“In this corner …” Yes, the 2025 FCS championship game feels like a title bout. To analyze Montana State vs. Illinois State, we look at the tale of the tape for when each team has the ball.
With its playoff nemesis out of the picture, Montana State may have destiny on its side as it heads to the 2025 FCS championship game.
Unless, that is, Illinois State is actually the team of destiny.
A case can be made for both programs, who will meet for the first time in a fascinating championship matchup the night of Jan. 5 at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.
Second-seeded Montana State (13-2) is in the final for the third time in the last five seasons, and this time it doesn’t have to face North Dakota State, which has eliminated the Bobcats six times in the playoffs since 2010, including the 2021 and ’24 title games.
Unseeded Illinois State (12-4) took out NDSU in the second round and has continued along the path to become the first team to win four road games in playoff history.
Montana State is the favorite – opening with an 84.1% win probability, according to Opta advanced data – but the Redbirds have been the underdog in each playoff win, so they surely feel confident with the way they stack up in a tale of the tape.
Montana State has opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Illinois State heading toward the 2025 FCS championship game on Jan. 5 in Nashville, Tennessee.Who ya got?
— Opta FCS Football (@OptaAnalystFCS) December 21, 2025When Montana State Has the Ball
The Big Sky champion Bobcats use the run to set up the pass, ranking No. 4 in the FCS in rushing yards per game (234.5), and they’ve been in the top 10 in each of their last six seasons. A physical offensive line delivers for the only pair of FCS teammates to each be over 1,000 rushing yards this season, Julius Davis (1,100) and Adam Jones (1,047). The hot hand is Jones, who’s been over 100 rushing yards in each of the team’s three playoff games.
Transfer quarterback Justin Lamson has been the perfect addition to the MSU lineup following the graduation of long-time starter Tommy Mellott, able to step up in the pocket and evade pass rushers. He’s rushed for 704 yards and 14 touchdowns (one shy of Jones’ ground total).
Lamson also is the FCS’ second-most accurate passer (72.0%). His go-to receiver is Taco Dowler, who had an 87-yard scoring reception in a semifinal-round win over Montana, pushing him to 69 catches for 914 yards and six touchdowns this season.
Middle linebacker Tye Niekamp (155 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss) anchors the Illinois State defense, joined on the Stats Perform FCS All-America team by cornerback Shadwel Nkuba II (six takeaways). The Redbirds are surrendering 19.0 points per game in the playoffs, down eight from the regular season. They’ve allowed just under 100 rushing yards per game and forced nine turnovers across the four wins.
When Illinois State Has the Ball
Redbirds quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse has accounted for 44 touchdowns this season – 36 through the air, seven on the ground, even one via catch. The TD reception occurred in the first round on a pass from wide receiver Daniel Sobkowicz, which isn’t surprising given the pair’s chemistry.
Sobkowicz has 29 receptions, 413 yards and seven TDs in the playoffs, pushing his season line to 78/1,089/18 in 14 games. In 50 career games, he’s caught 40 touchdowns, passed for three and rushed for one more.
The Missouri Valley squad has six players with at least 23 receptions. Dylan Lord is second to Sobkowicz with 61.
Running back Victor Dawson has been a difference-making workhorse in the playoffs with 97 carries (41 more than any other FCS player) for 512 yards. He set career highs with 34 carries and 155 yards, and he scored a TD, in a semifinal-round win over Villanova.
Montana State is allowing 18.0 points and 347.3 yards per game in three playoff wins – up from the regular season – but the Bobcats also have nine sacks and forced eight turnovers. Big Sky defensive player of the year Caden Dowler (safety), who was injured against Montana, and defensive linemen Paul Brott and Kenneth Eiden IV are All-Americans, while linebacker Cole Taylor has a team-high 91 tackles.
Photos from the Associated Press, Montana State Athletics and Illinois State Athletics For more FCS football coverage, follow on social media at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
FCS Championship Game: Montana State vs. Illinois State Tale of the Tape Opta Analyst.
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