Broncos-Chiefs scouting report: No Patrick Mahomes. No Gardner Minshew. Hello, Chris Oladokun. ...Middle East

Broncos (12-3) at Chiefs (6-9)

When: 6:15 p.m. Thursday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

TV/radio: Prime Video, 850 AM/94.1 FM

Broncos-Chiefs series: Both Denver and Kansas City know this well. The Broncos are still down all-time to the Chiefs, at 57-73-0 in 130 total matchups in the franchises’ history. But Denver has the recent upper hand, with two straight regular-season wins and a nail-biting 22-19 win over Kansas City on Nov. 16. The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been the same since that win and subsequent bye, though.

In the spotlight: Who the Kel(ce) is Chiefs starting quarterback Chris Oladokun?

How the mighty have fallen.

On Christmas, the Broncos will take a short flight up to Kansas City to witness the death throes of a franchise that only has a couple of games left on the throne. The Chiefs will not win the AFC West for the first time in a decade, and they’ll finish with a losing record for the first time since the 2-14 days of Romeo Crennel in 2012. This may well be the last time that Denver sees 36-year-old future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, who will make a retirement decision after the season. They won’t see quarterback Patrick Mahomes — and might not next year, either — after Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in Dec. 14’s 16-13 loss to the Chargers.

To make matters worse, Kansas City’s QB stopgap Gardner Minshew hurt his knee in Sunday’s loss to the Titans. That leaves this Kansas City dynasty, for a primetime affair with the country watching on Christmas evening, turning to … Chris Oladokun.

Who?

Here’s what’s known on the 28-year-old Oladokun, from a national perspective. He played two seasons of FBS football as a backup at USF, from 2017-18. He transferred to FCS program Samford for a couple of years. He started at South Dakota State for one year after that, and played well enough (3,164 yards, 25 TDs) to warrant a seventh-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022’s draft. Oladokun was waived during roster cuts that fall, signed to Kansas City’s practice squad a few days later, and has stuck there pretty much ever since.

Now, after being promoted to the active roster after Mahomes’ injury and filling in for an injured Minshew mid-game against Tennessee — 11-for-16, 111 yards — Oladokun will make the first start of his NFL career against the current No. 1 seed in the AFC.

“It’s something I don’t take lightly,” Oladokun told Kansas City reporters Tuesday. “These opportunities don’t come around often, and so when you get ‘em, you gotta take that and run with it. So, this is not only a big game for our team, but me personally a big game, in terms of letting the league know what I can do and letting these coaches know what I can do.”

So what can he do? Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said this week that Oladokun has had an “easy transition” because of his knowledge of Kansas City’s offensive verbiage, but that they’d naturally ease back on specific formations without Mahomes. One obvious similarity: just 8% of Mahomes’ attempts this season have come from under center, in Kansas City’s shotgun-heavy offense. Just one of Oladokun’s 16 attempts against the Titans came from under center, too. That doesn’t seem destined to change.

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In his tape against the Titans, too, Oladokun showcased a bit of Mahomes flair on late first-half and early third-quarter drives, often escaping the pocket to extend plays and float catch-and-run checkdowns to open targets. He’s plenty capable of playing on time and exploiting any defensive breakdowns in the secondary, too, delivering a couple quick-hit strikes to speedy wideout Xavier Worthy for 13 and 28 yards.

One clear weakness, though, is Oladokun’s decisiveness against the rush. He took four sacks in his last seven dropbacks against the Titans on Sunday, and three on third down. This Broncos pass-rush came up with five sacks against the Jaguars last week but played below their standard, often letting Trevor Lawrence run free. Denver’s defensive front badly wants a shot at the NFL sack record — sitting at 63, nine away from the 1984 Bears’ all-time record of 72 — and can position themselves well to shoot it down Week 18 if they stay within themselves and bother Oladokun in Week 17.

“I don’t buy it,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said Monday, asked on the notion Denver’s defense is fading. “Our defense played pretty well last week. You look for those trends, and I think our defense has been outstanding this year.”

These are not the same Chiefs. They may never quite be the same Chiefs — the Reid-Mahomes-Kelce trio — ever again.

“But,” Broncos quarterback Bo Nix said Tuesday, “they’re still the Chiefs.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run: They didn’t much last week, in general. Payton drew up exactly four combined handoffs in the second half, with Denver playing from behind against Jacksonville. Rookie running back RJ Harvey continues to alternate flashes of genuine brilliance — a 38-yard pinball score against Jacksonville — with stretches of tentative between-the-tackles burst. The Chiefs just gave up 164 yards on the ground to the Titans last week, though, a slippage in an overall stout season against the run. Slight edge: Chiefs

When Broncos pass: On the flip side, Bo Nix has gone turbo, with three 300-passing-yard games in his past four outings. Nix now ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards and second (!) in overall passing attempts, as Denver’s efficiency in the pass game has ticked up across the last month. Kansas City may be without two starting corners on Christmas, as Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson both didn’t practice this week due to injury. Edge: Broncos

When Chiefs run: Kansas City’s backfield of Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt has totaled less than 50 yards in their last two matchups. The Chiefs have no real ground game at the moment, which isn’t ideal when starting a third-string quarterback. Hunt did run for 59 yards on 13 carries against the Broncos in their November matchup earlier this season, but that was primarily because Joseph defended heavily against the pass. Edge: Broncos

When Chiefs pass: Oladokun has never thrown an NFL touchdown. Plus, top receiver Rashee Rice (concussion) and deep threat Tyquan Thornton (also a concussion) aren’t playing Thursday. Edge: Broncos

Special teams: Chiefs punter Matt Araiza has deposited punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line at a 45% clip this season, and kicker Harrison Butker hasn’t missed a field goal under 50 yards since Sept. 21. Kansas City also ranks 11th in the NFL in total kick-return yardage, so there’s some general juice here. Broncos All-Pro returner Marvin Mims Jr. also danced a bit too often against Jacksonville on punt returns. Edge: Even

Coaching: It’s impossible to rule out some sort of Reid-orchestrated dark magic on Thursday, and Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will always throw the kitchen sink at Sean Payton. But the last time these Broncos faced a Chiefs team with little to play for, Payton steamrolled Kansas City’s B-team 38-0 in January 2025. The system has only gotten Kansas City so far in a 6-9 season this fall. Slight edge: Broncos

Tale of the tape

By the numbers

91: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce’s yardage total in the Broncos’ 22-19 November win over the Chiefs, Kelce’s second-highest total of the season.

66.8: Average receiving yards by starting tight ends against the Broncos’ defense the last five weeks.

7.4: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s average yards per passing attempt across his past five games.

11: Broncos rookie running back RJ Harvey’s touchdown total through 15 games this season, the most among any NFL rookie from scrimmage.

4: Chiefs All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones’ sack total through 15 games in 2025, his lowest sack total since his rookie season in 2016.

44%: Percentage of passes Chiefs QB3 Chris Oladokun threw behind the line of scrimmage against the Titans last Sunday.

X-factors

Broncos: CB Jahdae Barron. Joseph has to take the training wheels off Barron at some point, as Denver needs serious passing-game help. Barron was Denver’s only answer for Kelce in their November matchup, and the first-round rookie has played a key role as a tight-end shadow in varying degrees of usage in 2025.

Chiefs: RB Isaiah Pacheco. Pacheco’s become more involved in the past couple weeks than Hunt, catching six passes against the Titans. Both backs are still averaging under 4.0 yards per carry in 2025, and Kansas City desperately needs someone to churn out consistent yardage against Denver’s front to give Oladokun a chance.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 23, Chiefs 13

The Broncos are 2-2 on Thursday nights under Sean Payton to date and they’ve really only played well offensively in 1.5 of those games —- last year against New Orleans and in the first half against the L.A. Chargers. Two of the only times Sean Payton’s criticized his own game plan has come on TNF (2023 at KC, earlier this year against Las Vegas). But this Chiefs team is done and buried. It should be decisive, even if it’s not pretty.

Luca Evans, Broncos writer: Broncos 24, Chiefs 16

The vibes feel somewhat sinister here. It’s a Thursday of Christmas week. There’s little riding on this matchup for Kansas City, and everything riding for these Broncos. Teams with nothing to lose can generally pack a punch. But the sheer talent and success differential is much too hard to ignore, as is Kansas City’s overwhelming heap of injuries.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 26, Chiefs 10

The Broncos owe the Chiefs in the worst way. They have lost nine straight games at Arrowhead, with Kansas City delighting in embarrassing them. Time for the Broncos to go full Cobra Kai. Show no remorse. Break out a few gadget plays, aim for at least six sacks and keep the dream alive for an AFC West title and the No. 1 seed

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 22, Chiefs 17

Great holiday party game: See who in the family can name name at least two of Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun’s three college football stops without looking it up on their phones. It’s Thursday night, so it probably won’t be pretty. If the Broncos can keep Oladokun from going all Mariota on them with his legs, they should be fine. Although Al Michaels might not be after this one.

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