Lukewarm Stove: Bellinger Decision Soon, Now the Dodgers Want Peralta, Skubal Trade Talks Back, More ...Middle East

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Lukewarm Stove: Bellinger Decision Soon, Now the Dodgers Want Peralta, Skubal Trade Talks Back, More

MLB RUMORS — In a morning article at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal makes a pretty good point: the impending/expected lockout following the 2026 season has not really done much to slow free agent spending this winter. That’s a good thing, not only for the players who are making money (which, yeah, whatever), but also for those of us looking for ANY sign of optimism that games won’t be missed in 2027.

HOWEVER, it’s not all pointing that way.

    Rosenthal also interviewed one anonymous executive who “recently wondered aloud if the threat of a lockout was hindering trade talks on players with two years of club control. The exec pointed out that it was difficult to value such players when a lockout might turn those two years of control into less than two, or even one. The same might be true of those players at the deadline.”

    In a way, it mirrors the difficulty we always see in trading guys with player options at the deadline. Agreeing on value for an indeterminate amount of time is really, really tough.

    And because of that, Rosenthal even suggests that some loudly-rumored two-year players “might not” be dealt at all: Brendan Donovan, McKenzie Gore, Nick Lodolo.

    The one that stands out to me, a Cubs fan, is Brendan Donovan, as he is the obviously-available alternative to both Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner, and has been connected to all of the teams that have shown interest in the Cubs’ infielders. Just something to keep in mind.

    Cody Bellinger

    There’s been a lot of buzz about Cody Bellinger lately, with Jim Bowden dropping the juiciest one on X earlier this morning: “Cody Bellinger is mulling over multiple offers from multiple teams and is expected to make a decision shortly.”

    We know the Yankees (five years $155-$160M) are one of those teams, but according to Bob Nightengale, you can add the Mets, who remain “in the market for Bellinger,” and the Blue Jays, who “wanted Tucker, too, and had Bichette as a backup plan.”

    By contrast, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that the Jays “haven’t appeared particularly interested” in Cody Bellinger this offseason, but I actually have to agree with Nightengale on this one – after not signing Tucker and Bichette, and considering their uber-aggresiveness of late, I don’t see how you could rule them out.

    Wrapping this up, Joel Sherman has some additional details on Bellinger’s most likely landing spot, the Yankees, and how the story there hasn’t changed much from earlier this week: “The Yankees have offered Bellinger a five-year, $160 million pact with two opt-outs. He wants a longer deal, probably at least seven years.”

    Frankly, I have a hard time faulting the Yankees for drawing the line there. A five-year deal at a premium $32M AAV with not one, but two opt-outs is a fair deal for Bellinger. I’m sure he’s looking at the deals that some older, less positionally versatile players (like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso) signed this offseason, wondering why he can’t top that significantly. But maybe, like chicks, front offices dig the longball?

    Jokes aside, I wouldn’t go much higher than that for Bellinger in just dollars, but when you throw in the potential value of the opt-outs (assuming they’re not after years 3 and 4 or something), it’s hard to say it’s not a much better deal. My guess is he winds up returning to the Yanks. We’ll see soon, it seems.

    © Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

    Dodgers Want Freddy Peralta

    Sure, why not?

    According to Katie Woo (The Athletic), the Los Angeles Dodgers, who’ve already signed the top positional player, Kyle Tucker, and closer, Edwin Diaz, are not done yet. And they have their sights set high for their already loaded (albeit often injured) starting rotation:

    The Dodgers remain interested in Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta, a two-time All-Star approaching his final season before free agency. Peralta is one of the top starters on the trade market after logging a career-best 2.70 ERA over 33 starts for the National League Central champions.

    Cool.

    Remember, the Dodgers rotation already features Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, and 26-year-old Emmet Sheean. They also have former Cubs prospect (and current top-100 prospect) Jackson Ferris likely starting the year out at Triple-A, among other depth options.

    At the same time, Freddy Peralta offers one thing that none of those pitchers can: he makes his starts.

    Only four pitchers in baseball have made more than Peralta’s 95 starts over the last three seasons, and that’s Logan Webb (100), Miles Mikolas (98), Dylan Cease (98), and Yusei Kikuchi (97). So adding Peralta would immediately help them navigate the season without forcing their other big starters to over-throw … before October.

    Furthermore, while Roki Sasaki has all the talent and upside in the world, he didn’t quite live up to the hype last season.

    At the same time, if the Dodgers did land Peralta, they’d have literally five aces plus Sasaki. It’s just absurdity.

    © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

    Tarik Skubal Trade Talks Resurfacing

    Speaking of potential aces changing teams, those early-offseason trade rumors involving Tarik Skubal have reportedly returned. Here’s the key line from Buster Olney on the Just Baseball podcast.

    “I’ve heard around the edges there’s been even more activity around Skubal in terms of preparing for possible trades since this arbitration has popped up.”

    In case you missed it, the Tigers filed their proposed 2026 arbitration salary for Tarik Skubal at $19M, while Skubal countered at … $32 million. It is BY FAR the largest gap in salary arbitration history and is certainly fueling this speculation.

    This is, however, another reason why a trade might be difficult to pull off. Acquiring the back-to-back Cy Young champ is already going to be insanely costly *and* he’s for sure going to free agency at this point. So throw in the fact that you might also have a $13M gap in expected cost for 2026, alone … and it’s difficult to see a deal coming together – at least, not before the arbitration ruling comes down.

    Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

    Other MLB Rumors

    The San Diego Padres were one of the final teams in on Nolan Arneado before he was dealt to the Diamondbacks. However, San Diego wanted the Cardinals to eat EVEN MORE salary than the D-Backs did (which was already a ridiculous amount: $31M of the $42M remaining). With that said, the Padres are reportedly still active in free agency, turning their attention and remaining financial might (however limited it may be) on the starting pitching market. According to Ken Rosenthal, they have their eyes on Nick Martinez, Lucas Giolito, and Justin Verlander. They have, however, also checked in with the Brewers on Freddy Peralta. Remember, you can never EVER count out AJ Preller and the Padres on any player or transaction, no matter how tapped out you think they are. The Pirates are interested in free agent third baseman Eugenio Suarez, which is interesting on its own, but also makes me wonder if they might call the Cubs about their young, cheap, cost-controlled third baseman, Matt Shaw. Perhaps a deal centered around Jared Jones could make some sense for both sides. To that end, yesterday, we wondered whether the Red Sox would come calling on Matt Shaw, dangling one of their top pitching prospects in the process:

    Are the Boston Red Sox Going to Call About Matt Shaw? t.co/RIAJgC2Mfi pic.twitter.com/NnGKBx3fUV

    — Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) January 20, 2026 According to Bob Nightengale, the Mets still want a front-line starting pitcher and are the “perfect fit” for Zac Gallen or Framber Valdez (though he suggests the Orioles share the same two targets). The Athletic’s Will Sammon also reports the Mets’ interest in Valdez and Gallen. And, finally, in case you missed it: the Cubs are “in play” for free agent IF/OF Miguel Andujar, though I suspect that interest would be predicated on a separate move. It’s all discussed here:

    REPORT: Cubs “In Play” for Free Agent Miguel Andujar t.co/UPy3W4xClA pic.twitter.com/HoXGNseMfy

    — Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) January 19, 2026

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