“Sometimes I wake up, and I ask myself: was that a bad dream? No, it’s a nightmare. And it’s been taking place every night for the past four years. Not just for Ukraine but for us all.” This was Friedrich Merz, holding back tears as he stood next to Volodymyr Zelensky in Berlin a few days ago.
The German Chancellor had assembled the leaders of Europe’s major countries and institutions – the coalition of the willing and desperate – as they tried yet again to shore up Ukraine’s position in the face of Donald Trump’s alliance with Vladimir Putin.
Merz’s emotional outburst was telling, but it left many Germans cold. Even before he took office, many voters had decided not to give him a chance. In a long career in politics, plus some dabbling in business, he has left a trail of enemies. He rarely gets a good press. He shoots from the hip, making some crass comments. He overpromises and has, on the domestic front, so far under-delivered.
Yet the criticism is, dare I say it as an ardent Germanophile, typical German jammern (moaning). Merz is the best thing Europe has got in its last-gasp attempt to save liberal democracy.
The penny should have dropped in February when Vice-President JD Vance unleashed a bilious attack on European values at the Munich Security Conference. Vance made clear the administration’s support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has been love-bombing conservative circles in Washington. They are not a million miles from taking power in a few years’ time, which is exactly what Trump wants, alongside Europe’s other far-right parties, including Reform UK.
Throughout 2026, many in Germany and in Europe have been hoping that somehow things would return to “normal”. Publication last week of the US National Security Strategy has removed any lingering wishful thinking.
Zelensky, left, with Starmer, Macron and Merz after their meeting earlier this month (Photo: AP Photo/Kin Cheung, File)Initially Merz responded cautiously, but the more it became clear that Washington now sees Moscow as a reliable business partner, ally and even friend, the Chancellor admitted: “Pax Americana is over.” Eight decades of assumptions about American support for European stability and democracy have been blown asunder. “It no longer exists in the way we knew it.” Merz also suggested that a US withdrawal from Nato may now be only a matter of time.
There are two types of conversations going on in the German capital. The private one among security and defence officials, to which I’ve been privy from time to time, is fully open about the multiple dangers.
Officials are clear that Russia is already waging hybrid war on Europe – through espionage, sabotage (the case of the DHL flight carrying an incendiary device was just the start, they say), disinformation and cyber-attacks. And it is preparing for actual war. Production of ammunition, tanks and drones far outstrips EU and Nato member states. Some 1.5 million soldiers are being prepared for action. All of this is taking place as the US makes clear it will not defend Europe. Even its nuclear umbrella is no longer deemed reliable.
Zelensky and Trump representative Witkoff at the Chancellery in Berlin, where they met this week for talks on how to end Russia’s war in Ukraine (Photo: Lisi Niesner/AFP via Getty Images)The dilemma is how much to divulge to the public. It’s not just national security concerns but striking the right balance between awareness and panic. As one German official put, when asked if he could sleep at night: “My biggest worry is complacency, is people not understanding the new dynamics – not just Russia, not just China but Trump. If I stopped to think about it too hard, I really wouldn’t sleep. I just try to get on with my work.”
For the moment, in public, it remains Plan A: hug the Americans close. Express concerns, for sure, but do not suggest that a divorce is imminent. Hold your nose and shower Trump with praise. This, as one official admitted, produces a legitimacy problem, “because we’re not being honest with our people, and our attempts to keep on the right side of Trump come across as appeasement”. Yet they have no choice because it will take years to become militarily self-sufficient, if it is ever achieved. “Nobody wants to talk about Plan B, because we haven’t got one. Everyone know how dependent on the US we still are and will remain for years to come.”
Germany is rearming fast. By 2029, spending will be the equivalent of France and the UK put together (the frustration in Berlin with the slow pace of the British defence uplift is beginning to become apparent).
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Nevertheless, if there is one silver lining, it is the extent to which the three big players in Europe have come together. The leaders of Germany, France and the UK share stuttering economies, a surly electorate and pro-Kremlin and pro-Trump extremists bidding for power. Unlike Keir Starmer, with his huge parliamentary majority only 18 months ago, and Emmanuel Macron, who enjoyed considerable goodwill and powers until he squandered them, Merz had no political credits in the bank to begin with.
It is he who is showing the greatest steel. One of his associates says of him: “Merz has guts. He’s unpredictable. That’s remarkable for a modern German politician.” Europe has got a tough new Germany. But will that be enough?
John Kampfner is a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and former Executive Director of the UK in the World project at Chatham House
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