Although the free agent relief market has been extremely active of late, the free agent starter market hasn’t really gotten going. Dylan Cease’s big deal with the Blue Jays was over two weeks ago, and none of the other big-name free agent starters have signed since (unless you count Merrill Kelly). Until tonight!
According to multiple reports, rumored Cubs free agent target Michael King has a new home. Well, an old home, new again.
Let me state that more clearly: He’s going back to the Padres.
Breaking: Michael King has agreed to a three-year deal with the Padres, per source. The deal includes player options for 2027 and 2028.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 19, 2025At three years and $75 million, his deal appears light in both years and total dollars, but note that it carries a strong AAV and also comes with two opt-outs, after year one and two. So, assuming there are no significant deferrals (and that he’ll be paid a good portion of his salary in the first two years), this is a very solid get for Michael King.
Remember, he’s got enough of a reason (significant upside, injured/middling walk year, relative youth) to bet on himself. And he gets two cracks at it while securing a solid AAV in the process. And for that reason, it’s an interesting bet for the Padres, who you can just never predict. They were not really considered big threats to re-sign Michael King … or spend much money at all, actually, but now they’re handing out a $25M AAV to a pitcher who will stay if he struggles or gets hurt, but will almost certainly be willing to leave if he’s even reasonably healthy and effective. I guess that’s A.J. Preller for you … never predictable, never sits on his hands, never afraid of a risk. It doesn’t always work out for him, but it’s entertaining.
But with that said, I’m not very sure what the rest of the Padres’ offseason will or should look like. Are they still looking to trade away some salary? Are they going to get more aggressive from here? Who could confidently say they know what Preller is going to do?
© Denis Poroy-Imagn ImagesMichael King Re-Signs with Padres
As a reminder, Michael King was dealt to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade ahead of the 2024 season and spent the last two years pitching (very well) in the Padres’ rotation. He was especially good in 2024, which is something we discussed often when he was brought up as a Cubs target (over and over and over):
In his first season with the Padres (2024), King finished with a 2.95 ERA (3.33 FIP) over 31 starts and 173.2 innings of work. And that came along with truly excellent peripherals: 27.7% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate, 6.2 barrel%, 87.8 MPH EV. In fact, that performance earned him down-ballot Cy Young votes, finishing 7th in the National League.
Of course, that comes with the important caveat from his 2025 season:
Last year, King still had a solid 3.44 ERA, but that came with much weaker peripherals (4.42 FIP) and over only 15 starts, as he was twice sidelined with injuries (shoulder, knee). He’s had other injuries in his career, as well, including a finger injury in 2021 and an elbow injury in 2022.
Yes, he finished the season healthy (and with 7.2 scoreless innings of work over two starts), but you can see why there’d be some concern. He’s a pretty clear definition of when he’s healthy, he’ll probably dominate … but will he be healthy?
In any case, this is a significant mover for the Cubs’ interests this offseason. They aren’t just in the market for a starting pitcher; they’ve also been heavily connected to Michael King, specifically. So it’s not just that their options were reduced by one (without an expected buyer/competitor coming off the board), it’s also that one of the guys they reportedly really liked went somewhere else.
The remaining (more exciting) options in free agency include Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Zac Gallen, among others. The trade market is thought to be relatively full, as well (MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Kris Bubic, and others). The Cubs do need to get one of these guys, but they do still have options.
Of course, that’s what I told myself when the first of the big free agent closers signed….
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