WASHINGTON DC – Suddenly, a US military strike on Iran may be off the table, after Donald Trump was beseeched by his allies in the region not to inflame a situation that, at least for now, may be resolving. Having spent the week telegraphing that he was itching to unleash force on the country’s mullahs, Trump is instead keeping his powder dry.
Just as the evacuations of non-essential US and UK military personnel were underway at Al-Udeid Air Base, America’s sprawling facility in Qatar, the US President suddenly told reporters at the White House that he had been assured “that the killing is stopping. It’s stopped”. Citing “very important sources on the other side” whom he did not identify, Trump said he had learned “there’s no plans for executions”, and claimed he had secured the information “on good authority”.
On Tuesday, Trump had indicated that the execution of any protesters would be the trigger for an American military assault. “If they hang them, you’re going to see some things,” he said. “We will take very strong action if they do such a thing.” His warning may have encouraged the regime in Iran to postpone Wednesday’s anticipated hanging of 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, a shopkeeper who was arrested at his home in the northern city of Fardis on January 8.
But having promised Iranians that “help is on its way”, Trump is now reportedly considering a range of non-military options. The website Axios reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is urging “non-kinetic” responses to assist the Iranian people, including covert operations inside the country, and boosting efforts to ensure US-based Persian-language television networks remain able to reach Iranian audiences.
Fresh sanctions are reportedly being discussed, along with cyber attacks. Both measures would be intended to target Iran’s security forces, accused in recent days of unprecedented brutality. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency claims at least 2,615 people have been killed and another 18,470 arrested by security forces.
Amid reports from Tehran that the Iranian government is cautiously confident it has quelled the worst of the protests, Trump was urged by Oman and Qatar to abandon any plans for short-term military action. A spokesman for the Qatari foreign ministry told reporters that any escalation would be “catastrophic” for the region. “We believe a diplomatic solution is possible,” he said at a news conference.
Trump’s decision on Iran has enormously high stakes. Any attack on Iranian security sites would have to be sufficiently tactical in nature that it avoided any risk of killing civilians. With the regime already arguing that demonstrators are agents of the United States and Israel, a strike has the potential to fuel a fresh regime crackdown.
On Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate within Iran’s ruling elite, claimed foreign agents “have trained some people inside and outside the country”, and claimed that “terrorists” have been stationed inside Iran to foment efforts at toppling the Government.
If military action is moving to the back burner, Trump may also flirt once again with the idea of direct talks with the Iranians. Earlier this month, the White House announced that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff would lead American efforts to negotiate with the regime. But that initiative came to a screeching halt on Tuesday, when Trump announced on social media that he had “cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protestors STOPS”. It has never been clear whether any meetings were scheduled, nor where they might have taken place.
Trump has long coveted conversations with the Iranian government. In November 2024, just days after his election victory, it was revealed that X owner Elon Musk had been dispatched by Trump to meet Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations for secret talks that explored the possibility of reducing tensions between Washington and Tehran. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un reportedly advised the Iranian government to reach out to Trump’s transition team, arguing that in his second term, the US President might prove uniquely open to discussions.
Trump may also be mindful of the fact that some of his grassroots supporters are still struggling to understand why the US President’s determination to be the man “running Venezuela” is in America’s national interest. For many of the Make America Great Again (Maga) faithful, Iran may be a geographic step too far.
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Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, branded a “traitor” by Trump for challenging his leadership of Maga, used her social media account to fire a fresh shot across his bows. “Call me old fashioned but I’m still against regime change and fighting and funding foreign wars,” she wrote on Monday. “How did that go out of style in only one year?”
Any efforts to negotiate with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, run the risk of disappointing Republican hawks on Capitol Hill. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is one influential Republican urging the US President to go for the regime’s jugular. “It’s time for him to go. The people want him to go,” he said of Khamenei in an interview on Fox News last weekend. “If I were you, Mr President, I would kill the leadership that are killing the people. You’ve got to end this,” Graham urged, calling the Iranian supreme leader “the modern-day Hitler”.
But by Tuesday, Graham was also calling for cyber and other psychological operations to degrade the power of the mullahs in Iran. He described Trump as “Reagan Plus when it comes to protecting America’s vital national security interests”, a fresh indication that whatever the US President decides, Graham will remain fully on board with his leader.
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