Enab Baladi – Mohammad Kakhi
Qatar’s Al-Jazeera channel revealed movements by members of the former Assad regime remnants in Lebanese border areas, particularly in the town of al-Haysa in the Akkar Plain (Akkar Governorate, northern Lebanon), based on documents and recordings obtained from a hacker who lured both former “Brigade 42” commander Ghiyath Dalla and former “Elite Forces” commander Suheil al-Hassan, after convincing them he was an Israeli officer in charge of the Syria file.
The documents show a pivotal role for both al-Hassan and Dalla in these moves, which included discussions about arranging military operations and activating cells loyal to the former regime, in an effort to reshape the military landscape against the current Syrian government.
These documents came a week after The New York Times published an investigative report revealing that former officers in Assad’s regime are working from exile in Russia and Lebanon to plan an armed rebellion against the Syrian government.
The American newspaper said the fall of the Assad regime did not end the influence of an elite group of its military and security leaders, but rather pushed some of them to reorganize from exile, in an attempt to destabilize Syria’s new government and possibly carve out zones of influence inside the country.
Reproducing chaos
The documents aired by Al-Jazeera showed that the number of fighters affiliated with the former regime remnants reaches about 168,000, distributed across sectors in Homs, Hama, Damascus, and the coastal area, with deployment maps and varied armament that includes anti-armor missiles, artillery, and medium and light weapons.
However, these figures may be inaccurate and may not reflect the actual numbers of the former regime remnants. The leaked documents and information show a dispute between Suheil al-Hassan and Rami Makhlouf, who believes al-Hassan inflated the number of fighters to obtain excess funds beyond what was needed.
Mutaz al-Sayyed, a researcher at the Syrian Center for Security and Defense Studies, believes what is happening goes no further than faltering attempts to re-form sub-state groups that lack experience, organization, and support. He said the fall of the former regime was a structural shock that weakened the remnants’ ability to reposition and stripped them of any effective regional or international backing.
Al-Sayyed told Enab Baladi that this phase does not carry a qualitative new development as much as it reflects waning momentum and the loss of social cover, particularly along the coast, where religious and social segments, including parts of the Alawite community, have begun distancing themselves from these projects and moving closer to the state in search of stability and better living conditions. This, he said, indicates an erosion of the organizational idea itself.
Researcher and political analyst Nader al-Khalil argued that what distinguishes current attempts is that the break experienced by groups linked to the former regime is not only military, but also political, social, and economic. This has pushed the remnants to rely on flexible financial and military networks rather than heavy militarization, drawing on major financial support from Rami Makhlouf and failed efforts to use Lebanon as a platform for recruitment and training.
But al-Khalil said the broader context in Lebanon and the region over the past year is entirely different, making these attempts more desperate and less internationally supported after the former regime’s complete collapse. This, he added, exposes them to rapid failure despite the noise and media exaggeration surrounding them.
Suheil al-Hassan alongside Russian special forces members aboard an aircraft during military parachute-drop training, 30 March 2022 (Zvezda)
Lebanon as the operations room
Reuters reported on 28 December 2024 that many officers and figures from the toppled Assad regime fled to Lebanon. The most prominent names included Rifaat al-Assad, described as responsible for the Hama massacre, the head of the Military Intelligence Directorate Kamal al-Hassan, and Ali Mamlouk, often portrayed as the Assad family’s “black box.”
One document obtained by Al-Jazeera indicates that former “Elite Forces” commander Major General Suheil al-Hassan set up a “large” office in the al-Haysa area near the Syrian border to serve as headquarters for managing planned military operations against Syria, as part of efforts to reorganize and target the new Syrian government.
The leaks also spoke of one leader among the former regime remnants named Mahmoud al-Salman, who holds Lebanese citizenship and is based in the Dahir Bashir area (Akkar Governorate, northern Lebanon). He previously took part in fighting inside Syria, and preparations are underway for a role he would play in what was described as a new armed movement.
Analysts who spoke to Enab Baladi said Lebanon’s transformation into a sphere of activity for the former Assad regime remnants cannot be separated from deep structural imbalances in Lebanon’s own security landscape.
Mutaz al-Sayyed argued that Hezbollah’s expanding grip over state institutions has provided a permissive environment that the remnants can later exploit against the new Syrian government. This, he said, constrains the Lebanese state’s ability to act independently and makes coordination with Damascus a strategic option that cannot be avoided to contain shared threats.
Nader al-Khalil said any unilateral Lebanese move in this file remains fraught with risk, given the close security entanglement between the two countries, the complexities of Iranian influence and its networks inside Lebanon, and the fact that the Lebanese state is aware of these activities without possessing decisive tools. He added that the issue will likely remain under passive monitoring unless paired with direct coordination with Syria or international support that shifts the balance of capabilities.
The Syrian and Lebanese governments face challenges in dealing with the former regime remnants, tied to how institutionalized the security and military establishments are in both countries, their readiness to engage in mutual security coordination, and the inability to separate any such coordination from unstable regional equations. Disputed files remain unresolved, most notably border demarcation and how it would affect any formula for security coordination.
Ayman al-Dassouky, researcher and political analyst
Damascus’s position, “smart containment” instead of a security explosion
A Syrian security delegation held a series of meetings with the director of intelligence in the Lebanese army, Brig. Gen. Tony Kahwaji, as well as Lebanese security officials, on 19 December 2025.
According to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, the meetings focused on figures affiliated with the former Syrian regime believed to be present on Lebanese territory.
Syrian officials explained during the visit that this falls within the framework of “pursuing the former regime remnants inside and outside the country.”
The Lebanese outlet Al-Modon also reported on 22 December 2025 that the Syrian security delegation that visited Lebanon handed the Lebanese state a list of officers affiliated with the ousted president Bashar al-Assad’s regime and requested they be handed over to Syria.
Researchers said Damascus’s approach tends toward what can be described as “smart containment” rather than moving toward an open-ended security confrontation that could reproduce broader cycles of violence.
Mutaz al-Sayyed believes Syrian authorities have a set of tools that can contain the remnants domestically without widening confrontation. He said this begins with boosting dialogue and injecting development projects, and does not rule out cooperation with UN bodies on disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs. This would run in parallel with tightening security measures in sensitive areas such as the coast and strengthening intelligence work to monitor emerging movements. He warned that the situation could explode if an external actor decides to adopt these moves and provide financial or military backing.
Political analyst Ayman al-Dassouky said Damascus’s openness to correcting its relationship with Lebanon, through exchanging ambassadors and opening disputed files, does not mean security coordination is settled. Rather, it remains under test for both governments, in addition to the challenges it faces.
On the one hand, it tests the Lebanese government’s capacity and independence to enter security arrangements that a Lebanese component may view as directed against it, and how that could negatively affect Lebanon’s internal balance and, by extension, Syria. On the other hand, it tests the Syrian government’s ability to deal with the complexity of the Lebanese file and its regional entanglements.
Al-Dassouky told Enab Baladi that the absence of a comprehensive Syrian approach to this file could increase the cost to the Syrian government, in terms of bearing waves of instability originating from Lebanon, especially with any shift in Lebanon’s internal equations or regional dynamics.
Nader al-Khalil argued that the regional and international backing Damascus enjoys enables it to adopt a layered approach that does not rest on repression, but on accelerating transitional justice tracks, conditional integration after security vetting, and drying up financial and logistical networks. This would be paired with an inclusive discourse, a calibrated amnesty, and reintegration and support programs for local communities, especially along the coast, aiming to sever old loyalties and build trust that prevents the reproduction of violence.
Al-Khalil added that the recent leaks represent an opportunity to close the “remnants” file once and for all, but mishandling them could turn a warning into a new humanitarian catastrophe.
Lebanon becomes an operations hub for former Assad regime remnants Enab Baladi.
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