The Edward Cabrera Trade Situation Seems to Be Coming to a Head ...Middle East

It’s been a background rumor for a very long time now, but it seems like the Miami Marlins might finally be on the verge of trading 27-year-old starter Edward Cabrera.

If it happens, it seems like it’s going to happen soon, and it very well could be to the New York Yankees.

Edward Cabrera Trade Rumors and the New York Yankees Reports

There was a rapid-fire flurry of reports, kicked off by Chris Kirschner and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, all of which point together in a particular direction about a coming Edward Cabrera trade:

News with @Ken_Rosenthal: The Yankees are talking to the Miami Marlins about a potential trade for starting pitcher Edward Cabrera. Brian Cashman said last month that he would "love" to add another starter. More below ⬇️ t.co/kJCTwvcTWG

Talks have intensified between the Miami Marlins and New York Yankees surrounding right-hander Edward Cabrera, sources tell @YahooSports. Nothing imminent, but progressing. @ChrisKirschner and @Ken_Rosenthal were first on talks heating up.

Yankees are talking to Marlins about Edward Cabrera, a terrifically talented pitcher coming off excellent year (3.53 ERA). Cubs and Giants (and others) also believed interested. Marlins pitching depth allows them to consider. @Ken_Rosenthal 1st mentioned NYY link

Per source, Yankees, Mets and Cubs have shown interest in Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera and Marlins are listening. Astros and Orioles inquired earlier. Talks ongoing with Yankees, The Athletic reported a little while ago.

As @ChrisKirschner & @Ken_Rosenthal noted the Marlins & Yankees have had previous discussions surrounding Pitcher Edward Cabrera. Miami would be getting several prospects back in return if it finalizes. High ceiling types.

Other reports had some specific prospect names thrown around, which is not definitive, but that is often what you see when talks have reached a near-final stage. Yes, sometimes it’s a last-minute leverage play to try to get some other team to come in over the top, but usually, by the time the reporting is out there, the final asks have already made the rounds among interested suitors.

More to the point: when you see a flurry of follow-on reports like this – there were tons more – and the original report was from a less-common news-breaker (with a big name colleague, like Ken Rosenthal, attached), it means the situation is really quite serious. Everyone will hedge with their own preferred language, because things can fall through, but this is what it looks like on the outside when a deal is more or less in place on the inside. There may be medicals to sort through, international players to inform, secondary pieces to finalize, etc., but those are all relatively modest considerations when it comes to completing a trade. When it reaches the stage that it sure seems like this one has reached, the trade almost always gets completed.

The only caveat would be where there is some other move that is a precondition to putting the final stamp on the trade (re-signing Cody Bellinger, maybe?), and that can absolutely throw a wrench in an otherwise nearly-completed deal.

Speaking of the medicals, that’s where I’ll slide in with the Chicago Cubs mention in those reports. It isn’t really new information that the Cubs would have interest in Edward Cabrera. That goes back many months now, even to the Trade Deadline or last offseason – when, incidentally, the Cubs tried to complete a trade with the Marlins for Jesus Luzardo, but it was scuttled by medical concerns. It wouldn’t surprise me, then, that the Cubs have not been willing to go over the top for Cabrera, given his expansive injury history, including an elbow injury in the second half that saw him miss time not once, but twice. He has also had shoulder issues for multiple years, and had never reached 100 innings at the big league level until this past season.

None of that is to say you wouldn’t still want Edward Cabrera. He is incredibly talented. The stuff is right up there with anyone you might realistically be able to get, and he’s worth having in your organization for the massive upside.

But it’s hard for me to imagine that, acquiring him now, actually gets you three full years of team control. You’ll pay for three full years of team control, sure, but it just seems likely that he’s going to miss big chunks of that time. The best predictor of future injuries, unfortunately, is past injuries. And not that you WANT a guy to have had a particular surgery in the past, when it comes to elbow surgery, at least, it does seem like it typically buys a guy a nice long run of time without additional elbow issues. (It’s a small part of the reason I was preferring Sandy Alcantara to Edward Cabrera in a trade.)

We’ll see how much Cabrera costs in trade, but my guess is that it will wind up less than Shane Baz cost the Orioles (which was a freaking ridiculous amount, by the way). The difference is that Baz is now clear of surgery, and put up 30 more innings this past season than Cabrera ever has in a season.

None of this happens in a vacuum, of course, so we’ll have to see what the market-related fallout is if the Yankees (or another team) gets this deal over the finish line. Although the Yankees haven’t been heavily rumored in the free agent starting pitcher market thanks to the near-full-rotation’s-worth of stud pitchers they have coming back in the first few months of the season, a trade like this has always made sense. So if they pull it off, it’s probably good news for guys like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen, who see a competing asset go off the market to a team that probably was not going to be in on them.

The impact goes not only to the trade and starter markets, but also to the positional free agent group. Any move of a controlled starting pitcher is necessarily going to leave more dollars available for that team to sign a big positional name (or the reverse, if you were a team that was pre-conditioning such a signing on the ability to acquire a guy like Edward Cabrera in the first place).

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