Kemi Badenoch thinks the Tory psychodrama is finally over…but is it? ...Middle East

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Kemi Badenoch thinks the Tory psychodrama is finally over…but is it?

After a turbulent 24 hours, in which the right of British politics erupted into all out war, it may come as a surprise that Kemi Badenoch was willing to pay credit to Nigel Farage for wreaking such havoc.

But that is exactly what the Tory leader did the morning after she booted Robert Jenrick out of her party for plotting to defect to Reform UK in as “damaging” a way possible.

    “I’m just glad that Nigel Farage is doing my spring cleaning for me,” she told broadcasters during a visit to Scotland.

    “He’s taking away my problems. The Conservative Party is… even more united and stronger, because we’ve lost someone who was not a team player.”

    Loss of Jenrick still a blow

    In truth, losing a prominent member of her Cabinet – and one of the more popular Tory MPs according to polls of party members to a rival on the Right – is a blow to Badenoch, despite her best efforts to downplay it.

    But her decisiveness in kicking him out of the party, and her assured performances in the wake of his attacks on joining Reform, has gained her plaudits and, for the time being at least, further united the Tories.

    Badenoch’s strategy to galvanise the party after her latest setback appears to be twofold: she will stake her political future on restoring the Conservatives’ reputation on the economy, and she will refuse to countenance any sliding back into the years of the Tory “psychodrama”, which she believes is just as damaging to the party than the Truss or Johnson premierships.

    “As much as people will remember things like the Liz Truss budget or partygate, one of the overriding things that people will say about the final years of the Conservative government was the constant in-fighting. People hate that,” a source close to the Tory leader told The i Paper.

    Tories braced for ‘very difficult’ local elections

    But first the Tory leader must contend with what is expected to be an incredibly challenging set of elections come May, with the electorate yet to forgive the party for its dysfunction in the last few years of government.

    According to sources close to the Conservative leader, both she and her Shadow Cabinet are braced for a difficult set of local elections as well as those in Scotland and Wales, but they say that won’t distract from the central message from the party – bearing down on the cost of living.

    Badenoch claims Nigel Farage is dong her ‘spring cleaning’ by taking Robert Jenrick. (Photo by Carl Court/Getty Images)

    “They’re going to be very difficult for us,” a senior source admitted. “We’re not pretending that the momentum that has been behind Kemi and the Conservatives in recent months is necessarily going to translate to the local elections, because there are so many different factors at a local level.

    “But we’ve got a very clear message, which is about living within our means and bringing down the cost of living by bringing down the cost of government spending, and in particular the ever spiralling welfare bill.”

    Badenoch narrowing poll gap on Reform

    It is certainly true that Jenrick’s departure coincides with a stalling in support for Reform in the polls and the return of an uptick in backing for the Tories.

    Two polls this month have shown the Conservatives narrowing the lead on Reform, with a More in Common poll showing the Tories eight points behind their right wing rivals, followed by a YouGov survey that had the gap down to four points.

    Team Kemi has put this down to a laser-like focus on a single policy area, the cost of living and the wider economy.

    There is a belief within Badenoch’s inner circle that Reform’s rise and prolonged stint at the top of the polls is down to the political focus being on the small boats crisis and immigration.

    But just as Labour has started to realise, the number one issue is and always has been the other crisis befalling the country, the cost of living, which the Tories see as being their key to success.

    “Reform obviously enjoyed a moment and a big poll boost over the summer, when the discussion was almost entirely about small boats and illegal immigration, and that plays very much into their narrative,” the source said.

    “Since that point, the focus more generally, certainly in Britain, is the cost of living. We’ve obviously seen that Keir Starmer desperately trying to get on to that, scraping the barnacles off the Labour boat that aren’t about cost of living, like ID cards.

    “Kemi saw this coming, which was why her conference speech was squarely about the economic situation.

    “Obviously, we announced we were leaving the ECHR but her conference speech was about getting the housing movement market moving with the stamp duty cut, cutting business rates for small businesses on the high street and bringing down the welfare bill.”

    Reform are ‘panicked’

    The Tories’ newfound confidence in their own messaging has, according to senior Tory sources, “panicked Reform”, leading Farage to “junk his 2024 manifesto”, which promised “£130bn of unfunded tax cuts”.

    The message is one that Badenoch and the party will continue to deliver between now and the next election. “We’ve continued to be very clear-eyed with our diagnosis of what is wrong with the country,” the insider said. “That we need to cut the cost of living by cutting energy bills, cutting tax sensibly and paying down the deficit.

    Rising star Katie Lam with then Conservative Party leadership candidate, Robert Jenrick at the Conservative Party conference in 2024.. (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)

    “Reform don’t have an economic policy, they don’t even have a shadow chancellor and Jenrick, [Richard] Tice and [Nadhim] Zahawi all think they’re getting the role.”

    Jenrick’s departure brings an added benefit for the Conservative leader in that it removes a potential challenger to her crown in the wake of May’s elections.

    There appears to be little appetite for regicide among Tory MPs at present, and while a disappointing set of election results may bring about a change of mood, there are few candidates who could feasibly lead a coup.

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    Kent MP Katie Lam has emerged as a rising star among the Tory right, but insiders believe it is too soon for her to mount a realistic challenge, while James Cleverly, who came close to making the final two in the last leadership election, appears to be willing to fall in behind his leader, for now at least.

    As one shadow minister put it: “Kemi has shown some pretty clear leadership on this. Very strong, very clear. A group of us were chatting last night and in agreement that in the main, we’ve never been more united.”

    Another Tory MP added: “Obviously I would rather people weren’t leaving (I always liked Nadhim – and not sure how his political instincts are going to go down with his new crew) but this actually feels rather good. No one could call Kemi indecisive.”

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