Three major challenges for Starmer as leadership speculation accelerates ...Middle East

Sir Keir Starmer enters 2026 facing multiple challenges that are raising questions about the future of his premiership.

Labour is trailing in the polls behind Reform UK, internal divisions are growing, and the party faces a challenging set of local and devolved elections in May.

Polling highlights the scale of the challenge. A recent YouGov survey put Reform on 28 per cent, well ahead of Labour on 18 per cent and the Conservatives on 17 per cent.

Starmer’s personal ratings are similarly weak: YouGov found that only 22 per cent of voters view him favourably, while 69 per cent see him negatively.

Difficult May elections

Labour faces a series of elections in May that will test its strength at multiple levels.

The polls will be held at councils across England, as well as in the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, and are widely regarded as a barometer of public sentiment ahead of the next general election.

The primary concern for Labour is the rise of Reform UK, which continues to poll well above the party nationally.

In 2025, Reform won 677 seats and took control of 10 councils, while Labour gained 98 seats and only one council. The results marked Labour’s lowest proportion of local seats in over 20 years, down from 7 per cent in 2015.

The biggest challenge next year is likely to come in Wales, which is set to become a two-horse race between the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and Reform, ending decades of Labour dominance in the nation.

A recent YouGov poll for Cardiff University put Labour on just 10 per cent of the vote, while Plaid Cymru and Reform are on 33 and 30 per cent respectively.

Commenting on the polling, one Labour MP told The i Paper: “This is extinction-level stuff. I personally can’t see a scenario where he takes us into the next election.

“I even wonder whether he might just decide to do what is right himself and step down to allow for someone else to come in.”

The other growing concern for Labour is the Green Party, under the leadership of Zack Polanski, which is squeezing Labour from the left.

YouGov polling currently puts the party on 17 per cent, just one point behind Labour.

Leadership pressure

As Starmer’s popularity weakens, speculation is already turning to who could replace him.

There have been talks that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, and his former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner could all be in the running to replace him if a leadership election were triggered.

Polling suggests that Starmer could struggle in any such contest. A recent poll by Survation for LabourList found that, in head-to-head contests, Burnham would win by 26 points, Angela Rayner by 19, Ed Miliband by four, while Wes Streeting holds a narrow edge within the margin of error.

Crucially, over half of Labour members polled (54 per cent) said a new leader should be in place before the next general election.

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said the membership is “now openly questioning if Starmer is still the right person to lead the party. The polling makes clear that dissatisfaction is no longer behind closed doors.”

There are signs of that pressure already. In November, anonymous No 10 figures briefed that Streeting was preparing a leadership challenge, including reports that he could call for Starmer to resign after the Budget.

Streeting denied the claims, telling LBC at the time: “I think this is daft. Someone in Downing Street has been watching too much Celebrity Traitors.”

At Prime Minister’s Questions, Starmer defended his team, calling attacks on Cabinet ministers “completely unacceptable,” but avoided confirming whether he still had confidence in his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.

The episode highlighted a growing sense of unease inside Labour and the potential for internal conflict to spill into the public domain.

Potential MP Rebellions

Labour also faces potential backbench rebellions over policy in the new year, which could increase scrutiny on Starmer’s leadership.

Plans to reform the special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) system and proposals to limit jury trials for specific criminal sentences have already drawn criticism from MPs and campaigners.

The Budget announced that SEND funding would be absorbed into overall government spending limits by 2028. Crucially, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that mainstream school spending per pupil could fall by 4.9 per cent in real terms.

Multiple Labour MPs have already spoken out against the change, and parents and advocacy groups have also raised concerns.

Stephen Kingdom of the Disabled Children’s Partnership said: “If the Government thinks SEND reforms can succeed quickly while delivering savings of that magnitude, it is misguided.”

It was also announced earlier this year that Justice Secretary David Lammy’s plan to limit jury trials for criminals sentenced to less than three years has prompted similar dissent.

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A letter from 38 Labour MPs, including Diane Abbott, described the proposals as “ineffective” and warned they would create more problems than they solve.

Karl Turner, who spearheaded the letter, said: “The drastic restriction of the right to trial by jury is not a silver bullet.”

These issues illustrate that even if Starmer survives internal leadership pressure, he faces potential rebellions from MPs on multiple fronts, leaving him with limited room for manoeuvre as he approaches the May elections.

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