By James Sutherland on SwimSwam
As we venture into 2026, it’s time for the SwimSwam staff’s annual “wild” predictions about what might come in the next 12 months. We’ve also provided some alter ego takes, which are more egregious and sometimes not entirely swimming-related forecasts for the year.
We’ll also give a brief overview of the predictions that were made one year ago and whether any of them were remotely close to happening.
SwimSwam’s 2025 Wild Predictions and Alter Ego Takes SwimSwam’s 2024 Wild Predictions and Alter Ego Takes SwimSwam’s 2023 Wild Predictions and Alter Ego TakesREVIEWING 2025 PREDICTIONS
Yanyan: An international male freshman wins an NCAA title Result: Only four male freshmen swimmers were individual finalists at NCAAs, and Cal’s Yamato Okadome was the lone international first-year, placing 6th in the 200 breast. However, Florida’s Alex Painter, a British native, won an NCAA title on the Gator men’s 400 medley relay, so this pick technically came true. Braden: Thomas Ceccon will wind up coming back to the U.S. with Leon after their stints in Australia and training in Austin. Result: Ceccon is headed back to Australia to train under Dean Boxall. Barry: Gretchen Walsh breaks Missy Franklin‘s NCAA record in the women’s 200-yard free. Result: She came close, clocking 1:39.34 in her lone 200 free swim of the season leading off Virginia’s 800 free relay at ACCs, just 24 one-hundredths shy of Franklin’s record that’s been on the books since 2015. James: Leon Marchand (200 free) and Summer McIntosh (800 free) experiment with new events at long course worlds and win gold. Result: Marchand opted for a pared-down schedule at Worlds, dropping two of his best events, so he wasn’t adding anything new individually. McIntosh did race the 800 free, but settled for bronze in the most highly anticipated race of the World Championships. Robert: The Mid-Atlantic region will account for at least 2/3 U.S. men’s breaststrokers at this summer’s major international competitions (Worlds, World University Games, and Junior Worlds). Result: AJ Pouch trains at Virginia Tech and Gabe Nunziata is a Virginia native, but this one didn’t quite hit. Oregon’s Campbell McKean was the big breaststroke revelation this year. Madeline: Someone not named Regan Smith or Kaylee McKeown breaks a long course women’s backstroke world record. Result: This was quite bold. Neither McKeown or Smith broke an LC world record in 2025, but they were the only ones who were close. Mark: No world records will be broken at the 2025 World Championships. Result: Not correct, but not far off, especially considering there were zero world records broken in individual finals. The only individual world record broken came from Leon Marchand in the 200 IM semis, and then the U.S. women took down the 4×100 medley relay mark and the U.S. squad added another in the mixed free relay. Nicole: Caeleb Dressel announces his retirement from competitive swimming. Result: Dressel was absent from U.S. Nationals and therefore the World Championships, but got back into action in time to race the Summer Championships in August, and seems fully motivated to continue pushing towards LA 28. Retta: Angharad Evans lands on the 100 breast podium at Worlds. Result: Evans was certainly capable of this after breaking the British Record in April (1:05.37), faster than what it took to win bronze in Singapore (1:05.64), but Evans missed the semis after going 1:07.04 in the prelims at Worlds. Anya: Gretchen Walsh wins the 50 free at NCAAs by over a second. Result: Walsh won the 50 free by 62 one-hundredths in 2025, which was actually smaller than her gap in 2024 (0.72).Out of the alter ego takes from last year, which you can find here, the only one that definitely came true (not all are quantifiable) was Mark winning Tour de France fantasy again (chapeau, Mark). Among the others that came closest was probably Braden’s prediction that the International Swimming League would attempt a revival, but only pay athletes in cryptocurrency. The ISL seemingly still has payments owing from 2021, which it needs to deal with before outlining a payment structure moving forward, but the league did announce towards the end of the year that it intends on coming back.
2026 Wild Predictions
Braden: Luka Mijatovic takes down Larsen Jensen‘s American Record in the 400 free, the oldest men’s American Record on the books.
Reid: Team USA sweeps all breaststroke events at Pan Pacs.
Yanyan: My prediction is an Indiana football and men’s swimming natty.
Madeline: No international women win individual gold medals at NCAAs.
Nicole: Michael Andrew wins an individual Pan Pac title.
Anya: Rylee Erisman medals in the 100 free at Pan Pacs and swims on the 4×200 free relay in finals (Pan Pacs usually only have timed final relays, so we’ll take this prediction as she’ll swim on the relay at Pan Pacs).
Mark: USA sweeps all the relays at Pan Pacs.
Will: The men’s 200 free winners at Euros, Pan Pacs and Asian Games all go 1:43.0 (or better).
James: After missing the Pan Pac roster, Caeleb Dressel has a Phelps-2015-Nationals-esque showing at U.S. Nationals and goes faster than the gold medal-winning time at Pan Pacs in multiple events.
2026 Alter Ego Takes
Braden: ISL vs. Enhanced Games showdown for the ages.
Reid: Jason Kelce is drafted as a color commentator for Pan Pacs.
Yanyan: One of Kylie Kelce’s daughters becomes a swimmer.
Madeline: Ryan Lochte wins Worst Cooks in America and teams up with Gordon Ramsay.
Nicole: Caeleb Dressel opens a dairy farm. Also, Emma McKeon and Cody Simpson get engaged.
Anya: I’m repeating my prediction from last year – Michael Phelps comes out of retirement to help U.S. men’s swimming
Mark: USA makes a bid to have the Olympic swimming competition raced in yards #lovemesomewalls
Will: Katie Ledecky wins the Open Water World Cup.
Barry: LeBron James buys the LA Current after the ISL revival.
James: Bob Bowman creates an ISL franchise called the “Lone Star Surge,” made up entirely of Texas-trained swimmers, and they dominate the league. Also, the Enhanced Games actively removes athletes from its roster who aren’t performing up to snuff.
Share your wild predictions for 2026 in the comments below!
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