Although there’s still a whole lot of the free agent class left to shake out, and prices do often get squeezed the deeper you get into the postseason, we do now have a whole lot of data points for the current market.
With that as the backdrop, Jesse Rogers wrote up the top four remaining positional free agents – Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Cody Bellinger – and got input from Kiley McDaniel on how, or if, the contract projections on those guys have changed since the start of the offseason. All but Tucker’s (massive) projection were upwardly revised, and I know which one interests you most:
“Also limited because of an injury in 2025, Bregman appeared in just 114 games but has played in at least 155 games five times in his career. Before his fWAR fell to 3.5 last season, he had posted at least 4.0 WAR in each of the previous three seasons. He’s also just one year removed from winning a Gold Glove at third base. Bregman has also been on base over 35% of the time each year over the latter half of his career while striking out more than 90 times just once — in 2017.
But as the oldest of the group (he turns 32 in March), he won’t be in line for a decade-long deal with whichever team signs him.
‘His eye at the plate is underrated,’ the executive said. ‘Look at his walk-to-strikeout totals. That should age well.’
The seven-year, $175 million deal Marcus Semien signed entering his age-31 season is a good starting point when looking for comps. Bregman might not get the same length that Semien received, but Bregman’s annual salary should easily beat the $25 million per year Semien is getting.
McDaniel’s original projection: Five years, $160 million
McDaniel’s updated projection: Five years, $170 million (or six years to lower the AAV)”
So, following deals like the ones Kyle Schwarber (5/$150M) and Pete Alonso (5/$155M) got, Alex Bregman’s projection gets a boost to a level where he’s beating those contracts pretty solidly.
On the one hand, I certainly would understand an argument that, if those two bat-only guys are worth the deals they got, an exceptional infield defender should be able to get more if the offensive production is remotely close. Of course, that’s where the problem comes, since the offensive production is not particularly close (125 wRC+ this past season for Bregman, 141 for Alonso, and 152 for Schwarber).
I think the defensive value – and, critically, the value of having a high-quality bat at third base or second base, as opposed to DH or maybe first base – raises Bregman’s price tag significantly over what you might expect based solely on the offensive projection. But enough to top the other two deals? When the Schwarber deal seems largely based on the projection that he’s truly become something fundamentally different at the plate and that can carry forward several years? When the Alonso deal feels like a desperate and massive overpay by the O’s?
Where Will Alex Bregman’s Contract Actually Land?
Some of this, yes, is me trying to talk the price tag down in my head because I know in my heart of hearts that the Chicago Cubs simply are not giving a 32-year-old Alex Bregman a five-year, $170 million deal (seriously, though, how is any team?). But as we discussed before on the possible suitors and how they might view his price tag this year after last year’s free agency:
The Red Sox not only offered Bregman a contract last year, they actually signed him. Might happen again. But, even though he was only about to turn 31, the Red Sox limited it to a three-year offer at a large AAV, with an opt-out after the first year. The Qualifying Offer was a factor then and isn’t now, but Bregman is also a year older. The Red Sox went super short-term last time around, and there’s no reason to believe they’d suddenly change course this time around if they didn’t have to.
Also, I think it’s important to reiterate how much Bregman’s deal with the Red Sox was actually worth, when the massive deferrals were calculated in: three years and about $90 million. That AAV is still pretty premium, and more than Bregman could realistically hope for on a very long-term deal. But still, it’s not like the Red Sox blew him away with some huge deal. They gave him a decent AAV, and, critically, offered him an opt-out after the first year.
I think they are probably staying very short-term again, and I think it probably annoys Boras and Bregman.
Of course, the Cubs’ offer to Bregman last year was only one year longer, at a slightly lower AAV (reportedly four years and $115 million, but with no deferrals, and an opt-out after year two). I doubt the Cubs would go much higher this time, even without the Qualifying Offer attached, because Bregman is a year older and did have some injury issues this past season. For all we know, the Cubs have offered up that same deal, and are sitting tight on the hope and expectation that the Red Sox won’t beat it this time around.
The Tigers, incidentally, are the only other known suitor and also the only other club known to have made a longer-term offer last time around (six years and $171.5 million). From their perspective, I kinda wonder if they just chop off a year and make him the same AAV offer, but over five years instead of six. Because if they offered him a clean six years and $171.5 million this time around, I think Bregman would have a hard time justifying passing, as he heads into his age-32 season.
So, then, you’re talking about Alex Bregman having a good-not-great platform year, in which he played only 114 games due to injury, in his age-31 season … and then his offers are going to go massively UP the next year? Yeah, the Qualifying Offer isn’t attached now, but that’s a drag on value to the tune of what, $10 million? The math just ain’t mathing here.
If Bregman does indeed massively blow out his offers from last year, the explanation would have to be either macro (there’s just more money flowing this offseason than last, and the market dynamics are such that more bidders are willing to be more aggressive) and/or data-driven (things Bregman showed under the hood in Boston lead teams to believe, fundamentally, that he’ll age much better than they had previously believed). I’m not aware of either of those items being in play, but I guess we’ll see.
As far as the Cubs go, I’ll keep saying it: we know they like Alex Bregman, and I do believe they’re in the mix. But I do not believe they’re going to lead the market on this, and I suspect that they are involved only to the extent that they can get a great value on a deal *AND* coordinate the signing with a trade that brings in a starting pitcher (as opposed to signing a free agent starter to a significant price tag, which I think would take them out on Bregman, budgetarily speaking).
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