Remember when the Cubs signed Zac Gallen earlier this offseason? No? Oh, that’s right … we forgot to say “No takebacks!” when Bob Nightengale reported Gallen’s $22M AAV, multi-year deal with the Cubs in early December. And just like that, he was a free agent again.
All jokes aside, although Nightengale clearly biffed that one, the rumor wasn’t entirely without merit. Gallen was a target of the Cubs at the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline and has been connected to them throughout this offseason. And every time one of their more preferred targets goes off the board (Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai), the rumors pop up again. Today is no exception.
Zac Gallen and the Cubs
There are two new stories up — one at The Athletic (Patrick Mooney) and one at MLB.com (Mark Feinsand) — reminding us of the Cubs’ interest in Gallen and their potential pivot in that direction following the whiff on Imai.
Mooney: “As the Cubs pivot, they can continue their dialogue with Imai’s agent, Scott Boras, who also represents Zac Gallen, a free agent who has been repeatedly linked to Chicago this offseason.” Feinsand: “A number of clubs were interested in Imai to varying degrees, but the Cubs seem to have been the most aggressive suitor after the Astros. That doesn’t mean Chicago will now pivot to one of the other top free-agent starters …. Zac Gallen might be a better fit if the Cubs are intent on adding to the rotation, while Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt and Zack Littell also remain available in free agency.”Unfortunately, I can confirm Feinsand’s reporting that the Cubs were very aggressive suitors on Imai. So much so, in fact, that I had multiple sources who thought a deal was actually getting done yesterday (perhaps they were played by Scott Boras for leverage, I don’t know). In any case, it seems we should at least be prepared for Gallen to move up a rung as the Cubs’ options dwindle.
How does that make me feel? Well, frankly, nothing has changed since the last time we talked about it.
In a vacuum, I’ve always liked the idea of adding Zac Gallen this offseason. But that was about 1000x more attractive before the Cubs brought Shota Imanaga back. In other words, I had him circled as a really interesting, legitimate upside play as the second starting pitcher they should add this winter … ideally in addition to a more sure-fire front-of-the-rotation type. But with Imanaga back, I’m less excited about Gallen being THE big arm they add this offseason.
And that’s because, despite a very strong track record throughout his career, Zac Gallen’s walk season left a lot to be desired.
2022: 31 starts, 184.0 IP, 2.54 ERA (4.2 WAR)2023: 34 starts, 210.0 IP, 3.47 ERA (5.2 WAR)2024: 28 starts, 148.0 IP, 3.65 ERA (2.8 WAR)2025: 33 starts, 192.0 IP, 4.83 ERA (1.1 WAR)
He’ll still get paid this winter, but, yeah … he cost himself a whole lot of money with that performance.
© Jeff Curry-Imagn ImagesNow, I don’t want to completely dunk on the upside of signing a pitcher like Gallen. After all, he (1) is still pretty young (only just turned 30), (2) always seems to be healthy and making starts, (3) has a track record of high-level success, and (4) finished WAY stronger than he started in 2025.
Just look at the way his numbers improved over the final two months of the season:
His ERA went from 5.60 to 3.32 His FIP went from 4.79 to 3.95 His AVG against went from .252 to .206 His Barrel Rate went from 11.5% to 6.2% His Hard rate went from 46.1% to 36.8% His Groundball rate went from 41.7% to 47.8%But I’m not going to sell him to you as the pitcher we needed. The upside is there, but there’s a reason he’s way down most free agent boards (although, hey, he’ll probably cost more in total guarantee than Imai just got from the Astros).
No, the Cubs should still aim higher with their remaining time and money this offseason. Whether that’s a surprise move for Ranger Suarez or Framber Valdez or (more likely) a trade for someone like Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, or MacKenzie Gore, I don’t know. But signing Imanaga and Gallen and calling it a day wouldn’t quite do it for me in terms of impact/realized upside, even if the depth would certainly be appealing.
But do the Cubs have that (aiming higher) in them? They tried hard for Dylan Cease and Tatsuya Imai, but came up short twice. Will they continue their so-far-futile attempts to get their targets on exactly their terms, or will they finally step up and go over the top to get something done? Are we even sure they like any of these other starters as much as they liked Imai and Cease? I don’t know the answers to these questions.
What I do know is that for what feels like the 20th time this winter, Zac Gallen has been connected to the Cubs. So I suppose this is your warning that, whether we love the move or not, he’s clearly in play.
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