Vance Joseph brought the house.
One last time.
Just to be sure.
All the way back in Week 1, Tennessee quarterback Cam Ward, scrambled and scarred after making his NFL debut against a buzzing Denver defense, still had a chance.
Not much of one, but the Titans had the ball, fourth-and-10 in their own territory with 47 seconds left and trailing 20-12.
They needed the end zone.
They weren’t getting close.
Denver nickel Ja’Quan McMillian came roaring off the defense’s left edge, the free runner in a six-man pressure.
He blasted Ward and knocked the ball loose. Broncos rookie Jahdae Barron dove and recovered the ball.
Ballgame.
Denver’s defense put forth a powerful start to the season. Not only in badgering a quarterback making his first start or in holding Tennessee without a touchdown. Not just in surrendering just 133 yards and seven first downs.
That late fumble recovery was Denver’s second of the day — its safety pair of Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Jones teamed up to force and recover one, respectively, in the first half.
A defense as disruptive as the Broncos figured to be and one that takes the ball away, too? That set up a scary proposition.
Talanoa Hufanga (9) of the Denver Broncos tackles Chig Okonkwo (85) of the Tennessee Titans during the frist quarter at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, Sept. 7, 2025. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)Except then a strange thing happened. The turnovers dried up. The group has smacked around quarterbacks, tackled well and dominated most key areas but hasn’t taken the ball away like an elite defense.
Now the playoffs are just about here and head coach Sean Payton is doing his version of sounding an alarm bell.
He spent Monday’s team meeting talking not about the club’s first AFC West title in a decade but about the fact that only one team in 25 years has won a Super Bowl with a negative turnover differential in the postseason.
“So that’s something we have to improve on,” he said.
It was a message to Denver’s defense in particular, though turnover differential involves offenses, too.
The question: At what cost? What Denver’s done defensively so far this season has worked. Payton essentially said it won’t in the playoffs. So what now?
A dry well
To Hufanga, the great takeaway question has a simple answer.
Why does such a good defense not take the ball away? And how can it start doing so at this late juncture of the season?
“I’ve got to catch the ball,” the 25-year-old playing his first season in Denver said. “Once I catch the ball, it’s going to start raining. Because I’ve dropped a lot this year.”
Hufanga’s not wrong about that.
There are at least six instances this season in which the standout safety has had his hands on the ball. He’s still stuck at zero interceptions.
In the third quarter Week 5 against Philadelphia, he came free on a blitz, batted a Jalen Hurts pass into the air and then had it on his fingertips. It looked like a walk-in touchdown. Instead, incomplete.
Against Houston, he first undercut a throw in the flat to running back Woody Marks. Then he ranged over the top of a deep ball to Nico Collins. Both times in great position. Nada.
Against the New York Giants, either he or Brandon Jones could have ended the game with 1:01 remaining and spared that wild ending when a Jaxson Dart deep ball fluttered for Beaux Collins. Instead, they collided, Jones was hurt and the ball hit the turf. New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo, bottom, scores against Denver Broncos cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian (29), cornerback Riley Moss, second from left, and safety Brandon Jones at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2025. Broncos won 33-32. (Photo by Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post)
Hufanga is not the only Broncos defender who has dropped chances at interceptions — Barron and inside linebacker Alex Singleton both have and others, like defensive lineman Zach Allen, have come close, too.
His point is a fine one, though. Denver’s missed its share of chances. Maybe more.
There are also structural explanations. The Broncos play more man coverage than anybody in football by most measures and sometimes that can result in fewer chances at interceptions. There may be fewer overlap players coming to help in coverage and there are fewer players patrolling zones, letting the quarterback lead them to the football.
Payton, for example, brought up Jacksonville’s propensity for intercepting the ball last month before the teams played and said, “I’m not going to say they’ve played (no) man-to-man, but there are a lot of snaps where seven (sets of) eyes are on the quarterback in their zone coverage.”
A year ago Denver tied for eighth in interceptions (15) and in 2023, Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s first year here, the Broncos tied for 18th (11).
All of those are logical pieces to the puzzle.
The confounding part: Denver’s disappeared fumble production.
That fumble Barron recovered in the final minute of the Broncos’ season opener is the last one the defense captured. Over 15 full games since, including 12 wins, Joseph’s group has forced a paltry four fumbles and recovered none of them.
It is particularly strange because a frequent source of fumbles is when quarterbacks get hit and the Broncos hit quarterbacks more than anybody in football.
They’ve re-set last year’s franchise record with 64 sacks and have 156 quarterback hits.
Payton on Monday cut off a question about declining sack production and said, “We’re not focused on the sack numbers. Those can actually be numbers that help a quarterback climb up in the pocket. A lot of it maybe has to do with who we’ve been playing relative to the quarterback position, but I’m not interested in the sack numbers.”
Payton, though, is clearly interested in turnovers and this defense should be a reliable producer of them. It just hasn’t been.
“The sack record, obviously that’s not what Coach Payton wants to talk about, but that’s just a fact that we’re getting to the quarterback,” inside linebacker Justin Strnad told The Post. “Usually there’s strip sacks and things. It’s on us to just make it’s more of a point of emphasis and put more into it when we’re out there.”
In 64 sacks, the ball has come out just twice — the Week 1 Barron recovery and a Nik Bonitto strip sack Week 13 vs. Washington that the Commanders recovered.
The Broncos’ unselfish play style may actually factor into the equation some. They are disciplined and they crush pockets down from the front. One of Payton’s most frequent adages is that the worst place to be on the field is behind the quarterback.
“You’re boxing the quarterback in and making him throw from the pocket,” Joseph explained Thursday. “And obviously if you’re rushing with four, the coverage should be pretty good. You make him hold it and you sack him that way.”
That also means fewer fly-by sacks and fewer times where an edge rusher like Nik Bonitto flirts with being too far up the field but ends up bending enough to get to the quarterback’s elbow or hand has he prepares to throw.
Still, with the number of times Denver has hit and sacked quarterbacks, two fumbles forced and one recovered is difficult to square.
The anomaly
Four years ago, the Los Angeles Rams went minus-2 in the turnover battle through four postseason games, then hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.
They are, as Payton pointed out, the only team since 2000 to post a negative turnover differential in the postseason and win the Super Bowl.
“The rest add up to some crazy number,” Payton said.
Indeed, the other 24 champions in that span have gone a combined plus-119, an average of plus-5 per playoff run. Last year the Eagles rumbled to plus-12, the widest margin of the century to date. Interestingly, five of the seven teams before the Eagles went either plus-1 or even, the only five instances of that narrow a margin since 2000.
The 2015 Broncos? They went plus-4 and won the turnover battle in all three postseason games. That team and the current one already have much in common and here’s another: Von Miller, Peyton Manning and company went minus-4 in the regular season before turning it around in the playoffs.
Payton’s 2009 Saints? They went plus-7 and also won the turnover battle each of their three games. That group forced 39 turnovers in the regular season, second-most in football and more than triple this year’s Broncos.
Sean McVay’s 2021 Rams are the anomaly.
How did they do it?
First, they won the turnover battle in the Wild Card round and were even in the NFC title game.
In the divisional round, they turned the ball over four times and blew a 27-3 lead before sneaking out a 30-27, walk-off win against Tampa Bay.
The Super Bowl might mark the most promising note for Denver given its output this year. The Rams turned the ball over twice and didn’t take it from Cincinnati, but they sacked Joe Burrow seven times, including the championship clincher from Aaron Donald. They held the Bengals to 3 of 14 on third down and 1 of 3 in the red zone.
Those are 2025 Broncos-type numbers.
It can be done. For a game and for a postseason. It’s just not easy.
“We’ve been really good at everything else, so it’s just taking that next step to where we want to go,” Singleton said. Alex Singleton (49) of the Denver Broncos pressures Trevor Lawrence (16) of the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
Need for change?
Turnover differential, of course, is a two-way street. It’s about takeaways and also committing turnovers.
The focus for this Broncos team lands on Joseph’s shoulders because the offense, while it hasn’t lit the world on fire, also does not have a turnover problem. They’re not elite in the department, but only 11 teams have fewer giveaways on the season.
That led Payton this week to put the pressure on Denver’s defense to find more takeaways.
Which leads to an interesting question.
The Broncos’ defense has been really good across the board and elite in several categories. Should the group change its approach, play higher-risk ball or try to remake its identity on the fly in January in pursuit of turnovers?
Joseph had a clear answer to that.
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“Obviously, if you’re in a good position, and you’re playing fast and attacking elbows as pass rushers, you can create more turnovers. I think we will create more turnovers.”
So, no. The Broncos are not going to change.
“How we play is aggressive,” Joseph said. “How we play is with good leverage and gap control and it’s worked. I’m not going to chase turnovers. I want guys tackling. I want guys in great leverage. I want guys doing their job the right way.
“I think it’s a fine line between chasing that and not playing good football. When you win third downs, that’s a turnover. We’re second in third downs. We’re second in red zone.
“For me, that’s the critical parts of football and playing defense.”
Strnad thinks Denver’s defense can keep playing by its rules and to its standards and end up with the ball more frequently. Turnovers come in bunches, the saying goes. He figures they’re going to for the Broncos, too. They have to, right?
“You’re only going to continue to play better and better teams and at that point it can come down to getting one stop, getting one turnover that can change the game,” he said. “We’ve definitely got to be able to force more turnovers. … I think we’re going to get some.”
2025 NFL turnover differential
Team Record Diff Top Chicago Bears 11-5 22 Houston Texans 11-5 14 Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 11 Los Angeles Rams 11-5 9 Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9 5 Bottom N.Y. Jets 3-13 -19 Washington 4-12 -12 Dallas 7-8-1 -8 Cleveland 3-13 -8 Minnesota 8-8 -8 Las Vegas 2-14 -7 Denver 13-3 -5 San Francisco 12-4 -52015 Broncos
Regular season: Minus-4 (27-31) Postseason Game Opponent Takeaways Giveaways Score Divisional Pittsburgh 1 0 23-16 AFC Champ. New England 2 1 20-18 Super Bowl Carolina 4 2 24-102009 Saints
Regular season: Plus-11 (39-28) Postseason Game Opponent Takeaways Giveaways Score Divisional Arizona 2 0 45-14 NFC Champ. Minnesota 5 1 31-28 Super Bowl Indianapolis 1 0 31-17Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.
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