As Donald Trump causes global alarm with his plans to buy, annex or invade Greenland, the Kremlin views the crisis as an unexpected gift.
Of course, Greenland matters to the Russians on a strategic level, at least to some degree. The GIUK Gap – Greenland, Iceland, UK – is a naval choke point between the Norwegian and North Seas and the open Atlantic Ocean.
However, there is no evidence that they view an American takeover with any alarm. Nato assets are already present, and even under existing treaty, if the Americans or Europeans wanted to base more troops, planes and ships there, they could.
On Tuesday, Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov became the latest Russian official to have some fun with Trump’s project with the mischievous announcement that Moscow has no plans to conclude a mutual defence treaty with Greenland.
The Russians are sitting back and enjoying the spectacle of a Nato emergency that seems to validate so many of Moscow’s talking points.
First, that for all its talk of an “international rules-based order”, the West can be as nakedly imperialistic as anyone else when it wants to be.
Lavrov referred to Denmark’s control of Greenland as the result of “colonial conquest”. He said: “The fact that its residents are now accustomed to living there and feel comfortable is another matter. But the problem of former colonies is becoming an increasingly serious matter.”
Already, in the Global South, Moscow is posturing as the defender of local interests against a new kind of Western imperialism expressed through unfair trade deals, sanctions and economic exploitation. The line that Greenland is an example of two Western countries squabbling over the resources of a colonised territory may be inaccurate, but it is already being deployed in Russian propaganda.
Second, that the Western alliance was already in crisis, held together by little more than shared opposition to Russia. “Nato is a product of a specific time, and that stage has ended,” concluded Fyodor Lukyanov, one of the highest-profile Russian foreign affairs experts.
Some commentators have already, tongue in cheek, suggested that Europe might want to petition Moscow for security guarantees again the USA.
More seriously, given the Europeans are now Ukraine’s main funders, but also the loudest critics of Trump’s efforts to browbeat Ukraine into accepting an unfair peace, there is much satisfaction that they appear in crisis.
“Europe is at a total loss and, to be honest, it’s a pleasure to watch this,” was the line from the tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets.
“Is ‘daddy’ giving you a spanking?” asked a social media commentator, invoking the cringeworthy flattery of Nato chief Mark Rutte, who approvingly once said of Trump that “daddy has to sometimes use strong language” to excuse one of the President’s rants.
Finally, that this is all bad news for Ukraine. The Russian press is portraying a rattled Volodymyr Zelensky as trying to appease both sides, unwilling to alienate either, while desperately pleading that they do not lose sight of his country’s plight, as drone and missile strikes again leave half of Kyiv without light or heat in -10C temperatures.
Although Trump’s dramatic decision to double-down on his claims to Greenland seem to have taken the Kremlin by surprise as much as anyone else, last year Putin had to encourage them, crafting a historical justification for American annexation in some ways reminiscent of his rationalisation of the invasion of Ukraine.
Since then, Moscow’s propaganda has leant more on naked flattery. Presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov slyly egged the White House on by noting that “there are international experts who believe that by resolving the issue of Greenland’s annexation, Trump will undoubtedly make history”.
Likewise, government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta wrote that “if Trump annexes Greenland by 4 July 2026, when America celebrates the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, he will go down in history as a figure who asserted the greatness of the United States”.
The Russians ultimately seem to believe that Trump’s bark is worse than his bite and he will hold back from seizing Greenland by force.
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In a way, this is even better for them. As one Russian think-tanker told The I Paper: “If the marines went in and took Greenland, for the next week, the Europeans would think the end of the world had come, but then they’d get used to it, and they’d adapt to being Trump’s vassals.”
Even more useful for Moscow is “a long-running dispute that poisons transatlantic relations” and leaves everyone feeling betrayed.
On current showing, that seems entirely likely. European leaders had hoped that this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos would be a chance to reunite around bringing more pressure on Russia over Ukraine. Yet to their great satisfaction, everything is now about Greenland.
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