Despite Chicago’s snowiest start to the season in 47 years, the chances of a white Christmas are looking bleak.
After a weekend with dangerously low wind chills, the jet stream is going to undergo a major pattern flip next week.
Temperatures will climb above freezing Tuesday afternoon, and it’s likely we have daily highs above freezing each day thereafter through Christmas Day.
Once the jet stream lifts northward and flattens out (moves move west-to-east versus north-south), we’ll enter in a quiet and mild pattern. We have one more trough, or dip in the jet stream, around Thursday, Dec. 18, which would bring us rain and drop the temperatures from the 40s back to the 30s.
Long range forecast models are all showing the same trend; highs ranging from near 40 to 50 degrees through Christmas Day.
Why the drastic flip?
We are still in a La Nina pattern, and there are still disruptions to the polar vortex that could send us back into a cold & snowy pattern after Christmas heading into January.
However, short-term pattern teleconnections in the jet stream will be giving us a temporary break from the cold (i.e. negative phasing of the Polar North American oscillation and positive phasing of the North Atlantic Oscillation). These are shifts that typically happen every 2 or 3 weeks.
Above-average temperatures are expected for nearly every state over the next two weeks.
It’s the one time of year people say they hope it snows, but unfortunately Christmas Day could very well be in the 40s with no snow on the ground.
Despite the waning chances of a white Christmas, the Chicago area is still likely to see plenty more snow into the New Year.
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