the Patriots away 20-18. Broncos cornerback Bradley Roby picked off a 2-point conversion try from Tom Brady to Julian Edelman to seal the win. Denver’s also 27-23 in all-time regular-season matchups against the Patriots.

In the spotlight: Patriots defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr ‘keeps the dial spinning’

Two weeks ago, after New England made Pro Bowler Justin Herbert look like a Pop Warner flameout in a 16-3 win over Los Angeles, Chargers players came up to linebacker Robert Spillane and told him they had “no clue” what coverage the Patriots were in all game. At least, by Spillane’s own admission.

Now, the Chargers fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman a couple of days later, so that might’ve had something to do with it. But this is the evident genius of New England defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr.

“He keeps the dial spinning,” Spillane said after New England’s wild-card win. “He keeps offenses guessing. All year, he’s been doing that.

“For him just to be able to build those packages throughout the week, our back-end players to know how to disguise the different defenses, really keeps quarterbacks guessing,” the linebacker continued a few words later.

Enter Jarrett Stidham, a quarterback with four career NFL starts who has Patriots defenders now guessing as to what exactly he’s capable of.

“Nothing,” said New England defensive tackle Milton Williams in the Patriots’ locker room this week, when asked what he knew about Stidham. “Nothing. I ain’t gonna lie, nothing. We’re gonna watch the tape on him and figure out what he like to do, but, they didn’t like him over Bo, so.”

Shrug.

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Call it a slight by Williams, perhaps. But call it like it is: there was a reason Nix won the starting job over Stidham in 2024, and a reason that Stidham hasn’t seen the field until Nix’s crushing ankle fracture in last weekend’s win over Buffalo. Sunday will bring Stidham into one of the most unique situations in recent NFL memory — starting an AFC title game without throwing a pass.

On top of it, he and Sean Payton will have to solve Kuhr’s spinning dial, which has flummoxed some of the NFL’s best all season. It began in Wednesday night’s offensive staff meeting, with Payton noting the importance of uncovering whether New England is in man coverage or zone.

“This is a team that does a good job with that,” Payton said Wednesday. “They keep the top on the coverage, they’ve got real good corners and safeties, and then — extremely talented nickel. So how do you determine it? There’s different ways you try to create movement, maybe, but that’ll be a big study tonight.”

New England’s defense has surrendered over 200 passing yards to only one quarterback in any single game since early November: the Texans’ C.J. Stroud in the AFC divisional round last weekend. The Patriots also happened to pick off Stroud four — four — times in the first half alone in a 28-16 win. Their personnel is strong at every level, with a Pro Bowl outside corner in Christian Gonzalez (a 52.5% catch rate allowed this year, according to Next Gen Stats) and that extremely talented nickel in Marcus Jones.

But the unit is greater than the sum of its parts, mainly thanks to Kuhr. He’s turned himself into a rising star amid tragic circumstances in New England, after defensive coordinator Terrell Williams stepped away from the team in late September amid a prostate-cancer diagnosis. The Patriots pressured opposing quarterbacks at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL despite blitzing at the 19th-highest rate in 2025, and have thrown a bunch of exotic looks at their playoff opponents.

In even worse news for Denver, New England won’t exactly be surprised by Stidham on Sunday. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had the 29-year-old backup for the first three years of his career in New England, and then traded for him in Las Vegas in 2022.

“Certainly, Josh knows him,” Payton said. “I don’t think it’s like, ‘We’ve never seen who this person (is).’

“It’s what we do with him that’s going to be most important.”

Payton’s personnel-shifting tendencies — infuriating to some sections of this Broncos fanbase — might actually be Denver’s best shot against New England Sunday. Let the chaos ensue.

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run: Well, there’s no J.K. Dobbins after all, as the Broncos’ RB1’s valiant comeback attempt from a November Lisfranc injury fell just short this week. And Payton has little to no trust in his current backfield without Dobbins. RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for 10 total carries against a Buffalo unit that entered the wild-card weekend as one of the worst run defenses in the league. New England has some monster interior stoppers in defensive tackles Williams and Christian Barmore. Edge: Patriots

When Broncos pass: Well, uh. Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a regular-season pass in two seasons. Across four career NFL starts, he has averaged 270 passing yards a game with an 89.7 passer rating, which feels like a decent baseline to start. New England’s defense, however, has thrown a variety of “Saw”-style defensive traps at opposing quarterbacks for months. Denver’s got its full complement of receivers back, which helps, but without demonstrated proof, it’s hard to swing this in the Broncos’ favor. Edge: Patriots

When Patriots run: Remember when TreVeyon Henderson was all the rage in Denver in April, before the Broncos decided to stand pat in the first round? Broncos fans will now see what it’s like to watch him work at Empower Field. The rookie first-rounder has struggled in the playoffs, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry, but came on strong in the last half of the regular season. Veteran Rhamondre Stevenson offers a nice complement, and quarterback Drake Maye is one of the most adept scramblers in the league. Denver will need a better effort here than it showed against the Bills and James Cook last week. Edge: Even

When Patriots pass: Maye has risen to the top of a stacked 2024 QB draft class, and might well walk away with the league MVP after just his second season in the league. The numbers are ridiculous: 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, eight picks, a 72% completion rating. New England has surrounded him with playmakers, from WR1 Stefon Diggs to tight end Hunter Henry. Maye’s been somewhat held in check this postseason, but “held in check” has meant four passing touchdowns against two picks. Slight edge: Patriots

Special teams: One of Denver’s biggest early-season weaknesses has now rounded into one of its biggest strengths. New England punter Bryce Baringer and rookie kicker Andres Borregales both ranked right around league average in general punting and kicking efficiency, and returner Marcus Jones was named a second-team All-Pro after finishing fourth in the NFL in punt-return yardage. Denver’s slightly better in most areas, though. Slight edge: Broncos

Coaching: Sean Payton knows quite well that no coach has ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams. He’ll need to put on a masterclass on Sunday to pull this one off, and he’s very well capable of it. Denver needs a better effort from defensive coordinator Vance Joseph in situational work, but the Broncos have been coached up well enough to flip from turnover-averse to ball-hawks. Vrabel has done masterful work in his first year in New England and is a Coach of the Year candidate, but Payton has the experience edge here. Slight edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

By the numbers

11: The number of quarterbacks in NFL history who have started a road AFC championship at 23 years old or younger, now including Drake Maye.

103.1: Maye’s quarterback rating when under pressure in 2025, the best in the NFL.

8: The number of times Maye fumbled during the regular season, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL.

16: The number of targets Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez received in coverage against the Houston Texans last week, the most of any defensive player in any single game this season, according to Next Gen Stats.

9: The number of quarterback pressures Patriots tackle Will Campbell has allowed in his last two games, according to Pro Football Focus.

12: The number of quarterback pressures Broncos outside linebacker Nik Bonitto has combined for in his last two games.

X-factors

Broncos: RB RJ Harvey. Specifically, the “RB” part. Harvey is more than a proven commodity at this point as an open-field receiver, and the Broncos wouldn’t have won against Buffalo without his contributions. But somebody needs to help Stidham control the ground and control pace against New England, and Payton needs to feel comfortable handing Harvey 15 carries on Sunday.

Patriots: DT Milton Williams. The former Philadelphia Eagle’s $104 million deal with New England in free agency has been worth every penny, as Williams has set the tone for the Patriots against the run in the 14 total games he’s been healthy this season. If Denver center Luke Wattenberg — playing his first game since landing on injured reserve Week 16 with a shoulder injury — can’t hold his own, the Broncos will have a tough time establishing offensive rhythm.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos reporter: Patriots 17, Broncos 16

It would be a tremendous story if Denver punches a ticket to Santa Clara with Jarrett Stidham at the helm. It’s not impossible, either. The Broncos are confident, even without quarterback Bo Nix. They don’t just think ‘Stiddy’ will play well, they will be really surprised if he doesn’t. They’ve got a deep roster, a talented defense and an offensive line that can control a game. New England has that, too, plus an MVP candidate at quarterback in Drake Maye.

Luca Evans, Broncos reporter: Patriots 17, Broncos 10

Going through the scouting report on New England truly reminds one how stacked the Patriots are as a group, and how many holes these Broncos have without Bo Nix’s late-game magic to help tie things up. Toss out all the light-schedule talk around the Pats; they’ve dispatched Los Angeles and Houston in timely fashion in these playoffs. This is just a brutal draw for Jarrett Stidham against his former team, and the magic runs out here.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 22, Patriots 20

Everything about Sunday suggests the Broncos will lose without Bo Nix. They are the largest home underdog in a conference championship game since the league merger. Jarrett Stidham hasn’t played in a postseason game since he led Auburn to a win over Purdue in the 2018 Music City Bowl. But Sean Payton is the best version of himself in these spots, and the Broncos defense will make Drake Maye miserable enough to pull off the upset.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 23, Patriots 20

We may not know what we’re going to get from Jarrett Stidham, but we know what we’re going to get from Drake Maye — and from this Broncos pass rush. The Pats’ offense line allowed a bottom-10-in-the-NFL sack rate during the regular season, and Maye sports a 39.60 passer rating when “pressured” this postseason. The defense will have to carry the load one more time. With feeling. Will Lutz with the winner late. Same as it ever was.

Nate Peterson, sports editor: Broncos 21, Patriots 17

The Patriots have gotten here by demolishing two lousy offensive lines to rattle Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud, but that won’t be the case Sunday. The Broncos’ O-line stands up for ‘Stiddy’ and the return of J.K. Dobbins provides enough of a lift in the run game to pull off the unthinkable in front of a frothing home crowd. Sean Payton relishes nothing more than being counted out, and he told the world to “watch out” on Saturday after getting the crushing news about Bo Nix. Denver somehow, some way, gets it done.

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