Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Last week’s edition can be found here.)
Accolades and accomplishments have come as frequently as made baskets for Arizona thus far.
The Wildcats have been No. 1 in the AP poll for three consecutive weeks and are one of just six undefeated teams in Division I.
They are the first team in AP poll history to beat five ranked opponents in the first nine games.
They have won seven consecutive games by at least 20 points, a feat not seen around Tucson since 1929, according to Sportradar.
They have beaten the 2025 national champion (Florida), the 2023-24 national champions (Connecticut) and the 11-time national champions (UCLA).
They blasted SEC powers Auburn and Alabama by a combined 50 points.
But if the NCAA Tournament field were selected today, the Wildcats (12-0) probably would not be the top overall seed.
In the rankings that matter most, the NCAA Evaluation Tool (i.e., NET), the Wildcats are slotted No. 2 behind Michigan.
They also trail the Wolverines (11-0) in the closely watched Pomeroy Ratings, a predictive metric based on points scored and allowed per possession (adjusted for opponent quality).
What separates the Wildcats and Wolverines?
It’s not quality wins. Arizona has defeated five teams in the top 50 of the latest NET rankings (Connecticut, Alabama, Florida, Auburn and UCLA), whereas Michigan has beaten just three (Villanova, Gonzaga and Auburn).
On the margins, there are several slight differences. For example, Michigan’s 40-point victory over Gonzaga — a late-November result we still cannot comprehend — boosts its efficiency metrics in a fashion unequaled by any of Arizona’s wins.
But at the heart of the disparity between resumes, it seems, is the number of creampuffs consumed.
The Wildcats have six Quadrant IV wins (the lowest quality), which represents 50 percent of their total victory count: Abilene Christian, Denver, Utah Tech, Norfolk State, Northern Arizona and Bethune-Cookman.
The Wolverines have two Quadrant IV wins that account for just 18 percent of their wins: Rutgers and La Salle.
In NET rankings as in waistlines, cupcakes turn into fat. And the algorithm powering the NET does not like fat.
Nor do the Pomeroy Ratings, where Michigan’s non-conference schedule is ranked 16th nationally, 53 spots higher than Arizona’s non-conference lineup.
Will the dynamic change by Selection Sunday? Probably not. Arizona’s final non-conference date is with South Dakota State while Michigan faces McNeese State before plunging into round-robin play.
Will the difference matter on Selection Sunday? That’s unknowable, in large part because the Wolverines and Wildcats might not hold their spots atop the NET on March 15.
But let’s imagine the next three months play out in similar fashion to the previous two, with Michigan edging the Wildcats for the No. 1 overall seed.
In that situation, the S-curve seeding format would pair the Wolverines with the weakest of the No. 2 seeds (eighth overall) and Arizona would draw the second-weakest of the No. 2 seeds (seventh overall).
At least in theory. The strict rules governing placement of the teams in the bracket could force the selection committee to flip opponents. Last year, Auburn, the top overall seed, was placed in the same bracket with the seventh overall seed, Michigan State.
In other words, Arizona’s position relative to Michigan at this point likely will have little bearing on the paths awaiting teams in March.
But the high percentage of creampuffs on the Wildcats’ non-conference schedule could play a role in their overall seed, especially if a few of the high-profile wins in November and December end up carrying less resume rocket fuel than expected.
If UCLA struggles in the Big Ten, if Florida or Auburn struggles in the SEC, then results currently booked as Quadrant I wins could become Quad II wins, and Quad II wins could morph into Quad III wins.
After all, every seed matters. Had the Wildcats been a spot or two higher last spring, they might have avoided Duke until the Elite Eight, or altogether.
So here’s the plan: We’ll take Arizona’s seven Quadrant IV wins — that presumes a victory over South Dakota State next week — and stuff ’em in the back pocket, then enjoy what should be a riveting run through the Big 12.
If developments take an unexpected turn on the third Sunday in March, we can refer back to the matter for context.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (12-0)
Results: beat Abilene Christian 96-62, San Diego State 68-45 and Bethune-Cookman 107-71 NET ranking: No. 2 Comment: The Wildcats had six different high scorers in their first seven games, but one player, Brayden Burries, has led the way in three of the past four (with at least 20 points each time). (Previous: 1)
2. Iowa State (12-0)
Results: beat Long Beach State 91-60 NET ranking: No. 4 Comment: Better-than-decent chance the Cyclones are 16-0 when they visit Kansas in three-and-a-half weeks. (The only dangerous game on their path is an early-January trip to Baylor.) It’s also possible that they are ranked No. 1 upon entering Allen Fieldhouse. (Previous: 2)
3. Houston (11-1)
Results: beat Arkansas 94-85 NET ranking: No. 14 Comment: Life in 16-team conferences: The Cougars don’t play Arizona, Iowa State or BYU until February — and they only play each of them once. (Previous: 3)
4. Texas Tech (9-3)
Results: beat Northern Colorado 101-90 and Duke 82-81 NET ranking: No. 24 Comment: The Red Raiders’ conquest of Duke doesn’t qualify as the Big 12’s best non-conference victory, not with Arizona winning at UConn and Iowa State blasting Purdue, but it’s in the discussion. (Previous: 6)
5. BYU (12-1)
Results: beat Pacific 93-57, Abilene Christian 85-67 and Eastern Washington 109-81 NET ranking: No. 9 Comment: Speaking of manageable stretches, BYU should roll into Lubbock in the middle of January with a 17-1 record and, potentially, a top-five ranking. (Previous: 4)
6. Kansas (10-3)
Results: beat Towson 73-49 and Davidson 90-61 NET ranking: No. 15 Comment: For all the talk about the gauntlet Arizona has navigated to this point, Kansas’ non-conference schedule actually ranks as the toughest in the Big 12, according to KenPom.com. (Previous: 5)
7. Baylor (9-2)
Results: beat Alcorn State 113-56 and Southern 111-67 NET ranking: No. 39 Comment: Easy to see the pothole looming for Baylor when Selection Sunday arrives: The Bears have six Quadrant IV wins, and there are more to come. (Previous: 9)
8. Colorado (10-2)
Results: beat Portland State 84-73, lost to Stanford 77-68 NET ranking: No. 60 Comment: Losing to Stanford when the Buffaloes are in the Big 12 and the Cardinal are in the ACC isn’t nearly the resume stain it was when both were in the Pac-12. (Previous: 8)
9. Oklahoma State (11-1)
Results: beat Kansas City 91-79 and Cal State Fullerton 94-89 NET ranking: No. 72 Comment: Reality will whack the Cowboys soon enough, with trips to Lubbock and Ames in the first week of conference play. Until then, they should enjoy the success … and the cupcakes. (Previous: 10)
10. TCU (9-3)
Results: beat Oral Roberts 72-53 and Florida A&M 80-56 NET ranking: No. 66 Comment: The loss to New Orleans is a well-documented hole in TCU’s resume. But six Quadrant IV victories are deeply problematic, as well. (Previous: 11)
11. UCF (10-1)
Results: beat Mercer 81-63 and Florida Gulf Coast 102-80 NET ranking: No. 33 Comment: The Knights are atop the list of teams likely to experience the greatest downturn once conference play begins. Oklahoma State and Colorado are close behind. (Previous: 12)
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Results: lost at UCLA 90-77 and to Oregon State 78-75 NET ranking: No. 82 Comment: We fully expected the Sun Devils to suffer an inexplicable loss at some point in non-conference play. The only surprise is that it took until Dec. 21 to materialize, although Oregon State would not have been our first pick to inflict the damage. (Previous: 7)
13. West Virginia (9-4)
Results: beat Mississippi Valley State 86-51 NET ranking: No. 95 Comment: By the time conference play begins Jan. 2 (at Iowa State), the Mountaineers will have played one game in three weeks. (Previous: 13)
14. Kansas State (8-4)
Results: beat South Dakota 106-76 NET ranking: No. 53 Comment: The one-point loss to Nebraska in Kansas City in mid-November certainly looks better now than it did at the time. The Cornhuskers (12-0) are one of the nation’s biggest surprises. (Previous: 14)
15. Utah (8-4)
Results: beat Eastern Washington 101-77 NET ranking: No. 139 Comment: The Utes aren’t so much a drag on the Big 12’s collective NET so much as they are a five-ton anchor. A victory next week at Washington would help change the metrics. (Previous: 15)
16. Cincinnati (7-5)
Results: beat Alabama State 88-51, lost to Clemson 68-65 NET ranking: No. 108 Comment: The Big 12 has four Quadrant IV losses. Cincinnati owns one of them: an eight-point home loss to Eastern Michigan that makes less sense with each passing week. (Previous: 16)
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