CFP Predictions: The Four Matchups That Will Define the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals  ...Middle East

What are the key matchups that will swing the results? What small things should you watch for? Who does the Opta supercomputer favor? We’ve got it all.

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

Seven of the eight remaining teams have title-winning potential, and all four quarterfinals could plausibly go either way. (I think Alabama is unlikely to beat Indiana, but even that could happen.) 

With help from Opta data, I’ve drawn up a viewing guide for all four games. What are the key matchups that will swing the results? What small things should you watch for?

Let’s discuss it. 

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No. 10 Miami (11-2) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)

The game-defining matchup: Miami’s offense vs. turnovers. The Hurricanes turned the ball over six times in their two losses to unranked Louisville and SMU. Carson Beck interceptions in the late fourth quarter or overtime keyed both of those Ls.

If there’s “good” news for the Canes before they play the best defense in the country, it’s that Ohio State hasn’t had an especially turnover-generating unit this year. Under Matt Patricia, the Buckeyes are fine letting a team plod down the field slowly, with the understanding that it’ll eventually be overmatched and just punt the ball away.

Miami’s defense can probably slow down Ohio State’s offense, thanks to an elite defensive front. But if Beck and the offense create a field position disadvantage by giving the ball away multiple times, it doesn’t matter. 

Wild card to keep an eye on: Will Ohio State’s tackles hold up? Miami edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are superstars and led an effort to sack Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed seven times in the first round.

Ohio State allowed just a 2.7% sack rate, fourth-best in the power conferences. But the Buckeyes haven’t faced guys like Bain and Mesidor. It’s showtime for left tackle Austin Siereveld and right tackle Phillip Daniels.  

No. 5 Oregon (12-1) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1)

The game-defining matchup: Texas Tech’s defensive front against Oregon’s offensive line. The Red Raiders have the best edge rusher in college football in David Bailey (33% pressure rate) and another star sack-getter across from him in Romello Height.

They have an All-American inside linebacker, Jacob Rodriguez, who defended five passes and was one of the sport’s best sideline-to-sideline stoppers. They have another All-American in defensive tackle Lee Hunter, whose 17.6% run disruption rate leads Texas Tech.

All these guys will go against an Oregon line that has shuffled through injuries all year but still overflows with talent. Left tackle Isaiah World and left guard Emmanuel Pregnon will both hear their names called in the first two or three rounds of the NFL Draft. This is best on best. 

Wild card to keep an eye on: Will Oregon’s lack of healthy receivers finally hurt? It hasn’t yet. But even after five-star freshman Dakorien Moore returned with Gary Bryant Jr. in the first round, it appears the Ducks will have all of five scholarship wideouts available for Texas Tech.

The Ducks have not really had a conventional No. 1 receiver all year, with only one player (Malik Benson, twice) clearing 100 yards in a game. It helps to have a future first-round tight end, Kenyon Sadiq, in the rotation. But I do wonder, a little bit, if it might eventually sting Oregon not to have a game-breaking receiver who can wreck a defensive plan all on his own.

Texas Tech has an elite defense, but it doesn’t have a can’t-miss, lockdown cornerback. It’s the kind of unit that will benefit acutely from Oregon not having that guy. 

No. 9 Alabama (11-3) vs. No. 1 Indiana (13-0)

The game-defining matchup: Alabama’s nonexistent running game against Indiana’s injured defensive front. The Crimson Tide have run for 83 yards in their past two games, and even that’s with my generous accounting to not include sack yardage as the NCAA does. (The official stats say Bama had 25 rushing yards against Georgia and Oklahoma.)

The return of injured RB Jam Miller in the first round did not change the outlook for a team that hasn’t run the ball well all season. Indiana has an excellent run defense but also has a problem: Stephen Daley, the edge rusher/defensive tackle swingman who led the team with 21 run stuffs, hurt himself while celebrating with fans after the Big Ten Championship.

Before, I’d have said there was zero chance Alabama could run on Indiana, whose 3.5% explosive run rate allowed led the Big Ten. Now, I’d say there’s a very small chance. 

Wild card to keep an eye on: What’s going on with Alabama’s receivers? Five-star sophomore Ryan Williams is on the cover of the College Football 26 video game. He is also Alabama’s fourth-most targeted wideout since the start of November, with just 10 catches on 21 targets in six games.

Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton and freshman Lotzeir Brooks are all catching at least 55% of their targets in that span, compared to Williams’ 47.6%. Only four receivers have even reached 80 yards against Indiana this year, and only one (Jeremiah Smith, 144) has cleared the century mark.

Does Alabama have anyone who can take the top off the Indiana defense more than once? As it’s apparently not Williams, is it Bernard? 

No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1) vs. No. 3 Georgia (12-1)

The game-defining matchup: Georgia’s pass rush vs. Ole Miss’ protection and quick release. In Ole Miss’ Week 8 loss in Athens, the Rebels scored 35 points largely thanks to keeping Trinidad Chambliss clean. They’re the only team to not give up a sack against Georgia’s defense all season.

This is an unusual Georgia defense in that it doesn’t have any pass rushers who have grabbed a lot of individual attention. Nobody has more than 4.5 sacks. Edge rusher Gabe Harris Jr. is the team’s leading pass rusher with 20 pressures, but it’s not clear if he’s playing in this game.

Who’s going to heat Chambliss this time? If the answer is “nobody,” Gunner Stockton will have to lead the Bulldogs to a lot of points again. That was fine last time (Georgia scored 43), but I’d bet Kirby Smart would prefer not to need to score into the 40s to advance to the semifinals.

This matchup will determine if we get a shootout. 

Wild card to keep an eye on: The Georgia defense on third downs. When these teams played earlier, Georgia won despite letting Ole Miss go 5 for 9 on third downs, 1 for 2 on fourth downs, and 4 for 4 on red-zone touchdowns. A Trinidad Chambliss scrambling touchdown on third-and-goal from the 7 made Dawgs fans rip out their hair.

Here’s the key stat that shows Georgia’s growth over the past few months, though: Georgia’s third-down conversion rate allowed has gone from 40.7% in September to 43.2% in October to 27.9% in November to 21.4% in the SEC Championship in December.

If the Dawgs have figured out money downs, Ole Miss will have a hard time scoring 35 again. 

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CFP Predictions: The Four Matchups That Will Define the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals  Opta Analyst.

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