Jacksonville’s rise from fringe playoff team to division leader has been fueled by cleaning up sloppy plays on offense, new and impactful players, Trevor Lawrence’s improvement and an opportunistic defense. But can they sustain it?
Before the 2025 season began, the Opta supercomputer predicted the Jacksonville Jaguars would be the surprise breakout team of the year.
It projected a 10-win season and gave the Jaguars an 8.1% to win the Super Bowl. And at times, that forecast has looked too optimistic.
But with a five-game winning streak in the second half of the season, Liam Coen’s squad has made the supercomputer look smart. The 10-4 Jaguars entered Wednesday with a 92.5% chance to make the playoffs, a 47.7% chance to win the AFC South, and a 6.4% chance to win the Super Bowl.
The rise from fringe playoff team to division leader has been fueled by cleaning up sloppy plays on offense, new and impactful players, improvements by quarterback Trevor Lawrence and a defense that helped keep the offense on the field to rack up points.
The season isn’t over yet, though. The Jaguars haven’t clinched anything and still have two tough matchups left against good defenses on playoff-caliber teams in the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts before playing the lowly Tennessee Titans in Week 18.
Jacksonville needs to keep doing what worked well over the past five weeks if it wants a spot in the playoffs – either as a division winner or as a wild-card team.
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Jacksonville had the sloppiest passing offense through the first eight weeks.
Drops, tipped balls, aborted plays, bad snaps and general miscommunication between Trevor Lawrence and his receivers plagued the offense, resulting in a league-high 14.4% sloppy play rate.
But over the past seven weeks, that number has dropped to 10.4% – a four-point improvement that ranks 16th leaguewide over that timeframe.
The passing game still isn’t perfect. Lawrence’s 4.69% drop rate since Week 9 ranks seventh among 33 quarterbacks with at least 95 attempts, but that’s nearly three percentage points lower than it was early in the season. Jacksonville still ranks third in dropped passes over that span (11), yet that’s almost half as many as the 21 it had through Week 8.
More importantly, Lawrence is on the same page as his pass catchers now. The Jaguars reduced general miscommunication by a third and have not had a single aborted play in the second half of the season.
Over his last three games, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick has thrown for nine touchdowns and no picks. In Sunday’s 48-20 rout of the New York Jets, he became the first player to throw for at least five touchdowns while also running for a TD since Drew Brees in 2019.
The biggest difference for Lawrence is that he has taken better care of the ball and elevated his game on deeper throws.
Through Week 12, Lawrence had thrown 16 pickable passes (passes that could’ve been, should’ve been or were intercepted) in 360 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways) for a 4.44 pickable pass percentage that was the 14th highest (or worst).
But since throwing three interceptions in a 27-24 overtime win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12, he’s thrown just one such pass in 84 attempts for a 1.19 pickable pass rate. That’s the best mark in the league among QBs since at least 60 adjusted attempts over that span.
On passes of 10 or more air yards, Lawrence now ranks in the top five among 35 qualified quarterbacks in completion rate, well-thrown rate, and catchable-ball rate. In the first half of the season, he ranked 30th (of 36) in completion percentage on those same throws.
Those passes matter, as Lawrence can build longer drives and create explosive downfield plays. Some of that is on him, but he’s also seen more help from his supporting cast.
New Offensive Weapons
The team’s passing attack has gone through a lot of changes over the past seven weeks.
Injuries to receivers Travis Hunter (ACL) and Brian Thomas (ankle) initially looked like devastating blows. Instead, they reshaped the passing game in productive ways.
Parker Washington emerged as a reliable target, the addition of veteran Jakobi Meyers stabilized the passing game as a whole and tight end Brenton Strange returned as a safety valve – all of which allowed Thomas to slide into a more efficient role upon his return.
Washington wasn’t a big part of the offense before the Hunter and Thomas injuries, but he turned into a staple once those two were out of the lineup.
While Washington wasn’t great at the beginning of the year with three drops and a 0.773 catch rating, he hasn’t dropped a pass since Week 7 and his 0.978 catch rating is first among 52 receivers with at least 30 targets over that span since Week 9.
While he had a slow start to his integration, Meyers’ addition has been a revelation. He’s been one of Lawrence’s most reliable targets this year, with a 0.947 catch rating and a 73.7% burn rate since Week 10. Those numbers rank third and fourth, respectively, among receivers over the past six weeks. He’s also dropped just one pass.
Strange returned from injured reserve in Week 12 and immediately became a key safety net for Lawrence. The tight end has had just one drop over the past four weeks and ranks in the top 10 in burn rate, burn yards per target and open rate among 25 tight ends with at least 15 targets since Week 12.
Thomas, meanwhile, started the year with a league-high eight drops and a league-low 0.684 catch rating. Since then, he has just one drop and a solid, if not spectacular, 0.750 catch rating. This is a huge improvement that’s led directly to on-field production, as Thomas caught nine receptions for 181 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets over the past three weeks.
The Jaguars were stymied by their own ineffectiveness early on. With that reverse, however, Lawrence and company have averaged 12 more points per game since Week 9 than they did from the first eight weeks of the season.
Opportunistic Defense
Similar to the Chicago Bears, the Jaguars have been very opportunistic defensively and they’re tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the third-best turnover differential at plus-10. The defense is second overall in takeaways with 26 (18 interceptions and eight recovered fumbles), with 16 turnovers themselves (tied for 18th-most).
Those takeaways have paid dividends for the offense, too.
Jacksonville ranks fifth in average starting field position and eighth in average time of possession at 31:10. They’re also holding onto the ball the sixth longest in the second half of games at 16:09.
Even better, the Jaguars’ takeaways have led to 25.8% of their points scored this year. They’re tied with the Bears in points scored off turnovers with 97, which is just one point behind the Steelers for No. 1 in the NFL.
Tough Test Looms
Everything is looking good for Jacksonville right now, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to cruise into the postseason.
The Jaguars have a pair of tough road tests at Denver and Indianapolis before playing the visiting Tennessee Titans in the finale. The supercomputer gives the Broncos a 56.0% probability of beating Jacksonville in Week 16.
Jacksonville doesn’t need to reinvent itself to close out the season. It needs to keep doing what sparked this run: limit self-inflicted mistakes, capitalize on defensive takeaways and let Lawrence lean on his new weapons to fuel fruitful offensive drives.
If the Jaguars do that, a playoff berth – whether as a division winner or wild card – should follow. And while they may not yet be a finished product, Jacksonville has shown enough over the past five weeks to prove this isn’t just a hot streak.
It’s a team learning how to win and doing it at exactly the right time.
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Are the Jaguars the AFC South’s Biggest Surprise, or Something Much More? Opta Analyst.
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