Three elite freshmen sit atop all NBA mock drafts. We break down how they’ve begun their college careers and what to watch for the rest of the season.
With conference play underway in college basketball, the NBA Draft class of 2026 is starting to crystallize – and it has lived up to the hype.
With apologies to some of the upperclassmen having excellent seasons (we see you, Yaxel Lendeborg!), there are three freshmen in contention to be the first overall pick. And what makes this trio of players particularly intriguing is how different they are from one another.
AJ Dybantsa (BYU) is a prototypical big, athletic wing with more skill at this stage of his career than most in his archetype. Cameron Boozer (Duke) is the same height (6-foot-9) as Dybantsa but is a technically refined scoring machine who gets to the basket and shoots a credible 3-pointer. Darryn Peterson (Kansas) is a quick-twitch guard with strength and a flamethrower of a jump shot.
The last time there were three true contenders for the No. 1 overall pick was in 2022, when Paolo Banchero went first to the Orlando Magic, Chet Holmgren second to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Jabari Smith Jr. third to the Houston Rockets. But this year’s trio has a chance to be an even better collection of prospects than those three.
There are still months to play in the college season, though, and we get the benefit of watching these three grow in that time. They’ve shown flashes of greatness already, but each player has at least a plausible chance to ascend to another level before the end of the season.
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12 months ago Matt Becker, Scott GarbariniAJ Dybantsa, BYU
Dybantsa’s season had a fast start. After all, his low for points in a game is 17.
But it’s safe to say he’s gotten better after a decent November.
In eight games since the start of December, Dybantsa is averaging 26.8 points and shooting 62.9% from the field. After averaging 6.8 free throws in November, he’s up to an absurd 10.0 per game since then. The scoring explosion has him up to a 23.1-point average, third among Division I major conference players and just 0.2 behind Boozer for the lead among freshmen.
(through Jan. 8)Dybantsa is impossible for most teams to guard. He has a 7-0 wingspan, a quick first step, and continues to get more and more relentless attacking the basket. He shows good touch near the rim and is ahead of schedule as a passer, making the right reads when help comes to set up his teammates in advantageous positions.
Defensively, Dybantsa’s effort can fluctuate but he has a high ceiling as an on-ball stopper. He uses his length well and can be a menace when players try to drive on him.
He needs to work on his off-ball defense, particularly on closeouts, where a simple fake and drive can get by him too often. That shouldn’t work against a player of his athleticism.
BYU has benefited from an easy schedule since a tough start to the season. After playing Villanova, UConn and Wisconsin in November, the Cougars have played just one team in the top 80 of TRACR (Clemson) since then. A player of Dybantsa’s build simply overwhelms the less-talented teams in the country without much effort.
Against elite teams, sheer athleticism and size won’t be enough. Dybantsa is a below-average (but passable) 3-point shooter, so he’ll have to utilize craftiness off the dribble and a good midrange shot when he’s not getting to the foul line as often against good defenses.
While his numbers might come down a little with opponents like Arizona and Kansas coming up on the schedule, there’s no reason to think Dybantsa won’t continue to be one of the best players in the country. His elite athleticism gives him a high floor, and his improving shot, playmaking and defensive consistency give him a chance to be an elite two-way weapon at the next level.
A lot of players in his archetype go high in the NBA Draft, but he’s one of the best of that bunch in recent memory.
Cameron Boozer, Duke
There’s only one freshman who’s better than Dybantsa this season, and it’s a player who should be the current frontrunner for national player of the year – Cameron Boozer.
Fortunately for the spectators’ eardrums, Boozer isn’t as loud as his two-time NBA All-Star father Carlos was in his 13-year career, but his game speaks volumes. He’s an elite scorer in isolation with a game calibrated for modern basketball. He replaces some of the midrange shots players of his ilk would’ve taken in the past with a modest amount of 3s, shooting 37.3% on 3.9 3-point attempts per game.
His production has been off the charts, as Boozer leads Division I in WAR.
While Dybantsa is often sheer force of will, Boozer is unstoppable in a more technical way. He knows his spots and gets to them with ease. And once he’s where he wants to be, it’s over.
Nobody is better at using his body to shield the ball from the defender than Boozer, and he has a soft touch no matter where he is on the floor. Perhaps most impressive is his poise. Defenses are designed to speed up primary options and force them to make mistakes, but Boozer always plays at his own tempo.
He’s an above-average passer as well and a bit ahead of Dybantsa in that regard. Boozer can pass effectively out of the post, off a live dribble, or on the perimeter while Duke is rotating the ball. For how effective and high-usage he is as a scorer, he still makes the right play when the defense dictates ball movement.
The biggest question for Boozer is his defense. He’s certainly not a pushover, but he’s also not a shot-blocker and doesn’t project to be an elite wing stopper, either. There is some concern that at the NBA level, Boozer will be a bit of a tweener defensively. In other words, he’s too small and not enough of a rim protector to play long stretches at center and not quick enough laterally to effectively defend forwards.
It’s a fair concern, but Boozer should be able to mitigate it somewhat with his high basketball IQ and length (like Dybantsa, his wingspan is close to 7-0). He may never anchor an elite defense, but he likely won’t be a massive liability, either.
ACC teams will continue to test Boozer on that end often to try to tire him out. He’s clearly an elite prospect, but how he responds to these defensive challenges (particularly when he is directly involved in action) will go a long way toward determining whether he’s the first player to have his name called on draft night.
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
This season has been an unquestioned success for Dybantsa and Boozer. That’s not the case for Peterson.
Peterson has played in just six of Kansas’ 15 games due to a leg injury and has had to be removed from his last two games due to lingering injury issues.
Tuesday’s game was particularly bizarre, with Peterson asking out of the game with 2:30 left due to a leg issue. He reentered with Kansas down three points with 1.7 seconds left and got fouled on a 3-point shot.
After hitting all three free throws, he checked out again and didn’t play in overtime due to what Kansas head coach Bill Self described as cramping. The Jayhawks pulled out the win anyway.
Hopefully, Peterson can get fully healthy because he’s been electric when on the court. He’s averaged 22.5 points in just 26.5 minutes, easily clearing Dybantsa and Boozer in points per 40 minutes.
Peterson is a true three-level scorer who’s built around his shot and excellent burst. It’s only a six-game sample, but Peterson is shooting 43.2% on 7.3 3s per game (again, in only 26.5 minutes). When teams overplay his jumper, he uses his combination of burst and strength to get to the lane.
He has a rhythm to his game and is superb at changing speeds on drives. It’s easy to see how off-balance defenders are when guarding him, particularly because he’s adept at finishing with either hand at the basket.
Although Peterson is a decent passer when defenses collapse, he’s clearly a shooting guard. He has the size to play that position at the next level (6-5 with a wingspan approaching 6-11), but he’d have to beat history to be the No. 1 pick as an off-guard.
NBA teams almost always opt for a player with size to match elite athleticism. When they do select a guard, it’s almost always a point guard who can run the offense.
Since 1980, Anthony Edwards is the only off-guard selected first overall (some might say Allen Iverson, but he was a scoring point guard at Georgetown who averaged double the assists of any of his teammates). That’s one player in 46 years.
It’s funny that one player is Edwards because that’s who Peterson looks like when driving to the rim. He doesn’t quite have the burst or strength of Edwards at Georgia, but both players routinely muscle bigger players out of the way to get where they’re going.
While there’s no guarantee Peterson gets anywhere close to where Edwards has ascended to as an NBA superstar, taking a slightly less dynamic version of Edwards as a prospect with a much better jumper would be incredibly appealing to teams.
But Peterson has to prove he can be that player consistently, and he certainly has to raise his defensive consistency. There’s the occasional defensive highlight due to his athleticism, but too often in his six games, Peterson’s been caught out of position. This is to be expected as he returns from injury, but he needs to improve in the coming weeks.
Peterson has the most to prove over the remainder of the college season among these three prospects, but there’s plenty of time for him to do so.
If all three players continue to improve before the NBA Draft, it will make for a fascinating (and potentially league-altering) draft night.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
NBA Draft 2026: A Trio of Differently Styled Freshmen Lead the Way Opta Analyst.
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