Former Haas team principal Guenther Steiner is bracing for fireworks when Formula 1 kicks off in 2026.
While the paddock whispers of a new golden era, Steiner has warned that the sport’s upcoming regulation revolution is less of a smooth transition and more of a high-stakes gamble where some will inevitably go bust.
As F1 prepares to ditch the ground-effect era that defined the early 2020s, Formula 1 is set to introduce a cocktail of smaller, lighter cars and a 50/50 power split between internal combustion and electric energy.
But for Steiner, the complexity of these shape-shifting cars – featuring active aerodynamics that adjust wings on the fly – is a recipe for a massive competitive reshuffle.
The Great 2026 Reset: Outliers and Disasters
Steiner’s vision for 2026 isn't one of immediate parity. Instead, he anticipates a grid of extremes where the gap between the geniuses and the misguided could be cavernous.
“The aerodynamic rules, the chassis rules are changing, the cars get smaller and get completely different new power units,” he told Lottoland.
This isn't just a facelift; it’s a total mechanical organ transplant. Steiner is particularly intrigued – and perhaps a bit wary – of the new aero philosophy.
“There are changeable aerodynamics — on the straight, you can take downforce away, so you reduce drag and go faster."
The unpredictability is what makes Steiner both excited and cautious.
“I have no idea who will be good, who will be bad,” he added. “It’s a completely new game – nobody knows, not even the teams, because the teams only know their own car.
“Some people will get it right, and some people will not get it so right. The people not getting it right will need to catch up.
“In the beginning, there will be some outliers – some very fast cars, and maybe somebody will get it completely wrong and be slow for a year or two.”
Why the Chaos is Necessary
While the prospect of a team spending two years in the wilderness sounds grim, Steiner insists that this creative destruction is the lifeblood of Formula 1.
Without these seismic shifts, the sport risks stagnating into a procession of identical machines.
“Formula 1 always needs a change in regulations, because otherwise all the cars end up the same and you stop developing technology,” Steiner argued.
He also pointed toward the broader impact of the 2026 engine overhaul, which mandates 100% sustainable fuels.
“With the next generation of cars, sustainable fuels are being developed for the combustion engine. That could be huge for normal people on the road. Combustion engines will change, but with better, sustainable fuels, they can still have a future.”
Read also: Vasseur sees 2026 F1 development race won by ‘clever’ timingUltimately, Steiner sees the upheaval as the only way to break the current deadlock. With the current ruleset maturing, he believes the front of the grid has become too entrenched.
“Change is good. People reinvent themselves, put a lot of effort in it, and it keeps it interesting,” he noted. “If you keep the regulations as they are now, I don’t think there would be a lot of change.
“McLaren has developed such an advantage that it’s very difficult for anyone to catch up.”
In 2026, the chasing pack won't just be trying to catch up – they'll be trying to survive the outliers.
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